EIA & IEA Demand Forecasts.
The EIA (Electronic Industries Alliance, Arlington, VA, www.eia.org) A membership organization founded in 1924 as the Radio Manufacturing Association. It sets standards for consumer products and electronic components. on Nov. 9 estimated world oil demand in 2004 at 82.5m b/d, whereas the Paris-based IEA IEA International Energy Agency
IEA International Environmental Agreements
IEA International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement
IEA Institute of Economic Affairs
IEA Inferred from Electronic Annotation
IEA International Ergonomics Association said global demand this year would average 82.4m b/d. But both said crude oil prices in the fourth quarter and through 2005 could be softer, as demand will not be as strong as they had forecast previously.
The EIA lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the fourth quarter, but again raised its projection for growth during all of 2004, citing sustained high energy prices for the downward revision and strong economic growth for stronger world demand in 2004. It raised its estimate of global demand for the first quarter of 2005 to 84.6m b/d, from 84.5m b/d previously. Citing the mid-$50s prices that front-month WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate
WTI Western Transportation Institute (Montana State University)
WTI World Tribunal on Iraq
WTI With The Idea (used in chess to point to the idea behind a specific move) has seen recently, the statistics arm of the US Department of Energy forecast US oil prices to stay high, holding in the mid-to-high-$40s range through 2005.
Data pointing to stronger heating fuels demand as the northern hemisphere enters the high winter season combined with lower-than-expected US crude oil output in the wake of Hurricane Ivan This article is about the Atlantic hurricane of 2004. For other storms of the same name, see Tropical Storm Ivan (disambiguation).
Hurricane Ivan was the strongest hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. hint at possibly tighter oil markets. The EIA now sees world oil demand of 84.3m b/d in the fourth quarter, down 100,000 b/d from its forecast last month. It forecast WTI prices averaging $51.09/b in the final quarter of 2004, or $20 above the same period a year ago. Nevertheless, the EIA forecasts global oil demand growth to slow to 2.4% in 2005, from the record 3.5% increase expected this year.
The increase in global oil demand is expected at 2.4% in 2005, from the 3.5% seen between 2003 and 2004, as world economic growth slows towards more sustainable rates, influenced in part by high oil prices. Despite the revision, global oil demand is now seen growing by 2.8m b/d to 82.5m b/d for this year, up from a growth of 2.6m b.d forecast last month. The forecast for US fourth-quarter demand was pared to 20.51m b/d from 20.55m b/d from last month, even as demand for distillate dis·til·late
A liquid condensed from vapor in distillation.
a product of distillation. (including heating oil) in the final quarter of the year was revised upwards by 80,000 b/d. It projected US oil demand growth to slow to 1% in 2005 from 2% this year. It lowered its expectations for US crude oil output in the second half of 2004. Third-quarter crude output was revised down 200,000 b/d and fourth-quarter output was revised 400,000 b/d lower. Hurricane Ivan inflicted serious damage on Gulf of Mexico Noun 1. Gulf of Mexico - an arm of the Atlantic to the south of the United States and to the east of Mexico
Golfo de Mexico
Atlantic, Atlantic Ocean - the 2nd largest ocean; separates North and South America on the west from Europe and Africa on the east oil and gas infrastructure, leading to extended outages of a significant amount of US petroleum production. However, some of that production has returned sooner than expected, leading the EIA to forecast that crude oil inventories would end this year at 277m barrels, 7m barrels above the level it forecast last month.
The EIA also reported a 3.2% rise in US refinery runs to 92.6% as plants emerged from seasonal maintenance. Higher refinery runs will increase demand for crude oil as plants look to maximise heating oil supplies for winter.
The IEA on Nov. 11 said in its monthly report world oil prices are likely to soften further in the coming months in response to continued strong output from OPEC OPEC: see Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
in full Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Multinational organization established in 1960 to coordinate the petroleum production and export policies of its and adequate stocks of commercial crude oil in industrial countries. Its forecast for global oil demand was roughly unchanged at 82.4m b/d in 2004 and 83.8m b/d in 2005. Likewise it issued a slight downward revision from its October report to projections in demand growth for 2004 to 2.64m b/d from 2.71m b/d. Noting a recent drop in front-month WTI prices from their Oct. 25 high of $55.67/b, the IEA report asked: "Has the market overshot overshot
see knuckling over.
See brachygnathia. Called also parrot mouth. equilibrium levels In meteorology, the equilibrium level (EL), or level of neutral buoyancy (LNB), is the height at which a rising parcel of air is at a temperature of equal warmth to it. and are we witnessing the beginning of a correction, or are we facing a brief interlude interlude, development in the late 15th cent. of the English medieval morality play. Played between the acts of a long play, the interlude, treating intellectual rather than moral topics, often contained elements of satire or farce. in what some believe will be a relentless upward rise in oil prices?"
OPEC is to avoid changing supply quotas at its Dec. 10 ministerial meeting in Cairo as the organisation seeks to manage volatile oil volatile oil
A rapidly evaporating oil of plant derivation, especially an essential oil, that is capable of distillation and that does not leave a stain. Also called ethereal oil. prices in coming months, according Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil Chakib Khelil (arabic:شكيب خليل) is Algeria's Minister for Energy and Mines.
He was born in Oujda (northern Morocco) on August 8, 1939, received a doctorate in petroleum engineering from Texas A&M University in 1968. . Prices of light/sweet crude oil would hold above $30/b next year as demand would stay strong in China and the US, Khelil told Reuters in an interview published on Nov. 11, adding: "The US economy seems to continue to grow very fast and will help the world economy". OPEC has helped ease prices by raising production quotas three times since July 1 and producing near capacity. He said: "I think the [OPEC] meeting will be more of a meeting of looking back, seeing what has happened, what are the drivers and maybe spending more time looking forward on what may happen". Oil's rally this year has spurred OPEC to produce at more than 30.7m b/d, the highest level in 25 years, gradually helping to rebuild low fuel inventories, and weaken prices on physical spot markets.
Khelil predicted volatile prices in coming months. "We may see a yo-yo type situation. In terms of supply and demand there is no lack of supply, the market is well supplied; however, a lack of spare capacity creates tension in the market. Demand for oil, which has been exceptional this year, will continue [to grow] next year but there will be some seasonal variations. The first quarter will be very strong because of the winter requirements and maybe the second quarter will be much lower".
Khelil opposed raising OPEC's $22-28/b target price band, saying it required a conviction that there was a real structural change in the market. Some OPEC members, led by Venezuela, have pushed for an increase in the band to reflect higher prices. "I don't think we have those types of elements to make that decision at this stage", he said. OPEC could do little more to stabilise Verb 1. stabilise - support or hold steady and make steadfast, with or as if with a brace; "brace your elbows while working on the potter's wheel"
brace, stabilize, steady prices, which depended on the international politics and economic growth in big consumers like the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. and China, he said.