Edging up. (Nonferrous).

Anticipation is running high among scrap recyclers regarding the future of nonferrous markets.

Many signs are pointing to a return to better pricing for several nonferrous metals, including what many traders hope is a positive resolution to the war in Iraq. At press time, one week into the war, Iraqi resistance was still stubborn in some parts of the country. But the war's initial onset brought out more buyers than sellers in the equities markets, which can often mean good things to follow for base metals markets.

Many of the positive signs, however, are hinged upon the oversupply situation for many metals clearing up. Whether reinvigorated demand (particularly in western Europe and North America) will make itself apparent is another question.

A Pennsylvania recycler reports that not only is domestic scrap demand affected, but the generation of scrap remains off as well. He says both industrial demand and contractor scrap is down in his region.

While some of the contractor scrap might have been down because of winter weather, there is also a feeling that fewer construction, demolition and remodeling jobs are taking place.

Unemployment figures in the U.S. are by no means skyrocketing, but economists are still concerned that many people laid off over the past several months are not finding new employment.

The concern is that ultimately, households with one less earner will be very unlikely to purchase new cars, homes or appliances.

The other U.S. economic bugaboo--burdensome consumer debt--is likely to overhang the economy for awhile. Much like the unemployment situation, this is considered another reason why U.S. households will spend less on autos, appliances, new homes, remodeling jobs and other big-ticket items that keep nonferrous scrap flowing.

Average U.S. Refiners Buying
Prices for No. 2 Copper Scrap

(per pound, monthly average)

Feb 02            57.34 cents
Mar               59.64 cents
Apr               58.80 cents
May               60.39 cents
June              63.95 cents
July              60.59 cents
Aug               55.48 cents
Sept              55.68 cents
Oct               56.70 cents
Nov               60.50 cents
Dec               61.33 cents
Jan 03            62.38 cents
Feb               64.11 cents

Source: American Metal Market

Note: Table made from bar graph.