EVERYBODY HAS AN OPINION.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing 

It's differences of opinion that make horse races, as Mark Twain famously pointed out, and this week brought a handicappers' disagreement worthy of America's richest race.

When Breeders' Cup promoters put out their weekly official rankings of contenders for the eight-race program Oct. 25 at Santa Anita, No. 1 on the list for the $4 million Breeders' Cup Classic was an England-based colt named Moon Ballad, and tied for No. 2 were U.S. stars Empire Maker, Funny Cide, Medaglia d'Oro, Mineshaft and Congaree.

But when the first round of parimutuel ``future'' wagering on the Classic was conducted at tracks nationwide last Friday through Sunday, fans made Empire Maker a solid 3.7-1 favorite to win the race - and rated Moon Ballad no better than ninth choice at 22-1 odds.

That horseplayers disagree with racing officials is not news, yet the disparity in their views of a race, even 12 weeks before it is run, is remarkable. Either the rankings are worthless or the fans who got Moon Ballad at 22-1 should be congratulated on the bet of the year.

The rankings are the product of the opinions of a committee of racing secretaries and track handicappers that includes Del Mar vice president of racing Tom Robbins, Arlington Park's Frank Gabriel, New York's Mike Lakow and counterparts from England, Ireland and France. As Robbins describes the process, the committee rarely meets even by telephone so its members can compare notes. The U.S. trio submits its ratings. The European trio does the same. A Breeders' Cup employee melds the ratings into a top 10.

The European experts were so impressed with Moon Ballad's hometown victory over Harlan's Holiday in the Dubai World Cup in March that they pushed the 4-year-old colt owned by Dubai's Godolphin Racing Inc. to the top of the list with a theoretical handicap of 125 pounds. Five U.S.-based horses, including Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker and Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide, fell in below Moon Ballad with a theoretical 123 pounds.

``We're not touting anybody on who we think they should bet,'' Robbins said Thursday from Del Mar. ``We are saying that (Dubai World Cup) performance was the best this year at that distance. ... We (U.S. committee members) wouldn't disagree with the number they (the Europeans) gave that horse off that one effort.''

The Dubai World Cup, whose $6 million purse makes it the world's richest race, is run under similar conditions to the Breeders' Cup Classic, 1 1/4 miles on a dirt track. Moon Ballad's five-length victory over Harlan's Holiday, later beaten by three lengths by Congaree in the Hollywood Gold Cup, was a smasher, no question.

But, apparently, that wasn't enough to convince most of the American bettors who made future wagers. They slotted Moon Ballad below Empire Maker, Mineshaft (5.2-1), Medaglia d'Oro (10-1), Congaree (11-1), Funny Cide (12-1), Perfect Drift (13-1), Milwaukee Brew (18-1) and Ten Most Wanted (20-1).

One reason for the disagreement is that horse racing is the rare sport in which fans' analysis is generally more exhaustive than executives'.

While the racing secretaries were fixated on the single performance that established Moon Ballad's all-world stature, grandstand handicappers saw that the Dubai World Cup was his only Group 1 (equivalent of the U.S. Grade I) victory and that in his next start he finished ninth in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Ascot.

Also, bettors here naturally form stronger opinions about the horses they've watched race here than about a horse running in far-off Dubai and England, and are skeptical that the latter actually will come to Arcadia for the Classic (let alone win, something only one foreign horse has done in the Classic, the 133-1 stunner Arcangues in 1993 at Santa Anita).

After the future betting closed Sunday, bettors got some vindication when Moon Ballad and jockey Frankie Dettori finished fifth to Reel Buddy and Pat Eddery in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday at England's Goodwood racecourse.

Breeders' Cup Classic contention will continue to sort itself out this weekend as Empire Maker and Funny Cide race - though not against each other - for the first time since the former helped to deny the latter the Triple Crown. Empire Maker runs Sunday in Saratoga's $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, where his opponents include Swaps Stakes winner During. Funny Cide goes for bigger cash Sunday in Monmouth Park's $1 million Haskell Invitational, facing Peace Rules and Sky Mesa.

Meanwhile, Medaglia d'Oro, Harlan's Holiday and 2002 Breeders' Cup Classic upsetter Volponi head Saratoga's $750,000 Whitney Handicap on Sunday.

The Breeders' Cup rankings are useful for the publicity they generate and possibly, later, for helping officials to screen borderline entries.

I would tell fans to take the rankings with a grain of salt.

But it appears they already do that.

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- Kevin Modesti