Economic outlook is positive."The time has come, the walrus said, to speak of many things, of shoes, of ships, of sealing wax, of cabbages and kings." --Alice Through the Looking Glass Looking Glass - A desktop manager for Unix from Visix. Lewis Carroll Car·roll , James 1854-1907. British-born American physician noted for his research on yellow fever. In 1900 he deliberately infected himself with the disease for experimental purposes. Lewis Carroll's walrus was not introducing discussion of the economy, but his words give an excellent opening to describing the breadth of the U.S. economy and the fore fore front, e.g. forelimb. fore cannon the third metacarpal bone of the horse. cast. The U.S. economy is not only broad-based broad-based Of or relating to an index or average that provides a good representation of the overall market. The S&P 500 and NYSE Composite are generally regarded as broad-based stock indexes, while the popular Dow Jones Industrial Average is biased , it is also constantly evolving. The current economic cycle may appear to be similar to that of the early 1990s, but there are significant differences that will be noted in the analysis of performance of the economy and its outlook. Economic growth is improving in the second half of this year and should improve further in 2004. Real GDP Real GDP This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". is expected to rise 3.9 percent in 2004 after increasing 2.5 percent this year. Growth in the economy is forecasted to be 3.6 percent in 2005. Optimism is tempered by the burden of uncertainly" that has been present in the economy for the past three years. Rental Housing Market The enormous loss of jobs during the past three years in the U.S. economy is having an affect on the rental housing market. Rental apartment vacancy VACANCY. A place which is empty. The term is principally applied to cases where an office is not filled. 2. By the constitution of the United States, the president has the power to fill up vacancies that may happen during the recess of the senate. rates in the U.S. Department of Commerce data series rose to 11.3 percent in second quarter 2003. This was the highest rate since third quarter 1988. Net effective rent increases have moderated to less than 3 percent at annual rates in recent months. Street rents in a large number of local markets have declined or are flat. New apartment construction has remained relatively stable. Apartment unit starts will be down about 3 percent this year. This will put the total at 299,000 units, and will match the average for the period since 1998. Absorption rates of new rental apartment this year will decline for the third consecutive year. The declines, however, are modest. This is similar to previous apartment downturns with the existing rental apartment stock bearing more of the brunt brunt n. 1. The main impact or force, as of an attack. 2. The main burden: bore the brunt of the household chores. of the downturn Downturn The transition point between a rising, expanding economy to a falling, contracting one. downturn A decline in security prices or economic activity following a period of rising or stable prices or activity. than new rental units. All in all, the current softness in the rental apartment market is relatively modest in many local markets. A marked upturn in the strength of the rental apartment market will be tied to significant strengthening in the labor markets labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience . Job growth will improve moderately in 2004 and some limited strengthening will occur in the rental apartment market. Underlying Fundamentals An important question regarding the economic outlook is the sustainability of the expansion at a pace above the economy's long-term Long-term Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year. long-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. growth potential (3 percent). There is reason to be optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op . The Federal Reserve has committed to maintaining low short-term interest rates Short-term interest rates Interest rates on loan contracts-or debt instruments such as Treasury bills, bank certificates of deposit or commerical paper-having maturities of less than one year. Often called money market rates. for an extended period. An enormous and rising federal budget deficit adds to disposable income disposable income Portion of an individual's income over which the recipient has complete discretion. To assess disposable income, it is necessary to determine total income, including not only wages and salaries, interest and dividend payments, and business profits, but also in the private sector of the economy. Moreover, economic expansions, when they are maturing, develop a dynamic. Increased job opportunities strengthen consumer confidence, encouraging consumers to spend more. Business, experiencing increasing sales and profits, invest more aggressively in both inventories and fixed capital. Rising corporate profits are bullish Bullish Word used to describe an investor's attitude. Bullish refers to an optimistic outlook, while bearish means a pessimistic outlook. bullish for the stock market, and higher stock prices boost both business and consumer spending Consumer demand or consumption is also known as personal consumption expenditure. It is the largest part of aggregate demand or effective demand at the macroeconomic level. . The expansion feeds on itself, creating a self-sustaining self-sus·tain·ing adj. Able to sustain oneself or itself independently. self  -sus·tain momentum. There is the potential that economic activity around the world
will increase and support worldwide economic growth.
