ELECTION '98 AFTER SHOCK.

Furious Over Big Losses On Election Day, Religious Right Leaders Are Gearing Up For A New Push For Power In Congress And The GOP

TV preacher Pat Robertson was clearly upset.

Speaking on his nationally broadcast "700 Club" Nov. 4, the Christian Coalition chairman bemoaned the election results from the day before. Instead of picking up seats in Congress as many had expected, Robertson's Republican allies had suffered a net loss of five spots in the House and only broke even in the Senate.

"The Christians went out to vote," Robertson said, "but they didn't necessarily vote Republican."

Robertson had reason to be annoyed. Despite a massive drive by the Coalition and other Religious Right groups, many of the movement's favored candidates and causes had gone down to defeat at the polls. Their bid to turn the election into a referendum on Bill Clinton and forge conservative Christians into a disciplined voting bloc for the GOP had failed and failed badly.

According to The Washington Post, white Christian conservatives fell from 15 percent of the electorate in 1994 to 13 percent in 1998. And to make matters worse for the Religious Right, many of those who did go the polls pulled the lever for the "wrong" candidates.

Robertson's own survey indicated his Christian Coalition had been unable to corral the evangelical vote. After the election, the Coalition released a Shandwick Research poll that showed 54 percent of "religious conservatives" supporting Republicans and 31 percent selecting Democrats. That contrasted with 1994 when 67 percent voted for the GOP and only 24 percent voted for Democrats.

In specific races the Robertson poll results were even more startling. Over a third of born-again voters in North Carolina picked Democrat John Edwards over Religious Right favorite Lauch Faircloth in the Senate race. In a hotly fought contest in Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District, 51 percent of born-again voters chose Democratic candidate Vic Snyder over Republican conservative Phil Wyrick.

Perhaps most surprisingly, 43 percent of born-again voters in California passed over Republican conservative Dan Lungren and cast their gubernatorial ballots for Democrat Grey Davis, a staunch supporter of abortion rights and anti-discrimination protections for gays.

These results came despite an expensive and determined Religious Right campaign to energize their constituency. All the leading groups took part in the endeavor.

Focus on the Family President James Dobson repeatedly urged his national radio flock to go to the polls and implored pastors to prod their congregants.

FOF distributed literature to Christian activists quoting Dobson as saying, "Your vote is crucial if we are to reintroduce the traditional, family-friendly values on which our nation was founded.... So get involved! The same Jesus who multiplied the young lad's loaves and fishes will be faithful to multiply the efforts of those of us who honor his name in the political process."

Gary Bauer, Dobson's protege at the Family Research Council, unleashed huge sums of money on behalf of favored Republican candidates. Bauer's political action committee, the Campaign for Working Families, reportedly pumped nearly $3 million into 225 races around the country. Smaller groups such as the Traditional Values Coalition also distributed voter guides and waged get-out-the-vote efforts.

Going into the election, Christian Coalition Executive Director Randy Tate said his group would spend $3.1 million on electioneering. That included money for an estimated 36 million of the Coalition's notorious voter guides, as well as one million automated phone calls and related activities.

"This will be our most comprehensive election-year effort ever," he said. "We are combining the proven methods of grassroots actions with the tools of high-tech to energize people of faith throughout the nation to take an active part in the electoral process on Nov. 3."

(As usual, the Coalition played fast and loose with its numbers. After the election, the Associated Press reported that the Coalition had spent only $1.3 million on its campaign. The true figure may never be known.)

But despite the Religious Right spending frenzy, the Nov. 3 returns were generally disastrous for the Religious Right. An Americans United survey of 28 competitive races where the Religious Right was an important factor showed 22 defeats for the movement.

By far the biggest loss was incumbent Alabama Gov. Fob James. James made school prayer and other religious issues the centerpiece of his administration and his campaign. The governor once threatened to call out the National Guard to defend a Ten Commandments display on an Alabama courtroom wall, and Robertson lawyer Jay Sekulow was brought in to secure majoritarian religious practices in the state's public schools.

