EXIT OF `SEINFELD' LEAVES DOOR OPEN; AFTER NINE SEASONS ON NBC, SITCOM KING JERRY SEINFELD IS GOING OUT ON TOP.

Byline: Keith Marder Daily News Staff Writers

In its almost nine-year-run, ``Seinfeld'' has brought many viewers to television, catch phrases to the public and a lot of money to a lot of people.

Now, the self-proclaimed show about nothing has created something else: a quandary for a network that already has seen its ratings decline.

Whether the loss of the top-rated sitcom in television, which commands $500,000-per-half-minute ad rates, will make NBC's dominant Thursday night collapse like a souffle in a tap-dancing studio is hard to speculate. That will not be determined until next season, or at the very earliest this spring, when NBC announces its plans to replace ``Seinfeld.''

Time will tell

More than 30 million people watch ``Seinfeld'' each week, and more importantly the show has been a valuable centerpiece to Thursday nights at NBC, helping launch shows that have gone on to prosper on other nights of the week.

Adding to this loss is the fact that the producers of ``ER'' are reportedly shopping around the top-rated medical drama.

``ER,'' the other key element in the network's unbeatable Thursday lineup, is up for grabs after four seasons, and other broadcast networks are said to be champing at the bit to snatch it away from NBC. Bidding with Warner Bros. and the other companies involved in producing the juggernaut medical drama is expected to reach a whopping $10 million an episode.

NBC was willing to pony up to keep ``Seinfeld,'' offering the comedian between $4.5 million and $5 million per show to come back for a 10th year. The loss of ``Seinfeld'' makes it imperative that NBC retain ``ER,'' or it's back to the drawing board on Thursday nights.

``I think it will definitely be a bargaining chip for Warner Bros. and the cast and production team on `ER,' '' said William Croasdale, president of the national broadcast division of media buying firm, Western International Media.

Compounding the issue is the fact that NBC is coming off a difficult November ratings sweeps period. While it still came out on top in the coveted 18- to 49-year-old demographic, its household ratings plummeted nearly 10 percent from the same period last year, and it finished behind CBS in total viewers.

Some industry observers, however, do not think ``Seinfeld's'' exit will dramatically alter the balance of power in network television.

Resilient network

NBC has been the top-rated network on Thursday nights for a dozen years, and it has sustained the loss of other hits such as ``Cheers,'' ``Cosby,'' and ``L.A. Law.''

``Before you put nails in NBC's coffin, you should wait to see what they will do,'' Croasdale said. ``Never count those people out. They always manage to retain dominance on that night.''

Robert Thompson, the head of the television department at Syracuse University's Newhouse School of Journalism, believes that viewing habits are ingrained so deeply into popular culture that NBC will have a cushion when to comes to convincing viewers there is life after ``Seinfeld.''

``I think if they lost both `ER' and `Seinfeld,' that would perhaps be the end of a long, long dynasty, one of the longest in television history,'' Thompson said. ``But they have a lot of equity on Thursday nights. They can get away with an awful lot in that time slot before they lose people.''

But what will occupy that slot? Smart money is on ``Frasier,'' one of the smartest comedies on network television. Last year, when everyone waited to see if ``Seinfeld'' would come back for its ninth season, NBC had reportedly put together a mock schedule with ``Frasier,'' a one-time Thursday night show, in the time period.

``The only show they have on the schedule right now that they could move in there is `Frasier,' '' Croasdale said. ``But there's nothing to say that they won't gamble and try to do a spinoff with the current cast. Maybe Elaine and George, or Kramer in his own sitcom. It's not inconceivable. I'm sure they would all love to have their own vehicle.''

Spinoff material

Besides, they are out of work. Seinfeld's decision to end ``Seinfeld,'' cost each of them $13.2 million ($600,000 an episode) for next season. Seinfeld also took with him many high-paying jobs for the entire cast and crew.

Thompson, who agrees that ``Frasier'' is the logical choice to replace ``Seinfeld,'' is not as keen on a spinoff.

``Elaine by herself is a ludicrous, ridiculous character,'' he said. ``None of them are leading people. It would probably be a show like (``Mary Tyler Moore spinoff) `Rhoda.' But I thought `Frasier' would go the way of ``AfterMASH.' ''

Thompson opined the only show on network television that is hip and clever enough to replace ``Seinfeld,'' is ``The Simpsons'' on Fox.

``It is the only show that I see living up to that Thursday expectation,'' he said. ``Other than that, I think the only interesting comedies left on television are `The Larry Sanders Show' on HBO and `South Park' and `Dr. Katz' on Comedy Central. They (NBC executives) have a cushion where they can use `Seinfeld' to introduce what they think will be their next hit. They think `Frasier' is a lot hipper than it is. I can't picture a group of college kids gathering around a television set to watch `Frasier' like they watch `Seinfeld.' ''

Going out on top

``Seinfeld'' began as a show struggling to remain on the schedule, and it leaves in a dominant spot. It has been the top-rated television comedy since 1994 and trailed only ``Home Improvement'' the previous season.

``I think he's doing the right thing,'' said Dorothy Swanson, president and founder of Viewers for Quality Television, which endorses `Seinfeld.' ``I give him credit for going out while he was on top. He didn't want to wait until he wore out his welcome. Compare that to `Murphy Brown,' which is going to go out struggling.''

Thompson, too, feels that ``Seinfeld'' is getting out while still being fresh and inventive.

``It's refreshing to see a show leave before it's totally baroque,'' Thompson said. ``Like `Happy Days' by the end, Fonzie owned a garage, was the half-owner of Arnold's and the dean of boys - anything they could do to squeeze out more episodes. Aesthetically, (Seinfeld) did the right thing, but there are so many ways to judge this. It was not a crowd-pleasing decision because a lot of people still enjoy watching this show. Financially, for his own bank account it was not (a great decision), and I don't think he'll ever find another vehicle as good as this one. Look at other Thursday night stars like Ted Danson and Cosby, they never found another vehicle like they had.''

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PHOTO no caption (Jerry Seinfeld)