Concurrently, there are forces driving the economy that will fade. Increases in mortgage interest rates will affect home building and existing home sales Existing Home Sales An economic indicator of both the number and prices of existing single family houses, condos and co-op sales over a one-month period. Released monthly by the U.S. activity at some point in coming months. Also, the rise in mortgage rates is causing a marked drop in mortgage refinancing Refinancing An extension and/or increase in amount of existing debt. activity. Equity obtained from mortgage refinancing and sales of existing homes have been an important source of cash for home improvement expenditures and other consumer outlays Outlays Payments on obligations in the form of cash, checks, the issuance of bonds or notes, or the maturing of interest coupons. . And those sources will diminish. Effects of tax cuts on consumer buying, which will be a big positive for the next few quarters, will begin to ease thereafter. Defense spending will continue to rise throughout all of next year, but probably at a more subdued sub·due tr.v. sub·dued, sub·du·ing, sub·dues 1. To conquer and subjugate; vanquish. See Synonyms at defeat. 2. To quiet or bring under control by physical force or persuasion; make tractable. 3. pace. Labor market performance in the current cycle is different from the recovery that followed the end of the recession of the early 1990s, which ended in March 1991. Employers have reduced employment by 2.349 million jobs over the 21-month period following the end of the last recession in November November: see month. 2001. Employment rose by 2.818 million jobs over a comparable period after the end of the previous recession in March 1991. And, jobs increased after the end of all other recessions since World War II. It should be noted that the initial data for the post March 1991 period showed growth at 867,000 jobs. The early economic upturn after March 1991 was called the "jobless recovery A jobless recovery or jobless growth is a phrase used by economists to describe the recovery from a recession which does not produce strong growth in employment. The phrase originated in the early 1990s in the United States, to describe the economic recovery at the end of " because job growth was considered relatively small. The current upturn fits better with a "jobless recovery." To distinguish the two periods, perhaps the current labor market performance situation should be termed the "less jobs recovery." Labor markets should strengthen over the forecast period. This is based on the recent strength in capital goods Capital Goods Any goods used by an organization to produce other goods. Notes: Examples of capital goods include office buildings, equipment, and machinery. See also: Capital Expenditure, Disinvestment Capital goods orders and shipments. Orders rose at a 10 percent annual rate over the three-month period ending in August and shipments were increasing at more them a 14 percent annual rate. Inflation remains under control. Consumer price inflation (CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch. (2) (Counts Per I ) should be less than 2.5 percent this year (measured on a December December: see month. to December basis). This is the second year in a row that the CPI has risen less than 2.5 percent. The GDP deflator GDP deflator A price index used to adjust gross domestic product for changes in prices of goods and services included in the GDP. The GDP deflator is a more broadly based and, many economists argue, a better measure of inflation than the consumer price index , a broader measure of inflation, will be up only 1.4 percent this year vs. 1.1 percent last year. CPI should increase to 2.5 percent in 2004 and to 3.2 percent in 2005. Increases in the GDP Deflator are expected to be 2.4 percent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, during the next two years. Major factors in the slightly higher inflation over the next two years will be the weaker dollar and the twin deficits--foreign trade and the federal budget. The dollar has weakened weak·en tr. & intr.v. weak·ened, weak·en·ing, weak·ens To make or become weak or weaker. weak  en·er n. markedly against most developed countries. This
should help ease the rate of growth in the trade deficit, but import
prices will rise faster. Also, the weaker dollar could limit foreign
investment in U.S. debt and pressure capital markets.
