El Nino will persist into early 2003. (Affecting Sustainable Development).

The current El Nino event striking the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific basin is expected to persist into early 2003, says the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its latest El Nino Outlook. While it is not expected to reach the strength of the 1997-1998 event, conditions in the tropical Pacific are likely to be sufficiently anomalous to create substantial consequences in some regions.

This development calls for proactive measures to reduce vulnerability and strengthen capacity to decrease the impact of floods and droughts, as recognized in the Plan of Implementation discussed at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg.

Some unusual climate patterns observed recently could likely be related, at least in part, to the basin-wide El Nino that has developed in the tropical Pacific. However, the climate system functions by integrating many factors in addition to El Nino. Thus, in the case of this relatively weak episode so far, it can be difficult to attribute to it with confidence individual abnormal climate patterns or weather events that have been observed recently in the Pacific and Pacific-rim countries. This is certainly the case for several abnormal weather events that have been observed further afield.

While recent floods in China, India and Bangladesh may well be linked to the El Nino event, those in Central Europe are unlikely to have any such connection. But, they are all part of the same complex and highly variable climate system--a system which is undoubtedly changing--that governs the environment. This system is currently feeling the effects of the warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific, and a tendency for climate patterns consistent with those associated with previous El Nino events can be expected.

Serious droughts are occurring in the Southern African Development Coordination (SADC) countries of southern and central Africa, resulting in starvation and a global outcry for food aid. While there has been relief in some areas, it remains unseasonably dry in others. It is unlikely that the El Nino event is playing a significant role in determining current patterns of drought and rainfall across southern Africa. But records of past El Nino events would suggest an increased probability of drier conditions across parts of southern Africa should El Nino persist into 2003, and especially if it were to intensify. Despite the intensity of the 1997-1998 El Nino, dry conditions over the region were generally averted by more favourable climate patterns prevailing at the time over the adjacent Indian Ocean.

As warm conditions have been present since late May 2002, it is probable that some atypical climate patterns observed since then have at least been related in part to these changes. These would include the unusual nature of the summer monsoon season across the Indian subcontinent, notably the rainfall deficiencies in the central and southern parts, contrasting with excessive rainfall in the northeast and the dry conditions over Indonesia and across large tracts of the Australian continent. There is now concern that the dry conditions that developed over large areas of central and eastern Australia in the past several months may be worsened by the persistence of El Nino. The situation in the tropical Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored, and more detailed interpretations for regional climate fluctuations are likely to be generated by the climate forecasting community over the coming months.

RELATED ARTICLE: Needed: Improved Forecasting and Preparedness

Thousands of human casualties and tens of billions of dollars in economic damage will continue to befall developing countries every two to seven years until an investment is made to improve forecasting and preparedness against El Nino according to a new study developed by teams of researchers working in 16 countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Four United Nations organizations--the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations University, WMO and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction--collaborated in the preparation of the study, together with the United States-based National Center for Atmospheric Research.

More reliable El Nino forecasts and the ability of Governments to react quickly to them are critical. In the absence of such capabilities, vulnerable people, infrastructure and economies in many parts of the world will continue to suffer periodically from El Nino events, through floods, fires, drought, cyclones and outbreaks of infectious disease.

Few forecasters came close to forecasting El Nino's onset in mid-1997 and none was able to grasp the magnitude of the "El Nino of the Century" until it was well under way. National and regional forecasters typically provided predictions of El Nino impacts that in many cases were too general to be used with confidence by national and local decision-makers. Losses from the 1997-1998 El Nino included thousands of deaths and injuries from severe storms, heatwaves, fires, floods, frosts and drought. Estimates of El Nino-related damage ranged from $32 billion to $96 billion.

Source: Global Environmental Outlook 3, UNEP