ELECTORAL COLLEGE IS A WINNER.

Byline: Gregg Frazer Local View

SUPPOSE that George Bush W. wins the popular vote today, but John Kerry wins the presidency in the Electoral College. If the polls are correct, this is a distinct possibility. Would the people who complained bitterly about the Electoral College system after the 2000 election mount a similar campaign against the system in 2004? I don't think so.

Herein lies the problem with critics of the Electoral College: They really just want a system which will produce a win for their side. Fortunately, the framers of the Constitution were more statesmanlike and farsighted. They created a system, largely misunderstood today, which adheres to several constitutional principles - not just one.

Federalism, which is the most endangered of constitutional principles today, was very important to the founders. They wanted a system in which the individual states retained a significant amount of power because the states were closest to the people. The Electoral College was set up to recognize states. Abolishing it would be a significant step toward reducing the states to mere administrative organs.

Critics say that the popular vote is more representative. But because they must win the support of states, candidates under the Electoral College system must appeal to very different constituencies and develop a truly national consensus. In 2000, Bush won 30 states and five-sixths of America's counties. Al Gore's margin of victory in the national popular vote was his margin of victory in New York City: 500,000 votes. Gore won California and New York state by 3 million votes. Outside of those two states, Bush won the popular vote by 2.5 million.

Whose vote was more representative?

Elimination of the Electoral College system would lead to an unprecedented loss of legitimacy in government. Virtually every political scientist acknowledges that direct popular vote would result in multiple presidential candidates and a multiparty system. The result would be a plurality winner (with 60-plus percent of the people opposing) or a run-off system rife with fraud and corruption. If you think we have a legitimacy question now, wait until voter fraud cranks up in every state in order to maximize the national total.

Imagine the 2000 situation in Florida times 50. Ready for nationwide recounts in every county?

Candidates would also become more ideological in order to solidify their base of support. Want direct popular election? Follow a French presidential election just once - you'll be cured.

Critics charge that the 2000 result was ``unfair'' to Al Gore. It was only unfair to the extent that it is ``unfair'' that a football team which gained more yards lost or a baseball team with more hits lost. Gore knew the rules before the contest. What would really be unfair would be to change the rules after the contest is over because you don't like the results.

The last presidential candidate to receive a majority of the popular vote was George Bush in 1988. Where were the complaints about the Electoral College when Bill Clinton garnered only 43 percent of the popular vote in 1992 or 49 percent in 1996?

Critics suggest that, at least, the founders' winner-take-all system should be changed. Colorado's initiative to that effect is touted as a model for other states. The founders did not create the winner-take-all system, however. Their preference was for something very different. States themselves ``invented'' the winner-take-all system in order to maximize their importance. Candidates must pay particular attention to states - even small ones - because they know that all of the state's votes will go to the popular-vote winner of the state. If Colorado's initiative succeeds, Colorado will simply drop from the list of states in which candidates campaign. Why spend time and effort in a state if its electoral votes are simply going to be more or less evenly split with your opponent?

Does anyone believe Bush or Kerry would have spent precious final days of their campaigns in Nevada or New Mexico if their votes were going to be split 3-2? While the American system is not perfect, the genius and foresight of the American founders deserves our appreciation and gratitude, not our scorn.

I almost wish Bush would win the popular vote and Kerry the presidency, just to hear the deafening silence of those who decried the Electoral College system in 2000.