Economists fear warming's effects.

Byline: Sherri Buri McDonald The Register-Guard

Global warming isn't just an environmental issue, it's an economic issue, with potentially dire consequences for Oregon's economy, according to a letter from nearly 50 economists to the state's government and civic leaders.

The economists, who are affiliated with colleges and universities all over the country, including many in Oregon, on Tuesday released the letter and a 21-page report assessing the economic impacts of climate change in Oregon.

The report said the effects of global warming - higher temperatures, rising sea levels, loss of mountain snowpack and a change in precipitation patterns - will affect a wide range of Oregon businesses and industries, including forestry and agriculture, ski resorts and hydroelectric power generation.

"Climate change is an economic bottom-line issue that is already affecting the income and livelihood of businesses and individuals, and will increasingly affect them," said Bob Doppelt, director of Resource Innovations, a research group with ties to the University of Oregon Institute for a Sustainable Environment. Resource Innovations organized a meeting of economists, scientists, policy makers and business representatives to discuss global warming in May, which led to the report and letter.

The economists felt that it wasn't their role to make policy recommendations, Doppelt said. But they did urge policy makers to act quickly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; to factor in rising temperatures and sea levels in planning discussions for such issues as water, and energy infrastructure; and to invest in economic development opportunities related to technologies that boost energy efficiency or reduce greenhouse emissions.

"The economists are saying we have a window of opportunity now to do something," Doppelt said. "Let's not lose that window of opportunity because down the road, it may be too late."

Calling the report "the first of its kind in the nation," Doppelt said the economists in Oregon were able to address the economic impacts of global warming because Oregon State University last year released a scientific statement on climate change on the Pacific Northwest.

"The scientific community acted here first, which provided the platform for economists to look at this issue," Doppelt said.

That scientific statement established the following:

Average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest increased in the 20th century by 1.3 degrees, slightly higher than the global temperature rise. Scientists expect the warming trend to continue, with increases of 2.7 degrees by the 2020s and possibly by 5.4 degrees by the 2050s.

The average water content of the Northwest snowpack declined by 30 percent between 1950 and the 1990s. Some project that it will further shrink in half by 2040.

Sea levels rose four to eight inches in the 20th Century; a similar or larger rise is expected in this century.

Those climatic changes threaten major Oregon industries, according to the economists' report.

Agriculture: Drought and lower stream flows will push demand for irrigation past capacity in some river basins, and higher temperatures could displace temperature-sensitive crops, such as Pinot Noir grapes. Agriculture contributes $11.5 billion a year to Oregon's economy.

Forest products: Decreased snowpack and increased drought could lead to more insect infestations and greater fire risk, especially in Eastern Oregon. Forest products contribute $10 billion a year to the state's economy.

Tourism: Smaller snowpack threatens Oregon's $200 million snow sports industry, and higher waves and increased coastal erosion jeopardizes the state's multibillion-dollar beach economy.

Hydroelectricity: Dams in the Columbia River basin generate more than $7 billion in wholesale power each year, including power that is exported out of state. Lower stream flows could reduce power exports by at least $230 million by 2030, according to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

The next step for the economists, most of whom specialize in environmental or natural resources economics, is to share information from the report with business associations, civic groups and local officials, Doppelt said.

"We can solve this problem," he said.

"We have the technology; we have the know-how, and it really won't cost that much. It's really a matter of making the commitment to do it."

Copies of the report and letter are available at ri.uoregon.edu/programs/GWS/climate_change_ oregon.html.