Don't stop the presses.

Whatever its shortcomings, there is no overestimating the impact of the gay press on the history of the gay movement. Like the revolutionary pamphleteers of colonial times or the billboardists of China, the gay press has played the role of carriers of vital information and celebrants of an outsider--often outlaw--caste. Today, in an environment of great economic, political and social change, the gay press is redefining its role and trying to anticipate the uncertain future.

When The Advocate launched its modest mimeographed newsletter in 1967, it could not have imagined that in less than two years the Stonewall explosion would change the landscape for gay men and lesbians. Today, in the midst of a still-ungauged technological revolution, it is daunting to peer just a few years into the future, let alone 30.

Let's take a crack at it:

* There will always be a role for the gay press. As mainstream journalism takes on reportage of broad issues, there will still be a demand for community news, calendar information, and in-depth analysis of gay-interest topics the mainstream will not touch.

* The financial future of the gay press depends on its ability to broaden its appeal to mainstream advertisers, who, despite some inroads, are still reluctant to enter gay-specific markets.

* The future is also tied to the fate of the gay civil rights movement. There are likely to be major gains in the next couple of generations, including acceptance of legal protection of gays and approval of gay marriages. At that point gay culture will blend with the larger population, defining a more restricted role for the gay press. Mergers or intercity cooperation of gay news institutions may result.

* On-line and Web technology will play an increasing role in communications but will complement rather than displace printed gay media.

Today's gay publishing industry is something of a mixed picture. National magazines appear to be struggling, with Out and The Advocate commanding the highest circulations and benefiting from mainstream advertising such as Absolut and Subaru. The weekly and biweekly gay press seem surprisingly stable, with exceptions such as the defunct New York Native and San Francisco Sentinel. The Texas Triangle, based in Austin, barely escaped extinction with a deep-pockets buyout.

A dramatic example of faith in the future came in July when William Waybourn and a group of 30 investors purchased the Southern Voice, a profitable 50,000-circulation weekly that serves Atlanta and vicinity. Waybourn--former managing director of the Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation--and his group intend to buy up to ten more gay papers in the South. If successful, his would be the first grouping of gay papers under one ownership.

But the question remains: Will the gay community be a community in 30 years? Kay Longcope, founder of The Texas Triangle, wonders about that. "Gay papers must have community support, which few are receiving," she says. "I see little evidence that people are interested in anything except their own lives ... with only issues from time to time pulling us together. When those issues fade away, I have to ask, Will there be a community at all?"

Dave Mulryan of the gay-focused New York City advertising agency Mulryan/Nash says the answer lies with Generation X, the 20-somethings who came out early and who in 30 years will have been self-identified as gays longer than any previous generation: "Will they feel integrated enough in 2027 not to need The Advocate and others, or will they need gay-identity publications? I think something will survive."

So do I. All one has to do is trace other minority movements to know that progress is cyclical. I remember the optimism we felt in 1964 for the future of race relations, and here we are witnessing regression on every side.

We will no doubt have made great strides toward acceptance by 2027. But unlike, for example, Jews and Italians, who are rapidly being assimilated by the larger culture, our destiny, it seems, is to be a distinct subset of it. Equal, perhaps, yet distinct. We will continue to need our institutions of support. The gay press will be part of that. I hope we're all still around for the fun.

Aarons is founding president of the National Lesbian and Gay Journalists Association.