EGYPT - Part 3 - Exports; Gas Will Overtake Oil In Revenue.

A net oil importer, Egypt is building up two sets of gas export projects which will eventually become the main external source of revenue. The average of Egyptian exports of crude oil, condensates and petroleum products now is about 295,000 b/d. But because oil production is falling, the 2004 average is expected to drop to about 245,000 b/d, compared to a record of 480,000 b/d in late 1995.

With marketed gas production averaging 3,800 MCF/day and to exceed 6,000 MCF/day by 2015 or before, there will be plenty of gas feedstocks for a rapidly expanding petrochemical industry in Egypt (see Downstream Trends), as well as for export by pipeline and in LNG form (see gas export projects on the following pages & in Gas Market Trends).

Crude oil exports include the share of the state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC) and its foreign partners' cost and equity oils (see profiles of Egypt's oilfields in OMT No. 2). Exports of petroleum products this year could average about 100,000 b/d of heavy fuel oil, up from 40,000 b/d in 1999, and a bit over 50,000 b/d of high-quality distillates produced by the 100,000 b/d Midor refinery near Alexandria which is operating at 80% of its capacity (see DT No. 2).

Imports of crude oil now average about 150,000 b/d, including 80,000 b/d required by the Midor refinery which cannot process Egyptian grades, and should increase in the coming months. This year's imports of petroleum products, mainly LPG, could average about 40,000 b/d. There a loss of about 20,000 b/d of crudes going to the refineries.

Egypt's consumption of petroleum products, including LPG, is limited to 575,000 b/d at present and the government hopes this will not increase in view of the country's shift to natural gas (see DT No. 1). In early 2002, Petroleum Minister Sameh Fahmi complained that oil consumption had risen to more than 600,000 b/d, beyond EGPC's expectations, compared to 440,000 b/d in 1988. There are more than 3.5m vehicles in Egypt, a country with a population of almost 70m, up from 50.5m in 1986.

The conversion of the thermal power plants to natural gas, completed in 2000, has allowed the volume of fuel oil exports to increase. The shift to gas will accelerate further in the coming years, so the volume of oil available for export will not drop considerably from the 2004 level.