EXPERTS SPLIT OVER STATE'S POWER OUTLOOK.

Byline: Dana Bartholomew Staff Writer

The president's energy czar and state power grid operators predicted Thursday that summer blackouts ``appear inevitable'' in California, even though state power analysts see a far juicier forecast.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham told a Senate hearing Thursday that the energy outlook for the Golden State appeared grave.

``The problem will get worse, and blackouts this summer appear inevitable,'' Abraham said, adding he hoped ``California doesn't start a wave of blackouts that go beyond its borders.''

The California Independent System Operator said peak summer demand will increase 40 percent and predicted the state will be 5,000 megawatts short - enough to cause rolling blackouts in an estimated 5 million homes.

And for Southern California - which faced three straight weeks of Stage 3 power alerts in January without a single blackout - count your flashlight batteries, suggested Cal-ISO spokesman Patrick Dorinson.

``Everybody will face a net shortage: This will be the summer to be remembered,'' he said. ``If you have relatives in other states, tell them to send you a box of electricity.''

Energy experts at the California Energy Commission and the Legislative Analyst's Office depict a much more optimistic scenario.

While supplies will be tight, the state might just keep the lights on if new power plants are completed, energy contracts with suppliers are in place, conservation measures are enacted and energy legislation is pushed through, they say.

While each agency disagrees on the numbers, their message is clear: Rather than a 5,000 megawatt peak power deficit, California is looking at a possible surplus between 2,600 and 6,100 megawatts.

One megawatt supplies about 1,000 homes.

``At the end of the day, we feel there will be additional savings, generating capacity,'' said Brad Williams, an economist in the Legislative Analyst's Office. ``There are proposals on the table that deal with the (energy) gap. Will they be successful? We think yes.''

Los Angeles, Burbank and Glendale each own utilities independent of the power grid which could generate surplus energy that can be sold to aid customers of Southern California Edison. The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power is expected to sell between 300 and 1,000 megawatts of peak surplus power.

With most of the state's power plants in Southern California and a transmission bottleneck that limits power flowing north, the possibility of blackouts is greater in San Francisco, analysts said.

``I think Southern California is at less risk of blackouts,'' Williams said from his Sacramento office. ``Draw the line at Tehachapi; the risk is clearly up here.''

Most, however, say so many variables come into play - such as the severity of summer heat, the number of power plants down for repair, the extent of new generation and energy efficiencies - that blackouts are difficult to predict.

``We don't have a real precise prognosis of what we think will happen this summer,'' said SoCal Edison spokesman Steve Hansen. ``We know power supplies are going to be very tight and we urge our customers as much as possible to conserve energy.''

Added Claudia Chandler of the California Energy Commission: ``We are concerned about rolling blackouts this summer. We really need to see that legislation is passed to get those (energy) programs.''

THURSDAY'S DEVELOPMENTS

Here is a look at developments in California's electricity crisis:

State grid officials impose a power alert for the first time since March 5 as reserves fall below 5 percent, due to the loss of at least 1,600 megawatts from the Pacific Northwest. That is enough power for about 1.6 million households.

Gov. Gray Davis' order requiring businesses to substantially reduce outdoor lighting after business hours takes effect. Businesses that fail to comply face a potential fine of $1,000 a day, although law enforcement agencies around the state say they'll encourage cooperation rather than become power police.

The Public Utilities Commission votes 4-1 to prohibit Pacific Gas and Electric Co. and Southern California Edison Co. from cutting 3,000 workers. The commission followed an administrative law judge's recommendation that said that 700 previous layoffs already reduced service levels.

The Assembly approves bills that would regulate power plant outages and expand utility programs that cut rates for big power users who turn off electricity during shortages. It also passes a measure that would let those in the interruptible-service programs a year or more opt out with penalty. All three bills now go to the Senate.

The Senate approves a proposal that would give the Senate confirmation power over the governor's appointees to the California Independent System Operator board. It advances to the Assembly.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham sends Davis a letter saying the Bush administration does not oppose the state's proposal to buy utilities' transmission lines, but recommending that the required Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval be contingent on continued open access to the lines by others.

Abraham tells a U.S. Senate hearing that power blackouts ``appear inevitable'' in California this summer and could spill into neighboring states. Davis says his goal ``remains to do whatever humanly possible to avoid blackouts.''

Religious leaders and public health officials warn that children and the elderly could suffer increased breathing troubles this summer if the state relaxes environmental standards to build new power plants.

The ISO board approved a conservation program that would pay large power users that commit the day before or the day of an anticipated power shortage to cutting their electricity use.

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Box: THURSDAY'S DEVELOPMENTS (See text)