Egypt & Saudi Lead Arab Strategy.

Discussion of matters pertaining to collective Arab strategy and regional politics is now led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Until early 2005, Arab affairs used to be led by a triumvirate which included Syria. With the Assad regime trying hard to survive, the Saudi and Egyptian leaderships are left alone in dealing with such matters.

Thus Saudi King Abdullah on May 31 held two rounds of talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Sharm el-Shaikh. The talks focused on major regional and global issues, most importantly the developments in the Palestinian territories and the situation in Iraq. The talks at the International Conference Centre in the Egyptian resort were attended by top officials from both sides including Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, intelligence chief Prince Muqrin, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abul Gheit and Egyptian Information Minister Anas al-Feqi.

Abdullah and Mubarak focused on a new international initiative to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in co-ordination with Washington. Arab News on June 1 reported a "Saudi paper" as saying: "A new international action will be launched in the region to break the stalemate in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations". Arab News quoted "informed sources" as saying the new initiative would be coupled with an Arab effort to settle the dispute between Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and the Hamas government. Arab News added: "A 'troika' of Sudan and Saudi Arabia, as present and future Arab summit chairs, as well as Arab League chief Amr Moussa, will mediate between the two sides to enable the PA to negotiate with Israel".

Hamas and Fatah on June 5 squared up for a potentially violent confrontation as the PA's Fatah President Abbas prepared to put his peace strategy to a referendum which the ruling Islamists branded illegal. Abbas has extended to June 11 his ultimatum for Hamas to back proposals for a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel or face the judgment of the electorate in a national poll. Several people have died in clashes between the two movements in the Gaza Strip.

Abbas gave Hamas and other factions until June 11 to endorse a document drawn up by Palestinian prisoners in an Israeli jail, which implicitly recognised Israel and supported the establishment of a state in territory occupied in 1967. The power struggle intensified after Hamas PM Haniya declared that a referendum on the document would be illegal.

The Financial Times on June 6 quoted senior Hamas official in Gaza Khalil Abu Leila as saying: "Abbas is trying to use the referendum to reverse the results of the [Jan. 25] elections. From the beginning, he tried to limit the powers of the [Hamas] government, eventually to make it collapse". Abu Leila said more time should be given to study the prisoners' document, adding: "This is not the holy Qur'an".

Abbas has angered Hamas leaders, based mainly in Gaza, by refusing to travel to the latter territory to discuss the issue. He declined as long as Hamas kept a new 3,000-strong paramilitary force on the streets of Gaza, ostensibly to ensure law and order. Fatah has responded by forming armed militias in several West Bank towns and threatening to deploy a similar force in Gaza, adding to the volatile situation there. Each side claims its rival's forces are illegal.

Abbas issued his referendum ultimatum to try to establish a framework for renewed negotiations with Israel before the Israeli government of Ehud Olmert embarks on any unilateral redrawing of West Bank borders. Hamas, however, is not alone in challenging his motives. The FT quoted Nasser Izzat, a Gaza leader of the leftwing Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), as saying: "There's a hidden agenda. I think the referendum idea was a bomb thrown in the faces of all the factions to create problems for a national dialogue".

Raji Sourani, head of the Palestine Centre for Human Rights, said: "I don't think it's wise to corner Hamas in this way. We need a conclusion to the national dialogue but there are people who want to bring chaos here. You make dialogue for understanding, not to create a vertical split". Hamas appeared determined to avert a national vote which it would probably lose, according to polls indicating that most Palestinians support talks with Israel.

On May 25, Abbas said he was prepared to hold a referendum within two months if the Palestinian factions could not end their divisions and rally around a political programme. The prisoners' plan is in line with positions held by Fatah, and opinion polls indicate that a majority of Palestinians support it. Marwan Barghouti, a hugely popular Fatah leader, was the driving force behind the plan, though prisoners from other groups, including Hamas, also signed it. (Barghouti was convicted in Israel in 2004 of orchestrating the killings of five people and is serving five life sentences. He and other prisoners are seen as heroes by many Palestinians, and their opinions carry substantial weight).

The plan contains a number of provisions which Israel adamantly opposes. It says that Palestinian refugees from the 1948-1949 Arab-Israeli war be allowed to return to their homes in what is now Israel. It calls for Palestinian "resistance" in areas occupied by Israel, which effectively means the West Bank.

Israeli Defence Minister and Labour Party leader Amir Peretz has said: "Any move that occurs in the Palestinian Authority will be evaluated carefully, but this is an internal Palestinian process and it is preferable for Israel not to interfere".