ENROLLMENT DROP CUTS INTO FUNDING HIGH HOME PRICES BLAMED FOR PREDICTED $3 MILLION LOSS.

Byline: Alex Dobuzinskis Staff Writer

GLENDALE - High housing prices have led to the largest enrollment decline in Glendale public schools in 25 years, causing school district officials to worry about a budget crunch.

Since enrollment declined sharply from its historic high of 30,329 in the 2001-02 school year, the Glendale Unified School District has found itself with enough classroom space to switch three elementary schools from year-round to traditional calendars.

But the declining enrollment also hits GUSD in the pocketbook - to the tune of about $5,000 per student per year. That means a potential loss of more than $3 million in state revenue for next year alone.

One area that could eventually be affected is advanced placement courses for high school students, as school officials anticipate cutting back from the generous array of classes offered with higher enrollment.

``I look at it as bittersweet. There's pros and cons to this,'' school board member Greg Krikorian said. ``If we can reduce class sizes, I'm all for it, but now the challenge is, how do you reduce class sizes and reduce funding as well. And that's going to be the magical trick ... how we do that.''

In a report presented to the school board last week, district officials anticipated losing about 600 students next year.

That would bring enrollment to 27,248. The district would lose some 600 students the following year, 650 the next and 500 in the 2009-10 school year, the last in the forecast.

``We don't see an end'' to declining enrollment, said Stephen Hodgson, the district's chief business and financial officer. ``It's certain at some point in time we'll stop declining. We've seen cycles before but we haven't seen cycles like this in probably 25 years or more.''

The district has eliminated about 60 positions in the last couple of years, but it has avoided laying anyone off just by leaving positions vacant after retirements or shifting employees around. But the district has trouble eliminating teacher positions when student losses are spread over various schools.

It would be easier if enrollment declined enough in one grade at a school to eliminate a class, instead of having to juggle teacher assignments to meet student losses at all schools, Hodgson said.

``We've reduced millions of dollars in costs, and each year becomes more difficult because you've already made reductions,'' he said.

GUSD's enrollment losses will be even worse, if the state's enrollment tracking software is any guide. The State Allocation Board's numbers predict a loss of 678 students next year, with enrollment losses in the following years of 776, 901, 836, 938 and 846.

Officials arrive at the projections by using historical trends and calculating how enrollment will be affected as students move through the grade levels. GUSD officials put more stock in their own projections than the ones done with the State Allocation Board software.

Burbank Unified is also losing students, although the district has sought to counter that trend by accepting those who live outside the city but whose parents work in Burbank at least 40 hours a week.

BUSD is still tabulating its enrollment projections for the next few years, but the district lost more than 100 students this school year. The district has about 15,500 students.

The district's incoming kindergarten class could be one of the smallest in years, which will hurt financially since the number of students in elementary and high school will be out of balance, Superintendent Greg Bowman said.

It costs more to educate high school students than elementary pupils. But with enrollment down in the lower grades, the district will have trouble following its usual practice of supplementing secondary education with money it gets for elementary students, Bowman said.

Officials in both school districts said they are losing students because of high housing prices, plus a trend toward declining birth rates in urban areas.

``The city definitely recognizes that there is a housing issue in Glendale, and many of the home prices in Glendale and the surrounding areas ... are beyond the reach of many families, in particular young families,'' said Bob McFall, the city of Glendale's assistant city manager.

Despite residential projects in the permitting and development pipeline, Glendale still might not have enough affordable housing to combat the enrollment drop, he said.

``It's likely that it won't be enough to meet all the housing needs,'' he said. ``But it will go a long way toward providing some alternative quality housing.''

Alex Dobuzinskis, [phone]

alex.dobuzinskis(at)dailynews.com