EL FOLDO NUMERO UNO? LAKERS ON THE VERGE OF LATEST AND POSSIBLY GREATEST COLLAPSE IN POSTSEASON BY A 'SURE THING'.

Byline: Rich Hammond Staff Writer

Remember how boring this NBA season was supposed to be? A few months ago, the common wisdom held that the Lakers, with their ``Fab Four'' of future Hall of Fame players, would ride roughshod over the league and leave the other 28 teams as helpless observers to their coronation.

The fact that it hasn't worked out that way shouldn't come as a huge surprise. The Lakers, in danger of being swept out of the second round, certainly aren't the first team to turn into a playoff flop after major early-season hype. History is littered with them, but this Lakers team might become the most glaring example.

Among them, Gary Payton should be the least surprised. He is now two losses away from twice being the starting point guard on teams that will be remembered for historic playoff flops.

During 1993-94, the first season after the first Michael Jordan retirement, the NBA was considered wide open. The reigns of the Lakers, Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons had ended, and Payton's Seattle SuperSonics emerged as title favorites after finishing a league-best 63-19 in the regular season.

Seattle won the first two games in the best-of-five series with eighth-seeded Denver and at halftime of Game 2, Payton had a physical altercation with teammate Ricky Pierce. The Sonics stunningly lost the next three games and became the first No. 1 seed to lose a playoff series to a No. 8 seed in NBA history.

So, to review: Payton feuds with teammate in 1994, superstar Sonics lose series. Payton feuds with coaching staff in 2004, superstar Lakers ... well, you get the picture.

Talented teams that have suffered memorable playoff flameouts could be grouped in three categories: teams that suffered from what one might call PLS (Post-Championship Letdown Syndrome); teams that were viewed as athletically superior to their opponents but failed; and teams that compiled impressive regular-season marks only to disappear in the postseason.

The Lakers technically could fit into any of those categories, although if they are swept by San Antonio, they likely will be remembered as a superior team that couldn't find the chemistry to match its skill, rather than a former champion that went soft after its title run.

Payton's Sonics were regular-season wonders, as was another team that season - though in another sport.

The Detroit Red Wings totaled a Western Conference-best 100 points with an awesome group of skaters that included Paul Coffey, Sergei Fedorov and Steve Yzerman.

The eighth-seeded San Jose Sharks, in just their second year of existence and making their first playoff appearance, exposed the Red Wings' deficiency in goal - the three-headed monster of Tim Cheveldae, Bob Essensa and Chris Osgood - and dumped the top-seeded Red Wings in seven games.

In the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers went 13-2 in 1987 and the Minnesota Vikings went 15-1 in 1998. Neither team even reached the Super Bowl.

Baseball's biggest letdowns came 95 years apart. The 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners each won a record 116 games - the Cubs played 10 fewer games - but didn't win when it mattered.

The Cubs advanced straight to the World Series and featured the Hall of Fame double-play combination of Joe Tinker, Johnny Evers and Frank Chance, and pitcher Mordecai ``Three Finger'' Brown, also a Hall of Famer. The Cubs dropped the series in six games to the crosstown White Sox.

The Mariners won the wild-card round but then rolled over in five games against the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Payton was not a member of that Seattle team.

Then there are the teams that climbed the championship mountain once, then either slipped or lost interest while attempting a repeat ascent.

The Chicago Bears, who grooved to the ``Super Bowl Shuffle'' in 1985 behind Walter Payton and a suffocating defense, looked just as strong the next year with a 14-2 regular-season record.

But after a first-round bye, the Bears, who had allowed an average of 11.7 points per game during the regular season, were handed a stunning 27-13 loss by the Washington Redskins. Three years earlier, the defending champion Redskins went 14-2 but were crushed by the Raiders 38-9 in the Super Bowl.

And just so the Lakers don't feel lonely, their 1985-86 brethren, in the height of the ``Showtime'' era, won a conference-best 62 games and seemed destined to meet Boston in the NBA Finals again. Until, that is, the Houston Rockets stunned the Lakers in five games in the conference finals. The image of Ralph Sampson making the game-winning shot as time expired in Game 5 remains a vivid one for many Lakers fans.

In some instances, fans look at a team and say, ``How did (fill-in-the-blank) possibly lose?''

The 1990 Oakland A's had tempered the Kirk Gibson-induced horror of 1988 with a World Series title in 1989 and returned a team that was clearly the class of baseball with Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Dave Stewart and Dennis Eckersley.

Then the Cincinnati Reds came along and, with their star outfielder, Eric Davis, on a hospital bed with a lacerated kidney, swept Oakland in the World Series and ruin the A's potential dynasty.

How about the 2001 St. Louis Rams, the ``Greatest Show on Turf?'' They lost to the massive underdog New England Patriots. And the 1981-82 Edmonton Oilers, with a wunderkind named Wayne Gretzky who totaled 92 goals and 120 assists? Does the ``Miracle on Manchester'' ring a bell?

Baseball seemed to have a destined champion three times in one decade, but the 1960 Yankees, 1966 Dodgers and 1969 Baltimore Orioles all lost in the World Series to supposedly inferior opponents.

Bringing it back to the present, nobody will ever confuse the San Antonio Spurs with a bunch of patsies, but before the ink had dried on the contracts of Payton and Karl Malone, pundits were already saying the Lakers should plan a championship parade for June 2004.

History shows that it's not quite so easy.

Rich Hammond, [phone]

rich.hammond(at)dailynews.com

CLOSE, BUT NOT QUITE

1. 1990 Oakland A's (103-59)

Swept in World Series by Cincinnati.

2. 1986 Chicago Bears (14-2)

Lost playoff opener to Washington, 27-13.

3. 1906 Chicago Cubs (116-36)

Lost World Series in six games to White Sox.

4. 1993-94 Seattle SuperSonics (63-19)

Lost in first round in five games to No. 8 Denver.

5. 1993-94 Detroit Red Wings (46-30-8)

Lost in first round in seven games to No. 8 San Jose.

6. 2001 Seattle Mariners (116-46)

Lost ALCS in five games to N.Y. Yankees.

7. 1985-86 Lakers (62-20)

Lost conference finals in five games to Houston.

8. 2001 St. Louis Rams (14-2)

Lost Super Bowl to New England, 20-17.

9. 1981-82 Edmonton Oilers (48-17-15)

Lost in first round in five games to Kings.

10. 1960 New York Yankees (97-57)

Lost World Series in seven games to Pittsburgh.

CAPTION(S):

4 photos, box

Photo:

(1 -- color) In the 2000 NBA Finals, an Indiana fan made the choke sign, which might be more relevant to the Lakers this year.

Don Emmert/Agence France Presse

(2) 1906 CHICAGO CUBS

(3) WAYNE GRETZKY 1982 EDMONTON OILERS

(4) Gary Payton, left, also was on the 1993-94 Seattle SuperSonics, who suffered a historic loss in the first round.

Eric Gary/Associated Press

Box:

CLOSE, BUT NOT QUITE (see text)