Advised by Republican political consultant (and former Christian Coalition executive director) Ralph Reed, James had the support of Religious Right luminaries ranging from Robertson, Jerry Falwell and Dobson to Phyllis Schlafly and the Rev. Don Wildmon.

Yet James lost in the heart of the Bible Belt to Democratic candidate Don Siegelman by 58 percent to 42 percent. To add insult to injury, Siegelman made a state lottery to raise money for public education a top priority of his campaign. Christian Coalition leaders oppose gambling and have little use for public schools.

James wasn't the only loss for the Religious Right. Consider these returns:

* South Carolina, where the Coalition has its strongest state organization, roundly rejected Religious Right standard bearers. Incumbent Gov. David Beasley, a close ally of the Coalition, lost to Democrat Jim Hodges. State superintendent of education candidate Inez Tenenbaum, a Democrat, defeated David Eckstrom, an ardent advocate of vouchers. Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Bob Inglis, a Christian Coalition 100 percenter, failed to unseat incumbent Sen. Fritz Hollings.

* California voters not only defeated Religious Right favorite Dan Lungren in the gubernatorial contest, but also reelected Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Christian Coalition scorecard zero known for her liberal views on abortion and gays. Boxer's opponent Matt Fong tried to run as a moderate, but the news media revealed in the campaign's waning days that he had given $50,000 to the Rev. Lou Sheldon's Traditional Values Coalition, a shrill Religious Right outfit that specializes in gay-bashing.

In another California surprise, Religious Right kingpin Rob Hurtt lost his race for state senate in conservative Orange County. Hurtt, a millionaire business executive, is one of a small cabal of Religious Right fat cats who have tried to dominate the legislature and other state political offices. (See "California Quake," February 1996 Church & State.)

* Texas easily reelected incumbent Republican Gov. George W. Bush, but also turned back a Religious Right bid to win a majority of seats on the state board of education. Religious Right candidates won only two of the four spots they needed to control the panel.

* Kentucky voters choose a Republican to fill an open Senate seat, but they rejected House candidate Gex "Jay" Williams, a rising star of the Religious Right coached by Ralph Reed. Many of Reed's other clients also lost. (See "Bad Advice," page 11.)

Why did the Religious Right do so badly in November? Political observers say many factors were at work.

Americans United for Separation of Church and State waged a strong national campaign to educate religious leaders about the legal and ethical implications of working with the Christian Coalition. AU activists distributed thousands of letters to clergy warning that the Internal Revenue Service has "zero tolerance" for partisan political activity by tax-exempt organizations, including houses of worship.

Many pastors responded favorably and refused to hand out the Coalition's partisan voter guides.

With cogs falling out of their political machine across the country, Robertson and other Coalition leaders unleashed a vicious attack on Americans United and AU Executive Director Barry Lynn. (See "Pat's Pique," page 9.) But the damage to the Coalition's grassroots base was already done.

In addition, this election saw an increase in participation by moderate voters and African Americans, two groups quite unsympathetic to the Religious Right's brand of political extremism. Many of these voters seemed turned off by the focus on President Clinton's failings instead of more substantive issues.

Religious Right leaders were quick to try to shift blame for the Nov. 3 election losses onto House Speaker Newt Gingrich and other GOP leaders on Capitol Hill. They claimed Gingrich and company had made a huge mistake by counting on the Clinton scandals to help Republican candidates. They also blasted congressional Republicans for failing to push Religious Right issues.

But returns indicated that many office seekers who waved the Religious Right banner lost. And Gingrich was hardly alone in his reliance on public hostility to Clinton.

Religious Right leaders also had counted on a big anti-Clinton backlash to help their candidates and causes. The Christian Coalition's "Road to Victory" Conference in September was a veritable Clinton bash-a-thon.

