East Mediterranean Peace After Downfall Of Saddam & Others.

** Putin Will Do Well As Long As He Does Not Play Off The US And Europe Against One Another; The Rulers Of China Will Have To Do The Same

** The Arabs Should Learn Quickly That CP Abdullah's Peace Plan Must Stress 'Normalisation' And Not Let It Drop To 'Ordinary' Cold Peace With Israel; But The Israelis Should Also Learn To Choose Their Leaders Wisely

WASHINGTON - Arab unanimity against a US-led war on Iraq and the continuing deadlock in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, which US Vice President Dick Cheney clearly understood from his Middle East tour in March, have led the Bush administration to consider widening its options. This time it is to be peace for the entire East Mediterranean region and its oriental hinterland in a trade-off involving the downfall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and of those other regimes which do not fit into an order that President George W. Bush wants to establish. It is an order against an "axis of evil" recently widened to include Syria and other hardliners. The following are the likely implications for this part of the world:

1. An Aegean agreement between Greece and Turkey, based on a ruling by the International Court of Justice in The Hague, will coincide with or will be followed by a European Union Enlargement Treaty. The Treaty will admit into the EU 10 East European countries, plus Cyprus and Malta. The Treaty will be signed, most probably in Athens, within the next two years and the accession talks for Cyprus should be completed by end-2003. Ankara's implicit blessings for this will have compelled Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to reach a final agreement on Cyprus with President Glafkos Clerides. Other problems in the Aegean will have been resolved.

2. The military establishment in Turkey and some Arab Gulf states - including Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait - will have already given access for a major build-up of US forces, with the UK likely to contribute up to 50,000 troops as well. An all out attack on Iraq will have changed the Baghdad regime sometime before end-2003. This would have caused major changes in the Arab north-east and in Israel. But the danger of a tricky figure like Binyamin Netanyahu succeeding Ariel Sharon and keeping the peace efforts between the Palestinians and Israel derailed would have posed a big problem for the US. So a possible gray area on that score would have to be dealt with by the Washington strategists.

3. Changes in Tehran an elsewhere to the east will have led to the launch of big gas pipeline projects, with the gas eventually to reach West Europe from Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This huge stream of relatively clean energy will pass through Turkey, Greece, the Balkans, under the Adriatic, Italy and other parts of Central Europe. Plans for Ankara's admission to the EU will have become more advanced; Turkey's credibility as a guarantor for the security of energy supplies to Europe will have been established. By then, before 2010, energy security in Europe will have meant diversification of the sources for EU's gas supply, which will have reduced European dependence on Russian gas. This is only a part of the "big picture" which the US will have projected in maintaining a "new Pax Americana" over Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere.

3. The widening of Washington's options in its war against global terrorism, beginning with a bigger picture for the East Mediterranean and its Oriental hinterland, will not only secure longevity for a "new Pax Americana" over Europe, but will also help the US successfully to mediate for solutions to such complex conflicts as the one between the Palestinians and Israel, the future of the Golan Heights and Syria, the future of Lebanon, etc.

It is in view of this perspective, for example, that some US officials have recently begun secret contacts with "frozen figures" like Michel Aoun. Gen. Aoun, a former Lebanese Army commander, once acted as a co-prime minister of Lebanon. He was ousted by the Syrians and exiled to France in a trade-off involving a September 1990 deal between the late Syrian President Hafez Al Assad and then US President George Bush, father of the current US ruler, who in November 1992 lost the American presidential elections to Bill Clinton because of recession. The Bush father, who had become a war hero for having liberated Kuwait from Iraq in early 1991, had left the job against Saddam Hussein unfinished. The widening of US' options, thanks to Osama Bin Ladin, also means Bush Jr can make a deal with the enemies of Assad Jr.

This possibility, US experts tell APS, should not be lost on anyone else in the world who thinks one can escape from the net cast against the wider "axis of evil". Even North Korea's ruler Kim Jong Il has become vulnerable to the war against global terror. So a "new Pax Americana" is being established, and will be strengthened, everywhere including Asia, the Pacific and the rest of the world.

In conclusion, there will always be a better scenario against one being built up to counter the world's sole superpower, such as the scenario of a biblical confrontation awaiting the US in the Muslim World (see the envisaged Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus axis vs Bush's in News Service No. 13). Thus it is important for geo-politicians to watch how things will unfold in the East Mediterranean.

The EU will play a critical role in developing the atmosphere of peace in the East Mediterranean. It will involve backstage co-ordination with the US, because without the latter it would be virtually impossible to get the Turkish side to give its blessings to the way a Cyprus solution is envisaged. US State Department Special Co-ordinator for Cyprus, Thomas Weston, met with President Clerides on March 21 in Nicosia. Upon arriving on the island, he had said: "I can't say that they (the talks between Denktash and Clerides) appear to be moving with the needed urgency the (UN) Security Council asked for". He added that a settlement in 2002 was feasible, noting "we made a judgement as an international community that it's feasible and we think it ought to be done".

On that same day, EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenther Verheugen made a suggestion after a meeting in Athens with Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou that the signing of the accession agreements "must be under the Acropolis, it must be in Athens". Verheugen added that the EU expects "Turkey to play a constructive role in the negotiations for the solution of the Cyprus problem", and he had earlier told the Dutch newspaper 'De Volkskrant' that Denktash knew he faced a "strategic dilemma". He pointed out that Denktash knew "he only has to lose if he does not change his position, since he will have to face increasing reaction from Turkish Cypriots, 50% of whom are unemployed, while in the southern part of the island there are 40,000 foreign, mostly Asian, workers".

The key to a Cyprus solution, however, lies in the growing rapprochement between Greece and Turkey. Over the past two years, the neighbouring countries have embarked on an unprecedented diplomatic engagement as well as cultural interaction. This is partly the result of growing pressure from the US on both sides, while Turkey's desire to become a member of the EU is another driving factor. Those involved are well aware that settlement of Greco-Turkish disagreements will bolster US moves to consolidate its strategic objectives from West Europe to the Pacific. Ankara and Athens are also aware of the rewards that will follow a peace pact between them and resulting East Mediterranean economic partnerships.