Economy, Gas Prices Cloud Summer Tourism Prospects.

THE beaches still glisten, the glamour of Hollywood remains, yet L.A.'s tourism officials are wondering whether this will be the summer of their discontent.

Faced with rising gas prices and a softening economy around the world, the traditional summer vacation season is coming on as an even greater question mark.

"This is one of those times when a crystal ball would come in handy," said Mike Collins, executive vice president of the Los Angeles Convention & Visitors Bureau. "Everybody has a slightly different take on this."

Tourism officials take heart in people like Shawn and Shelli Jones, visitors from Nebraska who were strolling down Hollywood Boulevard one recent afternoon. This was Shawn's first visit to L.A. and Shell's first in many years. Gas prices may be higher, but they were determined to visit the area.

"We just wanted to take our yearly vacation," said Shelli, noting that gas prices are just as high in their hometown of Omaha. "You do what you've got to do (to go on vacation)."

Shawn and Shelli are like many Americans across the country who know full well that their vacation will cost them a bit more this year, but they plan to take it anyway.

And while several recent studies show that tourists won't be altering their family vacations this summer, tourism officials are still fretting about the volume of summer business.

The question becomes, whom do you believe?

A travel poll published recently by the Travel Industry Association noted that 21 percent of U.S. travelers are planning to cut back their vacation plans or not travel at all this summer.

And according to a recent American Express Retail Index, 59 percent of leisure travelers said they will travel as much as last year. Another 23 percent said they will travel more and 18 percent expect to travel less than last year.

"Our interpretation of the data and of where and why people travel indicate that they visit family and friends," said Joanne Fisher, an American Express spokeswoman. "It may be that people are not prepared to cut that travel. But while many indicated they were going to be traveling as much as last year. it doesn't mean they are going to be purchasing luxury vacations or a cruise around the world."

And that is where L.A. tourism officials are worried. Although they saw L.A.'s tourism business mushroom into a $13 billion industry last year, they expect that to remain flat or inch up only a percentage point or two.

"Last year we saw more visitors to L.A. than we've ever had -- 25 million tourists -- which was a 3.5 percent increase," said Collins of the Convention & Visitors Bureau. "Each year it has been marching upward. But this year we don't know. The much-reported economic slump has affected discretionary income and the economy. We've already seen that with the decline in the business traveler to Los Angeles. Hotel properties that cater to that business traveler have seen a softening during March, April and May. It is very conceivable that softening will extend into the summer."

Starline Tours, which has been shuttling visitors around Southern California for more than 35 years, is already seeing a softening in the tourist business. Business is down 10 to 15 percent, said Noonoosh Sapir, the tour agency's office manager for 20 years.

Last year, Starline had 100,000 visitors climb aboard its 45 tour buses, Sapir said. This year the company is predicting that only 80,000 to 85,000 tourists will opt to take one of the company's many sightseeing trips.

The tour agency has seen group travel from Europe and Asia down at least 33 percent from last year's levels. Early bookings requesting three tour buses have been reduced at the last minute to two or one bus, as overseas tour agencies fax in cancellations.

"The reason the numbers are down is that finances are down," Sapir said. "We can't raise prices on our tourist. That is not going to help."

So the tour company is putting together more tour packages that are reasonably priced. Starline has created a new $59 City Tour that goes to the city's No. 1 attraction, University Studios Hollywood, a tour of the movie stars' homes and seven museums.

It is also developing a brand new $39 tour called "The Haunted Houses of Hollywood," being developed in conjunction with the International Association of Paranormal Research.

About one-fifth of L.A.'s visitors are international visitors who have been hard hit by a strong dollar that makes U.S. vacations more expensive for them. The No. 1 source of international travelers here is Japan, but the number of Japanese tourists to L.A. has been falling off due to a combination of a soft economy and weak yen.

In 1997, some 848,000 Japanese tourists visited L.A. By 2000, that number was down to 673,000.

Meanwhile, the number of South Korean tourists has been inching upward because of a stronger economy there and the large South Korean community in Southern California. In 1998, nearly 100,000 South Koreans paid a visit to L.A. By 2000, that more than doubled to 246,000 visitors.

While international travel is influenced by a strong U.S. dollar, domestic tourism is heavily influenced by gasoline prices. Most of L.A.'s tourists come from the western half of the country. San Diego and San Francisco provide Los Angeles with at least one-quarter of its domestic tourists. That is followed by Sacramento, Phoenix and Fresno.

Fortunately, those places are not that far from L.A., meaning that gas prices will only add a small percentage increase to most people's trips.

But tourism officials still are worried that more people may stay home this summer or reduce the number of days they spend on vacation.

"We're getting mixed signals about how many tourists are planning to show up," said David Sheatsley, director of research for the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau. "I wouldn't be surprised to find that either people will stay closer to home or even stay at home."

Rising gas prices, however, didn't keep away the students of Rim Rock High School in Grand View, Idaho. The 28 graduating seniors had to pay a little more than anticipated for their charter bus, but they made it to Los Angeles anyway.

"For them, this is a big trip," said high school principal Bob Delle. "We've been doing this for 20 years."

While gas prices made the trip more expensive, the group cut costs by doing just what L.A. tourism officials fear many people will do. They booked rooms at a reasonably priced motel in Anaheim, avoiding the generally higher-priced inns of Los Angeles.

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