EL NINO'S SUMMER IMPACT A MYSTERY.Byline: SUE VORENBERG
Predicting what an El Nino weather pattern might do in New Mexico New Mexico, state in the SW United States. At its northwestern corner are the so-called Four Corners, where Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah meet at right angles; New Mexico is also bordered by Oklahoma (NE), Texas (E, S), and Mexico (S). this summer is a bit like trying to foresee the behavior of a baby.
It could cry moisture across the Land of Enchantment, or it could stay dry, calm and uneventful for several months, said Jesse Haro, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque.
"In the past we have not been able to establish a weather relationship with really anything from a summertime El Nino," Haro said, referring to a pattern related to warm ocean temperatures. "Sometimes precipitation is above average in New Mexico during an El Nino, sometimes it's below."
Winter, however, could be a different story, he said, because El Ninos have been associated with increased precipitation in colder parts of the year.
The Climate Prediction Climate prediction refers to :
El Ninos are created by warming water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which changes world atmospheric patterns. And sea surface temperatures Sea surface temperature (SST) is the water temperature at the surface. In practical terms, the exact meaning of "surface" will vary according to the measurement method used. in that area have been on the rise for five straight months, the agency reported.
In the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. , while the impact of those patterns may be hard to understand in summer months, in late fall and winter El Ninos generally coincide with increased precipitation and snow in the southern states Southern States
government of 11 Southern states that left the Union in 1860. [Am. Hist.: EB, III: 73]
popular name for Southern states in U.S. and for song. [Am. Hist. , including New Mexico, and drought in the Pacific Northwest.
But while the CPC (1) (Central Processing Complex) An IBM mainframe that has two or more central processors (CPs) that share memory. It is the collection of processors, memory and I/O subsystems manufactured with a single serial number, typically all contained in one cabinet. is predicting El Nino this summer, it's hard to know how long the pattern will stick around or if it will mean a good wet, snowy winter, Haro said.
"Sometimes they last six months, sometimes eight or
12 months," Haro said. "Normally if you have a late fall or winter El Nino it tends to bring more storms to New Mexico."
The last El Nino pattern formed over 2006-2007, and coincided with a wetter-than-normal winter and above average snowfall in parts of the state, Haro said.
Since then, the ocean had been in a La Nina La Niña
A cooling of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America, occurring periodically every 4 to 12 years and affecting Pacific and other weather patterns. pattern, which coincided with two drier years across the state.
For those hoping for more summer moisture and a good monsoon monsoon (mŏnsn) [Arab., mausium=season], wind that changes direction with change of season, notably in India and SE Asia. season, though, one aspect of El Nino is that it tends to reduce the number hurricanes in the Atlantic and increase the number of hurricanes in the Pacific, Haro said.
"That could bring us some moisture if those storms get close enough," Haro said.
Contact Sue Vorenberg at firstname.lastname@example.org.