Econowatch mixed signals raise spectre of a double-dip recession.

Econowatch mixed signals raise spectre of a double-dip recession

Econowatch registered mixed signals last week, continuing to reflect a stalled local economy that seems to be neither growing nor shrinking.

A negative note was sounded by Pacific Bell's index of small-business phone subscribers, which fell to 102.9 in April, off 0.5 percent from March, although still up 5.3 percent from April a year ago.

Pacific Bell keeps track of the number of businesses in Los Angeles County with six or less lines -- a pretty good definition of a small, or start-up, businesses. April's dip was the first decline in the series since last March, when it also edged down a bit.

In better news, total building permits or the county rose in May to $6.14 billion, up 20.8 percent from April, but off 30.2 percent from May a year ago. This indicator has apparently picked itself off a floor of about $4.20 billion a month, reached in early 1991, but is a long way from the hey-days in 1989 and 1990, when as much as $10.7 billion worth of building permits would be issued in a good month.

Natural gas consumption by commercial users in the Southland fell in June, off 8.2 percent from May, and off 22.4 percent from June a year ago.

The gas consumption figures, however, tend to vacillate from month to month, and should not be read to literally as a reflection of business activity, according to a Southern California Gas Co. spokesman.

Last week local economist Michael Bazdarich, of La Canada-based MB Economics, warned that a "double-dip" recession may befall the nation and the Southland, due in part to sluggish retail sales. "The sharp decline in June retail sales was a major piece of news. It tends to confirm suspicions that the economy's current bounce is likely to be short-lived," said Bazdarich, in a report issued July 15.

Econowatch, a weekly compilation of Southland economic and business statistics, is published by the Business Journal to keep tabs on local economic trends.