Economists see 14-month US recession: surveyThe US economy probably went into recession in April in a downturn likely to last 14 months, according to according to
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.
2. In keeping with: according to instructions.
3. a survey of forecasts released Monday by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
The 51 economists on average predicted an annualized annualized
Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared. drop in US economic output of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter and a 1.1 percent decline in the first quarter of 2009, the Philly Fed said.
More than half of the panelists say their outlook is based on the assumption that Congress will pass a new stimulus package, with a size estimated at 211 billion dollars.
According to the forecasters, the stimulus package will begin to affect real growth in the first quarter of 2009. They saw modest growth of 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent returning in the second and third quarters, respectively, improving to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter.
But they predicted unemployment will continue to rise to 7.7 percent of the workforce by the fourth quarter of 2009.
The results were similar to a survey released earlier Monday by the National Association of Business Economists, which predicted a 2.6 percent contraction in fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. ) and a 1.3 percent decline in the first quarter of 2009.
The NABE NABE National Association for Bilingual Education
NABE National Association for Business Economics
NABE National Association of Business Economists
NABE North Atlantic Bloom Experiment
NABE North American Bookdealers Exchange (Cottage Grove, OR) panel also expected a modest 2009 rebound with growth averaging 0.7 percent next year.
"Just over 60 percent of the NABE respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy. expect that the depth of the recession should be relatively contained, with a peak-to-trough decline in real GDP Real GDP
This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". of less than 1.5 percent, with the balance expecting a harsher contraction," the organization said.