ETHERNET MAN SWITCHES WILL PREVAIL FOLLOWING DISMAL 2002.

The Ethernet Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) switch market continues to be held hostage by the downturn in the economy, according to In-Stat/MDR, Scottsdale, Ariz.

The high-tech market research firm reports that a veritable conspiracy between the incumbent service providers and their traditional equipment vendors will continue to stifle the spread of "LAN-style" Ethernet MANs, until both venture capital availability and subscriber demand for high-bandwidth access come on strong again.

However, Ethernet has proven itself to have a compelling set of market advantages, and despite the bleak picture in 2002, Ethernet MAN switches are expected to exhibit an end-use revenue Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 56 percent, reaching $5.9 billion in 2006.

"Despite the intimidating set of market conditions arrayed before "LAN-style" Ethernet MANs, the truth is out there," said Lauri Vickers, manager of In-Stat/MDR's LAN group.

"The true extension of the LAN into the MAN space will take place, but it is most likely going to have to be done as an end-run around the existing service providers and their equipment vendors. They will not give up their high-margin services or equipment to the inevitable commoditization of Ethernet without a fight."

In-Stat/MDR also found the following:

-- Gigabit Ethernet will account for the majority of the Ethernet MAN switch market through 2006. However, 10 Gigabit Ethernet is expected to ramp up rapidly in this space and cannibalize Gigabit Ethernet implementations.

-- The market will be driven primarily by an increased demand for downstream bandwidth, the increasing localization of traffic, the trend toward outsourcing, Ethernet's ability to offer dynamic allocation and plug and play upgrades, and the comparatively lower cost per gigabit that Ethernet offers.

-- Market barriers are high, and Ethernet will have to work hard to overcome market confusion about "enhanced" Ethernet, a tough venture capital climate for carriers, a lack of "dark fiber" in the MAN geography, resistance to commodity level margins from carriers and vendors, and the lack of a "killer app" to drive demand for Fast Ethernet and faster subscriber connections.

The report, "Ethernet MAN Switches: The Truth is Out There" (#IN020174LN), provides an overview of the Ethernet MAN switch equipment market. The structure and requirements of "LAN-style" Ethernet MANs are reviewed. Emerging standards and product segments are evaluated.

Market shares for fiber Gigabit Ethernet equipment are evaluated and discussed. A listing and brief description of established and start-up equipment vendors are presented. Multi-year market revenue forecasts are also presented for each technology segment.

To purchase this report, or for more information, visit http://www.instat.com/catalog/cat-ln.htm or call Matthew Woods at 617/630-2139. The report is priced at $2,995.

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