Monetary policy has been mostly expansive this year. The Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Board (FOMC See Federal Open Market Committee. FOMC See Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). ) has lowered interest rates only once this year, but rates are already near zero in inflation-adjusted terms. Our expectation is that short term interest rates will be left at current levels until price indexes, such as the core component of the chain price index for personal consumption expenditures (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) begin to turn up. That will not happen before the second half of next year. In recent months, this measure of inflation has stabilized sta·bi·lize v. sta·bi·lized, sta·bi·liz·ing, sta·bi·liz·es v.tr. 1. To make stable or steadfast. 2. , but over the next several quarters the trend of inflation is more likely to be down than up. Slack 1. (operating system) slack - Internal fragmentation. Space allocated to a disk file but not actually used to store useful information. 2. (jargon) slack in labor markets, excess capacity in manufacturing, strong productivity gains and intense global competition should all contribute to further disinflation Disinflation A slowing of the rate at which prices increase. Typically, this occurs during a recession as sales drop and retailers are not able to pass on higher prices to customers. Notes: Disinflation is not to be confused with deflation, where prices actually drop. . Long-term interest rates will rise slightly as the economy strengthens. Personal Consumption Consumers have been the most consistent positive force in the economy during the past three years. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. . This year it will represent more than 70 percent of GDP. Growth in consumption spending has averaged 2.8 percent annually vs. 1.7 percent for the economy. Growth in consumer spending, nevertheless, has been modest in historical terms and this limits growth in the overall economy. Consumers had been somewhat guarded since the middle of last year as a result of the incessant news of losses in jobs, however, consumers are becoming more positive about the economy in spite of in opposition to all efforts of; in defiance or contempt of; notwithstanding. See also: Spite further job losses. The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence had retreated during the year period ending in March 2003 and it stood at a level well below that experienced after the September 11 attacks September 11 attacks Series of airline hijackings and suicide bombings against U.S. targets perpetrated by 19 militants associated with the Islamic extremist group al-Qaeda. . Improvement in consumer confidence since the spring still has left the Index under the post-September 11 low. Positively, the improving future expectations are enough to indicate that buying plans may improve through the end of the year and into next year. The outlook for consumer spending calls for a 3.5 percent rise next year, up from the 2.8 percent estimated for this year. Recent federal tax cuts will act as a spur to consumer spending over the next few quarters. Households tend to save tax cuts and especially rebates in the short run and consume them later. Still it remains highly unlikely that consumption spending will jump significantly from forecasted levels. Consumers have little pent-up pent-up adj. Not given expression; repressed: pent-up emotions. pent-up Adjective not released; repressed: demand. They did little deferral deferral - Waiting for quiet on the Ethernet. of spending during the 2001 recession and ensuing en·sue intr.v. en·sued, en·su·ing, en·sues 1. To follow as a consequence or result. See Synonyms at follow. 2. To take place subsequently. weak labor market. Investment Gross private domestic investment contains sectors with mixed performance in recent years. Non residential fixed investment declined sharply in 2001 and 2002 and will rise only slightly this year. Residential investment (new construction and improvements) only flattened flat·ten v. flat·tened, flat·ten·ing, flat·tens v.tr. 1. To make flat or flatter. 2. To knock down; lay low: The boxer was flattened with one punch. out in the 2000-2001 national economic recession unlike the sharp drops experienced in past recessions. Residential investment then increased as stimulative monetary policy permitted mortgage interest rates to fall to 40 year lows during the past two years and housing construction and improvements thrived. The principal source of the 2000 2001 recession and weak recovery in 2002 was the collapse in business investment, which started with the tech sector's plunge The term Plunge has multiple meanings:
