EGYPT - The Rise Of Gamal Mubarak's Technocrats.

"September 2002 could turn out to be a significant month in modern Egyptian history", noted MEED on April 15, 2005, as it was then that Gamal Mubarak, the younger son of the president, was promoted to head the NDP's High Council for Policies). This is a 123-member group of economists, businessmen and academics created to oversee the transformation of the NDP from a state patronage machine run by old-guard party bosses to a modern majority party managed by what MEED called "a clique of savvy technocrats".

At the core of the group are businessmen who share a pragmatic vision of Egypt's political economy which seeks to integrate the country into the global market and to strengthen bilateral ties with Europe and the US. This group has developed a strategy for the wholesale reform of the country's economy based on free market economics. By simplifying the country's complex tax system, Cairo would increase efficiency and bring more locals into the country's formal economy. By cutting customs tariffs and establishing trade agreements, international trade could grow. And an aggressive privatisation programme would reduce the disruptive influence of central government on business as well as reducing the burden of public services from the government balance sheet.

In July 2004, the group completed its rise to power, when a cabinet reshuffle under new reform-minded Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif saw all of the key economic posts filled by the reformers from the Policy Council. Another reshuffle under Nazif on Dec. 31, 2005, brought in a number of additional technocrats. These at present include:

Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali, who had for many years felt the frustration of being in the minority in the cabinet. Dr. Ghali was retained on Dec. 31. Foreign Trade & Industry Minister Rashid Muhammad Rashid, retained on Dec. 31. Investment Minister Mahmoud Mohieldin, retained on Dec. 31. Administrative Development Minister Ahmad Mahmoud Darwish, retained on Dec. 31. Communications & Information Technology Minister Tareq Kamel, retained on Dec. 31. Transport Minister, Muhammad Loutfy Mansour, brought in on Dec. 31 to succeed Issan Sharaf. Tourism Minister Zuhair Garana, brought in on Dec. 31 to replace Ahmad el-Maghrabi. Agriculture & Land Reclamation Minister Amin Ahmad Abaza, brought in on Dec. 31 to replace an old guard. Education Minister Yousry Saber Hussein el-Gamal, brought in on Dec. 31 to replace an old guard. Environmental Affairs Minister Magued George Elias Ghattas, retained on Dec. 31. Health & Population Minister, Hatem Mustafa el-Gabaly, brought in on Dec. 31 to replace an old guard. Higher Education & Scientific Research Minister Hany Mahfouz Hilal, brought in on Dec. 31. Housing, Utilities & Urban Development Minister Ahmad Amin el-Maghrebi, who until Dec. 31 was minister of tourism. International Co-operation Minister Ms Fayza Abul Naga, who on Dec. 31 was retained. Manpower & Immigration Minister Ms A'esha Abdel Ghani, brought in on Dec. 31.

Mubarak still has not appointed a vice president to succeed him. He has not provided a credible explanation for this, saying that in the event of death, the parliament speaker will succeed him as an interim president until the legislature nominates a permanent ruler. Mubarak's predecessor, President Anwar al-Sadat, was assassinated by an Egyptian Islamic militant in October 1981. But Sadat had a vice president, Mubarak, to succeed him.

In June 1995, Egyptian Islamic militants failed in an attempt to assassinate Mubarak during a visit to Addis Ababa for a summit of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU). The attempt raised the sensitive issue of succession. Rumour has it that Mubarak wants his son Gamal, now 43, to succeed him.

The administration of Egypt is in the hands of the Council of Ministers (cabinet), headed by a prime minister appointed by the president. A major cabinet reshuffle took place on in July 2004 when Ahmad Nazif was appointed as prime minister to succeed Dr. Atef Obeid who had headed the council since 1999.

The 454-member legislature consists of a People's Assembly, with 444 elected members and 10 presidential appointees. This body is dominated by President Mubarak's ruling NDP, which has 324 elected members, compared to 328 before last year's elections. President Mubarak controls a total of 334 seats, as the appointed members are his choice.

The National Consultative Council, called Shura, consists of 140 elected members and 70 presidential appointees. The Council is also dominated by Mubarak's NDP and its functions are more advisory than legislative.

The administrative subdivisions of the country consist of 26 governorates. The president appoints the 26 governors.

The political decision makers form a collective elite. The NDP members of parliament, who dominate the assembly, are mostly millionaires and many of them lead prominent business groups. There is a great deal of corruption and nepotism, but Mubarak's regime has made sure to keep the situation under control. Most of the economic decision makers are technocrats, now close to Gamal Mubarak (see DT).