Economically speaking, the sky is falling: three economists agree the U.S. economy needs some tough love.

Unsustainable. Frightening. Unconscionable.

That's the long-term fiscal outlook of the United States in a nutshell, according to the panel of experts that spoke at this year's convention in Pittsburgh.

The panelists--Stuart Butler, vice president of The Heritage Foundation; Isabel Sawhill, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; and David Walker, U.S. Comptroller general from the General Accountability Office--have been traveling around the country on a mission to build grassroots support for a return to fiscal responsibility in Washington.

They came from differing points on the ideological spectrum, but generally agreed on America's bleak economic outlook and what needs to be done to fix it.

As Butler put it, Americans need to understand that the sky is falling.

Growth of entitlement programs--Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare--is predicted to increase steadily in the next few decades until it eventually consumes all federal revenue sometime around 2030.

That would leave nothing for such "discretionary" items as national defense and every other function of the federal government. Unless, of course, America borrows the money. Congress has relied heavily upon the borrowing option in recent years. Foreign holdings of Treasury Securities have increased from thirty percent in 200l to 43.6 percent in 2006.

But, according to the panel, deficit financing, while politically expedient in the short term, would be disastrous for our economy in the long run.

If Congress were to continue down the current path, the deficit would consume an ever-larger portion of our GDP, resulting in a dramatic increase in interest costs and an accompanying economic crisis.

Clearly, the current path is not an option.

That leaves just two alternatives: Raise taxes or slash entitlements. Neither is, in and of itself, desirable.

In order to cover all expenditures, Congress would have to raise federal taxes from today's eighteen percent to somewhere around thirty percent. Factor in around ten percent in state and local taxes and that would put America at a level of taxation in line with much of Europe.

Butler, speaking for conservatives, worried that raising taxes to European levels would result in a European economy--slower growth and dramatically higher unemployment than is the norm in the U.S. today.

On the other hand, slashing entitlement programs would place the burden of fiscal responsibility squarely on the shoulders of the poor and the elderly.

All three panelists agreed that finding a solution to America's looming fiscal crisis is going to require tough choices.

Among their recommendations:

* Fundamental reform of entitlement programs

* Caps on discretionary spending

* Bring back pay-as-you-go, or PAYGO, rules

* Line-item decision authority for the president that could be overridden by a mere majority of Congress, which would be different from the unconstitutional line item veto.

* Reporting on key national indicators that show where we are, where we're trending and how we compare to other countries

Jeremy Dowell is editorial page editor of the West Valley community editions of The Arizona Republic. E-mail jeremy.dowell@ arizonarepublic.com