Due to slow first quarter, growth forecast lowered to 1-2% for 2002. (Casting Market Trends).Recent interviews with casting users indicate most market sectors continued to decline in the first quarter. While housing starts were up in the first three months, housing is expected to decline slightly during '02 as mortgage rates begin to rise. Though production of passenger cars by domestic manufacturers slipped 2%, light truck production was up 5%, resulting in a 2.7% increase in total light vehicle production in the first quarter. Overall, a 3.3% increase in light vehicle production (to 11.4 million vehicles) is projected for 02, with light trucks now representing 53% of the total. Production of medium-to-heavy trucks is expected to increase 4% over '01, though still another bad year for casting suppliers in this market sector. Orders for new railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. freight cars continued to decline in the fourth quarter of '01, reducing backlog to low levels in '02. Deliveries of cars are expected to reach only 19,000 in '02, causing another down year in steel casting Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. shipments to this sector. As a result of reports and interviews, Stratecasts now forecasts total shipments of metal castings Metal casting A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. to rise only slightly during '02, exceeding '01 by 1-2%. On the international scene, weak currency exchange rates in Europe and Asiatic countries continue to cause increases in imports and lowering of exports. Gray Iron Motor Vehicles--While production of light vehicles is strong (with a projected increase of 3.3% over last year), the conversion of blocks and heads to aluminum continues and has dropped the average gray iron weight per vehicle to 250 lb. About 85% of the heads and 30% of the blocks have been converted to aluminum. Most light trucks, however, continue to use iron blocks. Medium-to-heavy truck production, which dropped 30% in '01 to 250,000 units, continued to fall in the first quarter by 20% vs. the first quarter of '01. An increase of 4-5% is still forecast for '02 as inventories continue to decline and demand increases in the third quarter. Machine Tool--After a 30% decline in '01, machine tool consumption fell another 15% in the first quarter. Though a rise in production is forecast for the third quarter, total demand is predicted to drop again for the year, lowering gray iron casting demand to a new low of 80,000 tons. Imports, primarily from China, have accelerated the decline in U.S. shipments despite demand increases. Valves--While imports are increasing and housing starts are expected to decline, the rise in power generation, oil field and petroleum/chemical plant construction should result in slight growth in shipments of valve castings in '02. Diesel Engine--Gray iron demand dropped to a new low in '01 due to the loss of truck/trailer production in the U.S. A first quarter loss followed the 18% drop in gray iron shipments in '01 (to 422,000 tons). Despite the projections for a third quarter pickup Pickup A gain in yield made by selling one bond and buying another. Also referred to as "yield pickup." Notes: When the present yield is relatively low compared to the longer-term yields, pickups will be done by investors trying to increase the yield and duration of their , the forecast was revised downward to 433,000 tons for '02. About 30% of the blocks and heads used in U.S.-made diesel engines are now purchased from foreign foundries. Household Appliances--The conversion to aluminum and plastic continues to keep gray iron shipments down. Despite an increase in appliance demand, this trend should reduce shipments to 60,000 tons in '02. Ductile Iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. Total shipments of ductile iron are expected to increase only 1.1% in '02 as gains in light vehicle consumption are offset by losses in many market sectors. Motor Vehicles--Despite the increase in light truck production, ductile iron has fallen slightly to 185 lb/vehicle due to the conversion of some suspension and differential parts to aluminum. Ductile iron for light vehicles is expected to grow 3.3% this year, while a 3% growth for medium-to-heavy trucks is expected as truck production improves. Pipe--Based on an expected decrease in housing starts, ductile iron pipe shipments are forecast to decrease slightly in '02 to 1.84 million tons, Shipments are expected to rise to 2 million tons by 2004. Special Industry Machinery--Most machinery sectors--including textile, packaging, printing, plastic and papermaking--had a poor year in '01 and are not expected to rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective until late '02 and 2003. The new forecast indicates a growth of only 2% in '02. Farm Machinery--Tractor sales and other farm equipment sales grew in '01, spurring an increase of 5% in casting demand. A loss of 2% in casting shipments is forecast for '02. Steel Low orders and backlog after the first quarter point to another poor year for car deliveries and a lowering of steel casting demand. As a result, consumption of steel castings is forecast to drop in '02. Railroad--It is projected that 19,000 freight cars will be produced in '02, down from 33,000 last year. As a result, steel casting consumption in railroad cars, locomotives This is a list of locomotives (classes, or individual locomotives) that currently have articles in Wikipedia.
Corrosion Resistant Steels-Shipments of corrosion resistant steels are expected to reach 76,000 tons in '02 as valve and pump applications grow, spurred by demand in oil field applications. Aluminum Total aluminum die casting die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. shipments in '02 are forecast to grow 7% over '01 levels, Consumption of aluminum die castings in motor vehicles is expected to reach 712,000 tons in '02 and grow 2.5% annually over the next 10 years. Aluminum permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. and sand casting Casting is the process of production of objects by pouring molten material into a cavity called a mold which is the negative, or mirror image of the object, and allowing it to cool and solidify. shipments are forecast to grow to 853,000 tons this year. This category, which includes permanent molding (low-pressure, semi-permanent and gravity), lost foam and other sand-cast processes is expected to make up 42% of the total aluminum shipments in '02 and grow to 45% in 2006 as automotive block and head production grows. Copper-Base Shipments of brass and bronze plumbing plumbing, piping systems inside buildings for water supply and sewage. The Romans had a highly developed plumbing system; water was brought to Rome by aqueducts and distributed to homes in lead pipes—hence the name plumbing from the Latin word plumbum and industrial valve/fitting castings are expected to grow to 157,000 tons in '02 as a result of industrial valve growth. Total Capacity Reduced Based on the closing and mothballing Mothballing The preservation of a production facility without using it to produce. Machinery in a mothballed facility is kept in working order so that production may be restored quickly if needed. of casting operations, the U.S. casting capacity figure has been reduced by 400,000 tons to 17.2 million tons. The lowest capacity utilization Capacity Utilization measures the rate at which a firm makes use of their capital productive capacities, such as factories and machinery. Capacity Utilization generally rises when the economy is healthy and falls when demand softens. is seen in steel (60%), investment casting investment casting Precision casting for forming metal shapes with minutely precise details. Casting bronze or precious metals typically involves several steps, including forming a mold around the sculptured form; detaching the mold (in two or more sections); coating its and magnesium magnesium (măgnē`zēəm, –zhəm), metallic chemical element; symbol Mg; at. no. 12; at. wt. 24.305; m.p. about 648.8°C;; b.p. about 1,090°C;; sp. gr. 1.738 at 20°C;; valence +2. , while aluminum and copper-base have the highest utilization rates. Due to a continuing shakeout Shakeout A situation in which many investors exit their positions, often at a loss, because of uncertainty or recent bad news circulating around a particular security or industry. Notes: During the dotcom boom and bust, numerous shakeouts occurred. , capacity is expected to be reduced further this year. For a free copy of this article circle No. 341 on the Reader Action Card. This article was adapted from the May 2002 edition of the AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System. AFS - Andrew File System Metalcasting Trends newsletter distributed to AFS Corporate Members.
2001 Casting Shipments and Revised Forecast for 2002
(in Thousands of Tons)
Actual '01 Original Forecast '02 Revised Forecast '02
Gray Iron 5109 5023 5049
Ductile Iron 3996 4080 4039
Steel 1163 1252 991
Aluminum Die 1121 1194 1203
Alum. Sand/PM 789 847 853
Copper-Base 301 303 303
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