In early October, Christian Coalition spokesman Arne Owens told the Associated Press, "Religious conservatives are undoubtedly highly motivated to go to the polls in November. They are extremely concerned about values and about moral issues, and the problems in the White House are viewed by them as symptomatic of some various severe moral problems in this country."

But that gambit failed. The majority of voters told pollsters the Clinton controversy did not influence their votes in federal, state and local races. No anti-Clinton backlash emerged. Indeed, some observers saw the election as a sign that Americans may disapprove of Clinton's personal conduct, but they disassociated that from his performance of his official duties. And they seemed to have little appetite for the Religious Right's hyper-moralism.

FOF's Dobson was glum. "There's no way to put a smiley face on it," he told The New York Times after the election. "It was a pretty resounding defeat in my view, especially when you have a president mired in scandal who is facing possible impeachment hearings. And the Republicans still could not make that case to voters. That is pretty sad."

A few days later, Dobson lashed out at the American people. "My greatest concern," he told The Washington Post, "is not with the Oval Office or Capitol Hill. My greatest reason for being depressed today is the American people.... The country has lurched to the left. It was not that long ago that Gary Hart had to drop out because of one episode. Here, 10 years later, people don't seem to care. There has been a radical change in the moral tone of the country."

But one conservative Christian columnist said Religious Right leaders are blundering badly by focusing on partisan politics instead of religious and moral change.

Observed Cal Thomas, "The biggest loser in this election is the so-called `Religious Right.' The Christian Coalition's Randy Tare had boldly proclaimed this off-year contest as a referendum on the morality of Bill Clinton. If it was, it means most people either consider him moral, by the low standards of politics, or they don't care.... If the Christian Coalition wants to have real impact, it should contemplate what it means to be truly Christian and focus less on political coalitions. Why bring God down to `Caesar's' level?"

Where does this election leave church-state separation?

The most immediate effect is likely to be in Congress, where Religious Right forces will resume their crusade for legislation reflecting their sectarian viewpoint.

Many of the key congressional players will be different but the gameplan may not change. Ousted House Speaker Gingrich was an ardent booster of religious school vouchers, a school prayer amendment and other threats to church-state separation. But Gingrich's replacement holds similar views.

Speaker-elect Robert Livingston (R-La.) has voted for school vouchers, a Ten Commandments-posting resolution and the Istook "Religious Freedom Amendment." The Louisiana Republican, a Roman Catholic, scored 100 percent on the most recent Christian Coalition congressional scorecard.

Other leadership changes in the House also may reflect more of a shift in personalities than positions on the issues.

Some observers think the election means legislative threats to church-state separation will occur in a less high profile way. Instead of another floor vote on the Istook school prayer amendment, some think action is more likely on school vouchers or "charitable choice" schemes that direct tax dollars to religious ministries.

One thing is certain. The Religious Right's appetite for political power within the Republican Party and Congress has not changed.

Even before the Nov. 3 elections, FOF's Dobson was demanding the ouster of Speaker Gingrich and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott for allegedly compromising too much with President Clinton and Democratic leaders.

"They lost their nerve at the end of the session," Dobson told The New York Times. "They caved in on everything of importance to the pro-family and pro-life community."

Dobson, who threatened to bolt the GOP earlier this year if he didn't get his way, touted Rep. Steve Largent (R-Okla.), a Religious Right stalwart, for a Republican leadership post in the House. Firebrands like Dobson are sure to continue to serve as a divisive element in the Republican Party.

Dobson is a no-compromise hardliner. Asked on CNBC's "Hardball with Chris Matthews" Nov. 10 how he would react if potential GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush picked a veep who supported abortion rights in 2000, Dobson said, "I will do everything I can to beat him."

Republican moderates are worried about the negative impact of the Religious Right on their party. Rep. Chris Shays (R-Conn.) told The New York Times the GOP was hurt this year by the relationship.

"As soon as my [congressional] leaders started to jump when the Christian Coalition and Gary Bauer and others said jump, we lost a lot of voters," Shays observed.