EXPECTATIONS HIGH FOR HOLIDAY `X-MEN,' `DA VINCI' MAY PUSH MEMORIAL DAY TO PINNACLE.

Byline: GREG HERNANDEZ Staff Writer

With "X-Men: The Last Stand" joining "The Da Vinci Code" in theaters today, the movie industry will be looking to surpass or come close to grosses from the past two years when it recorded the two biggest Memorial Day weekends of all time at the box office.

"Da Vinci" was expected to cross the $100 million mark in domestic grosses on Thursday after a $77 million opening weekend and impressively strong midweek ticket sales. As of Wednesday, the film's total stood at $97.2 million.

"Memorial Day weekend is one of the most important weekends of the year and ranks among the biggest in terms of box office," Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations Co., said Thursday. "This is the Super Bowl of moviegoing because everyone is off and there's a lot of time for moviegoing."

"X-Men," released by 20th Century Fox, will have to perform big if it is to lead the top 50 movies past the record $246 million earned over Memorial Day in 2004 by a slate led by "Shrek 2," "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Troy."

Last year's holiday total of $231 million was nearly as impressive, with huge numbers from "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith" followed by the hits "Madagascar," "The Longest Yard" and "Monster-in-Law."

Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com, said he expects "X-Men," the third and final installment of a sci-fi action-thriller trilogy, to perform like gangbusters over the four days.

The film stars original cast members Hugh Jackman, Halle Berry and Ian McKellen, among others. The first "X-Men" film opened at $54 million in July 2000 while "X2" had an opening weekend of $85.5 million in early May 2003. None of the films have previously had a Memorial Day weekend release.

"It might rake in more than $100 million over the long weekend," Pandya said. "I think it's going to be gigantic. It's got a built-in audience, is supposedly the final installment and what is really key here is, it has teens and young adults really excited. That will be the driving factor here."

If Pandya's prediction proves correct, "X-Men" has a shot at setting a Memorial Day weekend record for a single film. The current record-holder is "Shrek 2" ($95.6 million) followed by "The Lost World: Jurassic Park" ($90 million), "The Day After Tomorrow" ($85.8 million) and "Bruce Almighty" ($85.7 million).

A robust weekend should also be helped by ticket sales for the Dreamworks' Animation release "Over the Hedge," which opened opposite "Da Vinci" last weekend and had earned $46.3 million as of Wednesday.

"We have three huge films that appeal to different audiences," Pandya said of "X-Men," "Da Vinci" and "Hedge." "They are not on top of each other eating away at each other's ticket sales, which is good for the movie business."

The summer season's first two major releases, the underperforming "Mission Impossible III" and the mega-flop "Poseidon" are quickly declining in theaters.

"MI: III," the mega-hyped Tom Cruise vehicle, has performed solidly overseas but is considered a disappointment domestically, even with a gross of $106.3 million as of Wednesday, while "Poseidon" was at a disastrous $38.9 million.

With those results and a poor reception for "Da Vinci" at the Cannes Film Festival and by many critics, there was some anxiety among film distributors and exhibitors that the summer season could be off to a sluggish start that would be hard to recover from.

But "Da Vinci" is a smash and year-to-date revenue is now up by 5.16 percent over 2005, when the industry was mired in a record streak of down weekends that began in the winter and stretched throughout the summer. Actual attendance is up by 2 percent over 2005 so far.

Still, when compared to 2004, which was a record year for revenue, grosses are down by a half-percent and attendance is behind by 6.5 percent, according to Exhibitor Relations.

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