E-Commerce in 2002: Pick a Number Between $35bn and $75bn.

In its latest look at electronic commerce, Merrill Lynch & Co believes that if there is any consensus at all in the market, it is that e-commerce (retail sales) on the internet should be between $35bn and $75bn by 2002, versus about $8bn in 1998 or a growth rate of 34% to 75% per annum. In 1998, total retail sales were $2.7 trillion. It says that other sources estimate that business to business transactions over EDI are already about $250bn annually. It offers three points of reference: "first, in 1998, US GDP  was $8.5 trillion, growing at about 3.25% annually. Second, our analysts forecast overall retail sales growth (store and non- store based) at about 4% annually. Third, our analysts offer an interesting nineteenth century perspective: From 1895 when it first appeared until 1900, Sears Home Catalogue sales grew 68% annually. From 1900 to 1907, sales grew 20.5% annually and from 1907 to 1925, sales grew 10.8% annually."