adj. Being between 10 and 99 percent: double-digit inflation. gains to double digit Noun 1. double digit - a two-digit integer; from 10 to 99 integer, whole number - any of the natural numbers (positive or negative) or zero; "an integer is a number that is not a fraction" drops, starting in the second half of 2000. Overall businesses investment in equipment and software in turn fell 6.4 percent in 2001 and 1.7 percent in 2002. Some turnaround Turnaround A situation where a company that has had poor performance for an extended period of time experiences a positive reversal. Notes: A speculator may profit from a turnaround if he or she accurately anticipates the improvement of a poorly performing company. in equipment and software spending by businesses occurred this year and should pick up strength in 2004. Low mortgage interest rates permitted new housing construction to be one of the strongest sectors of the economy in this decade. Recent increases m mortgage interest rates and a weak labor market, however, could lead to modest declines in housing starts until the middle of next year. Residential remodeling remodeling /re·mod·el·ing/ (re-mod´el-ing) reorganization or renovation of an old structure. bone remodeling improvement expenditures, a part of residential investment category, have also been strong in this decade. More moderate increases in home values and higher interest rates should lead to a modest easing in demand for "big ticket" remodeling and projects over the next several quarters. Disinvestment Disinvestment 1. The action of an organization or government selling or liquidating an asset or subsidiary. Also known as "divestiture". 2. A reduction in capital expenditure, or the decision of a company not to replenish depleted capital goods. Notes: 1. in business inventories (a part of domestic investment) fell sharply in 2001 during the recession, inventories were up slightly the past two years. Stronger economic growth during the next two years should encourage more businesses to accumulate Accumulate Broker/analyst recommendation that could mean slightly different things depending on the broker/analyst. In general, it means to increase the number of shares of a particular security over the near term, but not to liquidate other parts of the portfolio to buy a security inventories again. Government Contribution to the Economy The terror attacks terror attack n → atentado (terrorista) terror attack n → attentato terroristico brought restraint in federal spending to an end. Federal spending rose by 7.5 percent in calendar year 2002 and this year it will be up by about 10.5 percent. Increases in defense spending account for much of the rise in federal spending--up 9.3 percent and 14.6 percent during the past two year's. Domestic spending increased 4.4 percent and 2.6 percent during the same period. Defense spending increases accounted for one-fifth of total GDP growth during the past two years. More modest increases in federal spending will occur during the forecast period. State government spending Government spending or government expenditure consists of government purchases, which can be financed by seigniorage, taxes, or government borrowing. It is considered to be one of the major components of gross domestic product. will begin to revive To renew. For example, revival is the act of renewing the legal force of a contract or debt, either by acknowledging it or by giving a new promise, when the contract or debt is no longer a sufficient foundation for a lawsuit because it is barred by the running of the Statute dining the forecast period as economic growth enables states to rebuild their tax revenues. A definite concern for the economy, interest rates and inflation in the long run is the burgeoning federal budget deficit. The long budget surplus outlook had disappeared. Placing the sharp change in the federal budget outlook is the new estimates issued by the Congressional Budget Office The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is responsible for economic forecasting and fiscal policy analysis, scorekeeeping, cost projections, and an Annual Report on the Federal Budget. The office also