ENROLLMENT DOWNTURN EXPECTED; DROP WILL MEAN LESS FUNDING.

Byline: Jennifer Hamm Staff Writer

Glendale school officials anticipate a decline in student enrollment starting next year that could mean less money but more classroom space.

A dip of as many as 150 students in the fall could ultimately translate into a loss of $600,000 in state funds, including those doled out per pupil, said Steve Hodgson, assistant superintendent of business services for the Glendale Unified School District. But a declining enrollment, or even a small increase, also means less crowding and a respite from years of growth.

Because of class-size reduction and rapid growth beginning in the late 1980s, the district has had to add hundreds of new classrooms.

``Without adding new schools, we don't have much room for growth,'' Hodgson said. However, ``from a financial perspective, it's always a little better for student enrollment to be growing than declining.''

Although administrators use sophisticated software to forecast enrollment trends, there are several elusive variables that make estimating future enrollments tough.

More than 30,400 students attend Glendale schools this school year. Dips in elementary school enrollments next year are expected to pull district totals to under 30,300.

Like other districts countywide, elementary schools are housing fewer students while high school head counts are increasing.

Since the mid-1990s, Hodgson said, kindergarten enrollment has dipped by as much as 3 percent annually. That drop is attributed to a declining birthrate.

In Los Angeles County, the birthrate in 1997 - the most recent set of statistics available - was the lowest it had been since 1979, said Larry Portigal, chief of data collection and analysis for the Department of Public Health Programs and Services. There were 16.8 births for every 1,000 people in 1997, continuing a downward trend that started in the early 1990s.

``It's been steadily declining every year,'' Portigal said.

Portigal said there is no way to predict future birthrates. He also said it's difficult to identify if cultural factors contribute to birthrate figures.

One variable that plays a major role in enrollment trends is local real estate. School officials agree that calculating the number of new families moving into the district is even tougher than following birthrates.

``Glendale is still a popular place to live but our homes are still pretty expensive,'' Hodgson said. ``We can't really keep track of people coming and going.''

School officials also point out that predicted enrollment trends are just that - predictions. Last year, an enrollment drop was expected and Glendale schools actually grew this year.

``Slow growth is certainly better than significant growth,'' Hodgson said. ``Declining enrollment is also manageable as long as it's moderate.''

Even if enrollment does drop next year, the district won't lose the $4,000 in per-pupil funding until the following year, Hodgson said. State funding formulas, he said, are set up so that districts can decide to be funded the amount allocated to them in the current or previous year.

``The state's funding formula moderates districts that may be declining,'' Hodgson said. ``That, I think, really flattens these cycles.''

If Glendale schools do experience sustained declines in coming years, it will be up to the Board of Education to decide where funding cuts would be made.

District officials will continue to calculate enrollment estimates well into the spring.

In Burbank, school officials estimate their overall enrollment figures will continue to grow.

Although the number of students in elementary schools is expected to decline, secondary schools will grow, according to Burbank Unified School District estimates.

The declining birth rate is a factor, said Superintendent David Aponik. A real estate market that attracts younger families, however, plays a more significant role, he said.

Despite the healthy growth of the city, school enrollment is expected to slow in coming years, Aponik said.

``We're going to continue to grow, but not at the rate that we have been,'' he said.

In Los Angeles - home to the second largest school district in the country - student enrollment has been swelling and is expected to continue to do so, said Gordon Wohlers, assistant superintendent of policy research and development. That is, if the economy continues to grow and there are no natural disasters.

LAUSD's student enrollment hit a new high this year with more than 711,000 children.

``By 2006, even with every school on a year-round calendar, there will not be enough room for every student,'' Wohlers said.