EAST AFRICA - Opposition To Middle East Peace Ending - Part 10.

The main Arab countries in the East African region - Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea - have been in turmoil since the end of the cold war. While the situation was not much better during the cold war era, there was an element of stability brought about by the control exercised over leaderships by their superpower mentors. The collapse of Communism quickly changed that, and by the early 1990s it became clear that it would be very hard to reverse the chaotic situation emerging in that area. This evaluation has not changed much since then.

As such, the relevance of these countries to the overall Middle East peace process is limited, if not non-existent especially in the case of Eritrea and Somalia. This does not mean that there is no opposition to the peace process in these two countries. There are numerous small Islamic groups operating in this area, said to be part of the nebulous global radical Islamic network, but such groups essentially do little more than generate rhetoric as far as the peace process is concerned. Most of their actions are local, i.e. to gain advantage against other factions or political groupings. They do, however, broadly support the anti-peace platforms of the major regional Islamic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, etc.

The case of Sudan is somewhat different. The US has been targeting Sudan as one of the "rogue" states in the Middle East. Apart from the issue of Islamic militancy, this is because the 1989 coup in the country replaced a democratically elected and Western educated pro-US prime minister, Sadeq Al Mahdi, who is now living in exile. Sudanese territory was attacked in August 1998 by American Tomahawk missiles after the country was accused of supporting Washington's enemy number one among Islamic militants: Osama Bin Ladin.

At present, the US views Bin Ladin as one of the main figures motivating Islamic groups in their opposition to the US and its regional allies and their policies, with the peace process being a central pillar of these policies. Sudan has been trying over the past year to moderate its image, as President Omar Al Bashir appears to have gained the upper hand in a power struggle with charismatic Islamic leader and parliament Speaker Shaikh Hassan Al Turabi (see following).

In general, however, the various Islamic groups East African region have serious domestic problems to focus upon and do not have much energy to engage in active opposition to the peace process. The most immediate threat is of famine. Nearly 16 million people in the Horn of Africa are currently threatened with starvation, according to the UN.

Ethiopia is the worst affected, with 8 million people facing the risk of starvation, but the other countries in the region as faring badly as well. The number threatened with starvation in Sudan is 1.7 million with 75,000 under immediate risk; Somalia, between 1.2 and 1.5 million people at risk; Eritrea, some 367,000 threatened by drought and food shortages; and even Djibouti is facing the problem with some 100,000 people affected by drought.

Simultaneously, virtually all of the countries in East Africa are facing violent crises of one kind or another, including civil strife or border war. Eritrea is in the middle of a protracted war with neighbouring Ethiopia, which has burdened the country with an increasingly large population of internal refugees. For its part, Ethiopia is facing problems with relief efforts for the famine because of the war.

Ethiopia is also facing instability in the south-east of the country, with frequent reports of banditry and rebel incursions from Somalia and Sudan. In Somalia, factional fighting has continued unabated over the past decade, and repeated efforts at peace by the UN and by regional groups have not been fruitful. Within Sudan, the civil war continues as well and the country has the world's largest population of internally displaced persons. Observers say there is no cause for optimism in the near future, about the situation in any of these states.

Yet because of the nature of the domestic instability and relative chaos, these countries can act as both safe havens for militant groups as well as for their leaders. Such havens can be facilitated by individual warlords or regional leaders who may do it either for immediate financial reasons or for future benefits, in both cases coloured by sympathy for the cause of Islamic brotherhood. It is only to this peripheral extent that the forces in the East African region can have a negative influence on the peace process.

There have been reports in recent years, for example, that several militant leaders on the run from authorities in North African countries as well as from other Arab countries have passed through Somalia as a safe transit and re-organisation point. During the US troop deployment in Somalia from late 1992 to early 1994, fighters loyal to Bin Ladin are said to have moved into to Somalia to fight against American soldiers.