underdakes special budget-related studies at the request of Congress. (CBO CBO See: Collateralized Bond Obligation. ) in late August. They estimated that the federal budget for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 was $401 billion--adding $155 billion more in red ink red ink Health administration A popular term for financial losses. Cf in the Black. than the agency projected last March. For 2004-2013, CBO now estimates that under current law the federal government will spend $1.4 trillion One thousand times one billion, which is 1, followed by 12 zeros, or 10 to the 12th power. See space/time. (mathematics) trillion - In Britain, France, and Germany, 10^18 or a million cubed. In the USA and Canada, 10^12. more than it collects in revenues, all of which will be added to the national debt. In comparison, six months ago CBO projected 10-year surpluses of almost $900 billion. It represents a marked reversal in prospects relative to CBO's projections in January January: see month. 2001 when $5.6 trillion in projected budget surpluses raised the prospect of essentially paying off the publicly-held debt. Since then, baseline The horizontal line to which the bottoms of lowercase characters (without descenders) are aligned. See typeface. baseline - released version projections for 2002-2011 have declined by almost $8 trillion. CBO attributes most of that change to enacted legislation (26 percent in tax cuts, 33 percent in spending increases) while less than 10 percent stems from changes in economic assumptions. [GRAPHIC OMITTED]
General Economic Forecast 1995-2005
1995 1996 1997
GDP in billions of current $'s 7400.5 7813.2 8318.4
% Change 4.9% 5.6% 6.5%
Real GDP in billion of chained 1996 $'s 7543.8 7813.2 8159.5
% Change 2.7% 3.6% 4.4%
Percentage Changes from Previous Year
Personal Consumption 3.0% 3.2% 3.6%
Durable Goods 4.6% 5.7% 6.6%
Nondurable Goods 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%
Services 2.7% 2.8% 3.3%
Gross Private Domestic Investment 3.0% 9.0% 12.1%
Non Residential Fixed 9.6% 9.3% 10.7%
Structures 4.8% 7.1% 9.1%
Equipment & Software 11.5% 11.0% 13.3%
Computers & Other
Information Processing Equipment 17.5% 18.3% 21.8%
% Change
291.7 313.3 319.7
Residential -3.6% 7.4% 2.0%
Changes in Business Inventories (1) 30.4 30.0 63.8
Net Export of Goods and Services (1) -78.4 -89.0 -113.3
Exports (1) 808.2 974.2 981.5
% Change 10.3% 20.5% 0.7%
Imports (1) 886.6 963.1 1094.8
% Change 8.2% 8.6% 13.7%
Government Purchases of
Goods and Services 0.4% 1.1% 2.4%
Federal -2.7% -0.9% -0.4%
National Defense -3.7% -1.4% -2.6%
Non-Defense -0.5% 0.0% 4.1%
State and Local 2.5% 2.4% 4.0%
Related Economic Variables
% Change in GDP Deflator 2.2% 1.9% 2.0%
% Change in CPI - Dec. to Dec. 2.5% 3.3% 1.7%
Corporate Profits (1) 668.8 754.0 833.8
% Change 16.7% 12.7% 10.6%
Per Capita Disposable Income
Current Dollars $20,381 $21,072 $21,887
% Change 3.7% 3.5% 3.9%
1996 Dollars $20,798 $21,072 $21,470
% Change 1.4% 1.3% 1.9%
Personal Savings Rate - % 5.6 4.8 4.2
Unemployment Rate - Dec. each year 5.6 5.4 4.8
Three Month "T" Bill Yield 5.49 5.01 5.06
One Year Treasury Bonds 5.94 5.52 5.63
Ten Year Treasury Bonds 6.57 6.44 6.35
Aaa Bond Rate 7.59 7.37 7.27
Conventional Mortgages - 30 years 7.95 7.80 7.60
Mortgages - 1 yr. Arm 6.06 5.67 5.61
1998 1999 2000
GDP in billions of current $'s 8781.5 9274.3 9824.6
% Change 5.6% 5.6% 5.9%
Real GDP in billion of chained 1996 $'s 8508.9 8859.0 9191.4
% Change 4.3% 4.1% 3.8%
Percentage Changes from Previous Year
Personal Consumption 4.8% 4.9% 4.3%
Durable Goods 10.6% 11.8% 8.2%
Nondurable Goods 4.1% 4.7% 3.9%
Services 4.0% 3.7% 3.8%
Gross Private Domestic Investment 11.8% 6.6% 6.2%
Non Residential Fixed 32.2% 8.1% 7.8%
Structures 6.8% -1.4% 6.5%
Equipment & Software 14.6% 11.5% 8.2%
Computers & Other
Information Processing Equipment 22.7% 18.4% 14.8%
% Change
345.1 368.3 372.4
Residential 7.9% 6.7% 1.1%
Changes in Business Inventories (1) 76.7 62.8 65.0
Net Export of Goods and Services (1) -221.1 -320.5 -398.8
Exports (1) 1002.4 1036.3 1137.2
% Change 2.1% 3.4% 9.7%
Imports (1) 1223.5 1356.8 1536.0
% Change 11.8% 10.9% 13.2%
Government Purchases of
Goods and Services 1.9% 3.9% 2.7%
Federal -0.8% 2.3% 1.2%
National Defense -1.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Non-Defense 1.1% 2.7% 3.6%
State and Local 3.5% 4.7% 3.5%
Related Economic Variables
% Change in GDP Deflator 1.2% 1.4% 2.1%
% Change in CPI - Dec. to Dec. 1.6% 2.7% 3.4%
