Earlier forecast confirmed, 6% growth still expected in 2003. (Casting Market Trends).Ongoing interviews with major casting end-users reinforce earlier forecasts of 6.3% growth in U.S. casting shipments in 2003. Increases in imports, however, are predicted to reduce shipments in specific product sectors. Light vehicle production in the U.S. increased in '02 to a level exceeding 12 million units, and is expected to rise by another 320,000 this year. Medium-to-heavy truck and trailer production is expected to rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective slightly from its '02 record lows. Railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. freight car deliveries also are predicted to rebound from 17,000 to 28,000 cars. Housing starts are forecast to rise another 3% in '03 as interest rates remain low for at least the next 6 months. Gray Iron Gray iron casting shipments fell 1.9% last year and are expected to remain down again in '03 as automotive applications decline. Motor Vehicles--Light vehicle production in the U.S. saw another good year in '02 (up 9%), led by transplant transplant or graft Partial or complete organ or other body part removed from one site and attached at another. It may come from the same or a different person or an animal. One from the same person—most often a skin graft—is not rejected. production. Light trucks reached record levels, rising to 58% of total light vehicles produced. Despite the forecast for another good light vehicle production year in '03, casting shipments are expected to continue to decline. Casting shipments for light vehicle applications fell to 1.36 million tons in '02, and are forecast to drop another 12% this year to 1.2 million tons, due to the conversion of iron blocks, heads and other parts to aluminum. The recovery of truck production in the second half of '03 is expected to spur a 30% increase in casting shipments from the low of '02. Diesel Engines--Spurred by the expected rebound in truck production, diesel engine production in the U.S. is forecast to rise 14% this year. Casting shipments, which dropped to a new low last year, are forecast to increase 15% in '03. Imports are expected to continue high at 35% of the demand. Machine Tool--After being down 25% last year, machine tool shipments in the U.S. are expected to improve yet remain relatively soft in '03. An increase of 10% in casting shipments is predicted. Municipal Castings--Casting shipments are forecast to increase 1.5% in '03 as housing starts continue to rise. Imports, primarily from India, remain near the 100,000-ton level for manhole covers, frames, grates and covers, while the gray iron imports for the entire road construction sector is double that figure. Pumps & Compressors--Based on the expected growth in industrial production in '03, casting shipments are forecast to rise 5% this year. Special Industry Machinery--A resurgence re·sur·gence n. 1. A continuing after interruption; a renewal. 2. A restoration to use, acceptance, activity, or vigor; a revival. in the food products, packaging, paper and printing industries this year should help increase casting shipments by 3%. Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. & Air Conditioning--While this sector should increase about 4.4% this year, imports are expected to keep casting shipments low at 142,000 tons in '03. Substitutions of aluminum for iron castings continue. Ductile Iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. Ductile iron shipments increased last year to reach 4 million tons. A 7% increase is projected for '03. Pressure Pipe--Shipments of ductile iron pipe are expected to approach 2 million tons this year based on growth in housing starts and construction activity. Substitution of PVC PVC: see polyvinyl chloride. PVC in full polyvinyl chloride Synthetic resin, an organic polymer made by treating vinyl chloride monomers with a peroxide. continues, restricting the overall growth picture. Motor Vehicles--Despite the increase in light truck production, ductile ductile /duc·tile/ (duk´til) susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. duc·tile adj. Easily molded or shaped. ductile susceptible of being drawn out without breaking. iron's weight per vehicle is declining based on conversion of carriers and suspension castings to aluminum, Casting shipments in light vehicles is forecast to reach 1,140,000 tons. After the '02 low, casting tonnage TONNAGE, mar. law. The capacity of a ship or vessel. 2. The act of congress of March 2, 1799, s. 64, 1 Story's L. U. S. 630, directs that to ascertain the tonnage of any ship or vessel, the surveyor, &c. for medium-to-heavy trucks is expected to increase 50% to about 216,000 tons. Construction Machinery & Equipment--Spurred by exports, shipments of construction machinery are expected to increase by 4% this year. Casting shipments are forecast to rise 5% to 190,000 tons after two consecutive down years. Oil Field Equipment--Continued high oil prices could spur activity in oil field equipment this year and result in a 4.5% increase in casting shipments. Replacement of existing equipment also is expected to contribute to the increase in demand. Farm Machinery & Equipment--Increases in sales of two- and four-wheel drive tractors are expected to lead to a 7.50/0 increase in casting shipments after a 12% loss in '02. Cast Steel Based on a forecasted increase in freight car deliveries, a 15% increase (140,000 tons) of steel casting Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. shipments is expected in '03. Railroad--Casting shipments fell to a new low of 260,000 tons in '02, based on the delivery of 17,000 freight cars. An expected increase in deliveries to 28,000 units is forecast to increase casting consumption to nearly 400,000 tons in '03. Mining Machinery--After many down years in the production of mining machinery in the U.S., a turnaround Turnaround A situation where a company that has had poor performance for an extended period of time experiences a positive reversal. Notes: A speculator may profit from a turnaround if he or she accurately anticipates the improvement of a poorly performing company. year is expected in '05 to begin a resurgence of casting usage in this sector. A 9% increase in casting shipments is forecast for '03. Valves--After five years of decline, casting consumption in valve applications is expected to rise 6% this year. About 25,000 tons of imports of carbon steel valves are forecast to keep shipments down despite demand increases. A growth in corrosion-resistant steel valves is expected to reach 26,000 tons. Oil Field Equipment--Based on continuing high oil prices, casting consumption in this sector is expected to remain high at 42,000 tons. Aluminum Despite a forecast of only a 2.6% increase in motor vehicle production in '03, conversions from iron in motor vehicle applications is expected to spur a nearly 10% growth in aluminum casting shipments. Shipments from the permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. and sandcasting processes are forecast to rise 14% in '03, while an 8% growth is expected for die castings die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. . Motor Vehicle--The average weight of cast aluminum is expected to reach 235 lb per vehicle in '03. Following is aluminum's estimated penetration in '04 as a percentage of the total motor vehicles produced: engine blocks (45%), cylinder heads (90%), suspension parts (30%), differential carriers (30%), intake manifolds Noun 1. intake manifold - a manifold consisting of a pipe to carry fuel to each cylinder in an internal-combustion engine fuel system - equipment in a motor vehicle or aircraft that delivers fuel to the engine (33%), wheels (75%), transmission cases (98%). Internal Combustion combustion, rapid chemical reaction of two or more substances with a characteristic liberation of heat and light; it is commonly called burning. The burning of a fuel (e.g., wood, coal, oil, or natural gas) in air is a familiar example of combustion. Engines--Casting shipments are forecast to increase 12% this year to 112,000 tons as use in marine, lawn mower mower, farm machine used for cutting grasses and other hay crops. Mowers, drawn by or attached to tractors, or self-propelled, have superseded scythes. The mower is essentially an adaptation of the much earlier reaper. The first commercial mower was patented in 1847. and other applications grow. Copper-Base Despite an increase in imports, industrial valve and pump growth is forecast to spur brass and bronze applications in '03. Substitution of plastic parts is restricting growth. This article was adapted from one that appeared in the Spring issue of AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System. AFS - Andrew File System Member Connections, the Society's newsletter for AFS corporate members. U.S. Metal Casting Shipments & Forecast (Thousands of Tons) Metal 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Gray Iron 5003 4910 4911 5050 5202 Ductile Iron 3990 4074 4367 4579 4838 Steel 1170 950 1140 1230 1380 Aluminum 1900 2050 2250 2450 2580 Copper 295 303 314 322 326 |
|
||||||||||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion