EGYPT - The Challenges Of Terrorism - Part 3A.

President Hosni Mubarak, 76, has ruled Egypt for 24 years. Now he seems to be seeking another term in office, although he has not said so as yet and on Feb. 26 he proposed an amendment of the constitution so that more than one person can run for the presidency. His supporters say that, even if other candidates join the race, Mubarak will win as he will bring to any presidential contest the advantage of incumbency: name recognition, access to news media and control of the government bureaucracy, police and the armed forces.

As a republic since the 1952 revolution which overthrew the monarchy, Egypt has had presidents exclusively from the military establishment. Mubarak has no obvious successor. His son Gamal, long expected to take over, denies having any presidential ambitions. And street protests are becoming more widespread and frequent, their chants bolder than anything heard in Egypt in decades.

Egypt has slowly slipped into a state of political uncertainty in recent weeks - a mode which is highly unusual in a country where continuity, or some would say stagnation, has long prevailed: presidents stay in office until they die. Change is not always welcome and security takes precedence over almost everything else (see news13bEgyptDemoMar28-05).

The new climate poses serious risks for a republic which has gone 52 years without a genuine democratic rule and where people have grown accustomed to strong leaders. Fear of authorities, a sentiment constantly reinforced by reports of systematic torture of political detainees and criminals, appears to have somewhat diminished in recent months, at least among opposition supporters emboldened by huge anti-Syria and pro-democracy demonstrations in Beirut.

The most serious opposition in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, a Salafi/Sunni group which is the most organised a numerous among the political parties but which is banned by the state (see its profile and background in Part 3B - sbme4Egypt2MBapr4-05).