Corporate Profits (1) 777.4 805.8 788.1
% Change -6.8% 3.7% -2.2%
Per Capita Disposable Income
Current Dollars $23,037 $23,749 $25,237
% Change 5.3% 3.1% 6.3%
1996 Dollars $22,359 $22,678 $23,501
% Change 4.1% 1.4% 3.6%
Personal Savings Rate - % 4.7 2.6 2.8
Unemployment Rate - Dec. each year 4.4 4.1 4.0
Three Month "T" Bill Yield 4.78 4.64 5.82
One Year Treasury Bonds 5.05 5.08 6.11
Ten Year Treasury Bonds 5.26 5.65 6.03
Aaa Bond Rate 6.53 7.05 7.62
Conventional Mortgages - 30 years 6.94 7.43 8.06
Mortgages - 1 yr. Arm 5.58 5.99 7.04
2001 2002 2003
GDP in billions of current $'s 10082.2 10446.2 10876.7
% Change 2.6% 3.6% 4.1%
Real GDP in billion of chained 1996 $'s 9214.5 9439.9 9675.8
% Change 0.3% 2.4% 2.5%
Percentage Changes from Previous Year
Personal Consumption 2.5% 3.1% 2.8%
Durable Goods 6.0% 7.3% 6.1%
Nondurable Goods 2.0% 3.2% 3.3%
Services 2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
Gross Private Domestic Investment -10.7% 1.0% 2.4%
Non Residential Fixed -5.2% -5.7% 0.9%
Structures -1.7% -16.4% -5.2%
Equipment & Software -6.4% -1.7% 3.2%
Computers & Other
Information Processing Equipment -6.0% 2.8% 12.1%
% Change
373.5 388.2 412.5
Residential 0.3% 3.9% 6.3%
Changes in Business Inventories (1) -61.4 5.2 3.2
Net Export of Goods and Services (1) -415.9 -488.5 -547.4
Exports (1) 1076.4 1058.8 1060.0
% Change -5.4% -1.6% 0.1%
Imports (1) 1492.0 1547.4 1607.4
% Change -2.9% 3.7% 3.9%
Government Purchases of
Goods and Services 3.7% 4.4% 3.6%
Federal 4.8% 7.5% 10.5%
National Defense 5.0% 9.3% 14.6%
Non-Defense 4.5% 4.4% 2.8%
State and Local 3.1% 2.8% -0.2%
Related Economic Variables
% Change in GDP Deflator 2.4% 1.1% 1.4%
% Change in CPI - Dec. to Dec. 1.6% 2.4% 2.3%
Corporate Profits (1) 731.6 787.4 853.1
% Change -7.2% 7.6% 8.3%
Per Capita Disposable Income
Current Dollars $25,957 $27,170 $28,230
% Change 2.9% 4.7% 3.9%
1996 Dollars $23,692 $24,463 $25,001
% Change 0.8% 3.3% 2.2%
Personal Savings Rate - % 2.3 3.7 3.5
Unemployment Rate - Dec. each year 5.8 6.0 6.0
Three Month "T" Bill Yield 3.40 1.61 2.45
One Year Treasury Bonds 3.49 2.00 2.65
Ten Year Treasury Bonds 5.02 4.61 5.85
Aaa Bond Rate 7.08 6.49 6.90
Conventional Mortgages - 30 years 6.97 6.54 7.05
Mortgages - 1 yr. Arm 5.82 4.62 3.74
2004 2005
GDP in billions of current $'s 11490.6 12080.7
% Change 5.6% 5.1%
Real GDP in billion of chained 1996 $'s 10052.4 10410.9
% Change 3.9% 3.6%
Percentage Changes from Previous Year
Personal Consumption 3.5% 3.1%
Durable Goods 4.9% 3.9%
Nondurable Goods 3.1% 2.5%
Services 3.4% 3.2%
Gross Private Domestic Investment 6.3% 6.8%
Non Residential Fixed 6.5% 7.9%
Structures 2.6% 4.8%
Equipment & Software 7.0% 8.2%
Computers & Other
Information Processing Equipment 10.2% 12.7%
% Change
408.0 419.8
Residential -1.1% 2.9%
Changes in Business Inventories (1) 28.6 32.6
Net Export of Goods and Services (1) -573.0 -593.9
Exports (1) 1095.6 1142.7
% Change 3.4% 4.3%
Imports (1) 1668.6 1736.6
% Change 3.8% 4.1%
Government Purchases of
Goods and Services 3.0% 2.2%
Federal 5.5% 1.1%
National Defense 7.0% 1.1%
Non-Defense 2.3% 1.2%
State and Local 1.5% 2.9%
Related Economic Variables
% Change in GDP Deflator 1.9% 2.3%
% Change in CPI - Dec. to Dec. 2.5% 3.2%
Corporate Profits (1) 942.6 1014.2
% Change 10.5% 7.6%
Per Capita Disposable Income
Current Dollars $29,359 $30,504
% Change 4.0% 3.9%
1996 Dollars $25,606 $26,170
% Change 2.4% 2.2%
Personal Savings Rate - % 3.9 3.8
Unemployment Rate - Dec. each year 5.7 5.5
Three Month "T" Bill Yield 2.85 3.05
One Year Treasury Bonds 3.05 3.15
Ten Year Treasury Bonds 6.05 6.22
Aaa Bond Rate 7.10 7.34
Conventional Mortgages - 30 years 7.35 7.55
Mortgages - 1 yr. Arm 3.95 4.15
(1.) Billions of 1996 dollars
(2.) Billions of current dollars
Source: US Departments of Commerce and Labor, Federal Reserve
Board, Freddie Mac, Forecasts by Regis J Sheehan & Associates.
NAA's 2003 Survey of Income & Expenses In Rental Apartment Communities is available on CD-ROM CD-ROM: see compact disc. CD-ROM in full compact disc read-only memory Type of computer storage medium that is read optically (e.g., by a laser). . For ordering details and to participate in the next survey call NAA NAA Nomina Anatomica Avium. at 703/518-6141, or visit www.naahq.org. Robert J. Sheehan is President of Regis J. Sheehan Management and Economic Consultants in McLean, Va., and serves as NAA's Consulting Economist. He can be reached at 703/893-9185. |
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