EL NINO TO SOAK PRODUCE BUYERS.

Byline: Jon Nordheimer The New York Times

The rainstorms that pummeled Florida and California this winter are starting to have an economic impact beyond the human misery and dislocations caused by deadly flooding, mudslides and tornadoes.

The cost of a few damaged crops like strawberries in Central Florida has shot up in recent weeks, but the real shock to consumers might not be felt for another month when experts warn of possible drops in the production and quality of vegetables like lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower.

Planting delays forced by muddy fields and incessant rain in the Salinas Valley, the California region produces an estimated three-fourths of iceberg lettuce on grocers' shelves in April, are creating the prospect of a spring ``lettuce gap,'' said state, federal and industry spokesmen.

Artichokes, tomatoes, cabbage and other perishable winter crops are also under stress, but might reach full production if extended dry periods give farmers ample time to pick and ship them to market.

``Consumers are going to face higher prices for specific vegetables this spring because of interruptions in planting and the possibility of harvesting problems,'' said Keith Collins, chief economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Prices in California markets already have risen for strawberries, cabbage, tomatoes and artichokes that normally would be relatively cheap at this time of year and some hard-hit produce like strawberries are in short supply, grocers said.

``Obviously much of the produce we sell comes from the California market and when we have weather problems it creates supply problems,'' said Judy Deckers, a spokeswoman for Lucky Stores Inc.

The outlook for summer farm production, when the bulk of American agriculture is planted and harvested, remains good, Collins said, but not without nagging concerns.

``A potentially bigger problem could occur if the El Nino system ends,'' he said, ``and an extended hot and dry weather takes its place over most of the farm belt this summer.''

A severe drought followed the most recent severe El Nino onslaught, in 1983, creating farm shortages and very high prices, Collins noted. But he said experts disagreed on when El Nino would retreat and what weather pattern would replace it, a situation that has commodity traders in Chicago following every development very closely.

Widespread impact

A drought could have effects more widespread than usual, Collins said, because surpluses of major grains like corn are at the lowest levels in recent history. A setback in the corn harvest, he warned, could place problematic pressures on feed for the livestock industry.

Meanwhile, consumers in much of the country are benefiting from lower home-heating costs as the same El Nino weather pattern that battered California and Florida has helped spread abnormally warm weather over most of the country.

As another bonus felt by millions, a decline in weather-related travel delays has saved countless hours of labor and costs because airplanes, trucks and cars have operated without the usual seasonal impediments of snow and ice in many states. Winter clothing and snow blower sales have slowed, but in many places retail stores are getting an early start on selling sportswear. Golf courses and other outdoor activities are unseasonably robust.

Effect on tourism

Florida tourist destinations continued to insist that all the rain this winter and this week's tornadoes - which killed 39 people in Central Florida two days ago and destroyed millions of dollars worth of property - has not hurt tourism. Maureen Gonzalez, a spokeswoman for the Peabody Hotel in Orlando, said there had not been a single cancellation of a reservation and all 891 rooms were filled with people attending a convention of the American Dermatological Association.

Florida and California both have tourist attractions that draw many of their own residents. Tourism in California has been a mixed picture this season, with the number of hotel cancellations reported to be higher than usual in San Francisco and other coastal destinations but with total demand continuing the strength of recent years.

Farmers devastated 

But for fruit farmers like Carl Grooms of Plant City, Fla., nature's devastation is clear in the strawberry-rich region east of Tampa.

``This is a normal strawberry,'' Grooms said, holding up a scarlet, heart-shaped berry redolent with a fresh, sweet smell.

``And this,'' he said, picking up a smaller, gnarled berry between a thumb and forefinger, ``is garbage.''

With a snap of his fingers, the smaller berry squished into a piece of watery pulp that he threw to the ground with disgust.

And although there was much sunshine Wednesday in Plant City and in Oxnard, the other center of American winter strawberry cultivation, the land was still wet in both places and the anxiety ran deep about whether more storms were forecast.

``I've never seen anything like this in my life,'' Grooms said.