EGYPT - The Dangers Ahead.

Sign of the regime's weakness have begun to appear. Rosemary Hollis, a top Middle East expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, says: "Too much has been set loose. The regime believes people need a strong leadership and will rally behind Mubarak when things get messy. But it may be too late to clamp down and go back to how things were" (see Part 3C - sbme5EgyptCmay2-05).

Analysts suspect that Mubarak's grip on the country might be loosening, or that his regime is showing signs of weakness in the face of domestic and external pressure. Hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood protesters have played cat-and-mouse with police in the heart of Cairo, bringing the city's normally heavy traffic to a standstill for several hours. Police arrested scores of protesters.

The potentially explosive mix in today's Egypt is made worse by high unemployment rates and widespread poverty in a country where many are embittered by their perceived disenfranchisement and may join the street protests to air their own grievances. The fallout from an unstable Egypt would easily travel beyond the country's borders, now that Beirut protesters against domination from Damascus has led to the collapse of almost 30 years of Syrian control over Lebanon.

What goes on in Egypt, the most populous Arab country with 72m people and a close US ally since the mid-1970s, affects regional security. It affects Cairo's role as a key mediator in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and a partner in the US-led war against global terrorism. Another cause for the uncertainty is the possibility of a government crackdown, or even violence, if opposition groups persist with their protests despite signs that authorities' tolerance may be wearing thin.

In a wide crackdown prompted by the protest march in central Cairo on March 27, some 230 members of the Muslim Brotherhood have been arrested. The protest was a sign that the movement has decided to assert itself amid signs that President Mubarak was under pressure to introduce democratic reforms. In theory, the constitutional amendment announced by the autocrat on Feb. 26 paves the way for candidates from officially sanctioned parties to contest presidential elections for the first time next September. But this gesture offers little to the Muslim Brotherhood, a strong influence in much of the Muslim world since its creation in the 1920s, but which has never been legalised.

Some of the Muslim Brotherhood sympathisers just released have shown fresh scars allegedly from electric shocks and beatings by state security agents. The experience has left them in little doubt of the limits on their freedom. Instead the Islamist movement is faced with fresh dilemmas in its struggle for recognition.

Those in the Brotherhood who favour adopting a more confrontational approach appear to have the upper hand. But there have also been signs that they might seek more limited gains should Mubarak be prepared for a deal. The ramifications are not just academic.

Dealing With Islamist Militants: The debate between secularism and Islamism has helped paralyse politics in Egypt for many years. Analysts believe the Muslim Brotherhood's position outside the law has also fed the periodic emergence of more violent fundamentalists, and could do so again. Mubarak, however, is sticking to his guns.

"The law forbids parties based on religion. If you allow them to establish a political party it would undermine democracy", argues Mohamed Kamal, a member of the Political Committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

More open participation by Islamists would undermine the relations which Egypt is pursuing with neighbouring Israel, and put at risk the aid it has been received from the US. Washington gives Cairo about $2 billion a year in civilian and military aid, making Egypt the third-largest recipient of US aid after Israel and Iraq. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood's strength is also partly a result of government policies.

Secular leftists and liberals who might be competing in the same opposition space have ossified under emergency laws in place for the past 24 years. They now have little presence among the population.

The Muslim Brotherhood, on the other hand, has been tolerated as a religious force to varying degrees since the 1970s when Anwar Sadat, then president, gave them leeway to counter leftists in the universities. Under Mubarak they were able to extend their influence while his government focused on crushing a more radical Islamist fringe.

Despite routine repression and turture, such as ones experienced recently by two men sympathising with the Islamist group in Giza, the Muslim Brotherhood now controls professional associations, is influential in universities and its social work consistently shows up the inadequacies of the state. In a free vote it would present an unpredictable challenge to the ruling NDP.

Kamal suggests that, even with the current rules, Muslim Brotherhood candidates could win more seats in parliament by running as independents. What he does not mention is that the times this looked likely in 1995 and 2000 parliamentary elections many Muslim Brotherhood followers were allegedly prevented from voting. They will have a fresh chance in parliamentary elections in November.

The question of how to press their case for legal recognition has put the Muslim Brotherhood in a quandary. One faction has always favoured the gradual indoctrination of society. For them, limited accommodation with the regime may be preferable to anything that jeopardises the foundations they are laying. Another group has embraced democracy and advocates more direct action to win recognition as a political force.

Dr Issam Al-Eryan, a leading Brotherhood member and commentator, has said: "We are not going to create chaos. We will build gradual pressure. The aim is to push the regime to reform, not to change the regime itself". There is also talk of co-ordinating more closely with other opposition forces including leftists, and liberals whose small pro-democracy protests are described by Dr Mohammed Habib, the Muslim Brotherhood's deputy leader as "bubbles in the air trying to break the fear in people".

There is, however, little reason to think the government will back down. Since March 27, 84 members of the Muslim Brotherhood have been remanded in custody. "We have a real dilemma on our hands", says Dr Habib. "We are up against a coercive police regime. We are also working with a population which is passive".

Demonstrations by largely secular and left-wing groups have become commonplace, as have press attacks on the president and his family. But on March 27, with the Muslim Brotherhood set to join the fray, the regime sent a clear signal on the limits of dissent. Starting at dawn, the government arrested many members of the Brotherhood in Cairo and three other cities. Among those was Abdel Meniem Abul-Futuh, a senior Brotherhood official who tried to lead protesters to parliament. A few hundred made it within less than a kilometre of parliament, while about 2,000 gathered in Ramses Square in central Cairo.