Development and environment: from Stockholm to Rio.

A comparison of the action plans adopted by the Stockholm and Rio Conferences illustrates a major shift in our understanding of, and approach to, the problems of long-term human development, says the report of the Secretary-General on "Global change and sustainable development - critical trends", issued on 20 January 1997, from which the following is excerpted.

The past 25 years have witnessed major changes in the way the issues of economic growth, human development and environmental protection are approached. Two international conferences serve as landmarks. The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm in 1972, was the first major discussion of environmental issues at the international level. The agenda was immense, touching on virtually all aspects of natural resource use, but the focus (reflecting the concerns of the developed countries which proposed the Conference) was on the threat to the natural environment posed by economic growth and industrial pollution. Developing countries, for whom these problems were still largely irrelevant, argued that poverty posed a greater threat to both human welfare and the environment, and that economic growth in their case was not the problem, but the solution. Stockholm thus marked a polarization between the priorities of economic growth and environmental protection, which has dominated the debate between rich and poor countries, and between interest groups within countries for many years and is still not fully resolved.

During the 1980s, a new political and developmental paradigm emerged which appeared to reconcile these conflicting objectives. In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development published its report, Our Common Future, better known as the Brundtland Report. The report set out the concept of"sustainable development", an integrated approach to policy and decision-making in which environmental protection and long-term economic growth are seen not as incompatible but as complementary, indeed mutually dependent: solving environmental problems requires resources which only economic growth can provide, while economic growth will falter if human health and natural resources are damaged by environmental degradation.

Publication of the Brundtland Report set in motion a process which culminated in the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. A comparison of the action plans produced by the Stockholm and Rio Conferences illustrates a major shift in our understanding of, and approach to, the problems of long-term human development. Where Stockholm adopted an issue-oriented approach to pollution and non-renewable resource depletion, Rio emphasized integrated strategies to promote human development through economic growth, based on sustainable management of the natural resource base. The UNCED action plan - Agenda 21 thus reaffirmed the Brundtland Report's central message: socio-economic development and environmental protection are intimately linked and effective policy-making must tackle them together.

This complex agenda, and the message of policy integration, have become widely accepted in the years since Rio, though integration remains a difficult concept to implement. Policy objectives in key areas can and do conflict and means of reconciling different interests, and achieving acceptable trade-offs remain under-developed. The challenge facing policy makers over the coming years will be to identify critical issues in domestic and international development, and to prioritize measures according to the severity of the problem and the time required for policy to take effect.

To what extent have trends in economic growth, consumption patterns and environmental degradation been influenced by policy intervention? Which policies have proved beneficial and which detrimental? Given the lessons of the past, and the likely shape of things to come (based on the best available projections), what appear to be the most urgent priorities in different regions of the world, and the most promising policy approaches? Any evaluation of trends and the role of policy must take account of the constraints under which Governments operate. The world is becoming increasingly integrated in its commercial and financial activities, while modern means of travel and communications are breaking down many of the traditional physical and cultural barriers between States. National Governments have little control over the forces of globalization and it seems likely that new international bodies or institutional reforms will be required to deal with emerging global issues in the future. However, many of the most pressing developmental and environmental problems are felt at the local or national level. While international action will often be part of the long-term solution, there remains great scope for short- and medium-term policy action at the national level.

An additional and powerful constraint on policy intervention to influence trends is the factor of time: different issues have their natural "pace of change" which becomes apparent when examined over a time span of 50 years or more. Population programmes, by definition, take at least one generation to take effect. Action to combat pollution can sometimes improve local air or surface water quality within a few years. Soil degradation and deforestation may be reversed only after decades of sustained effort, while contamination of groundwater reserves might never be corrected, necessitating the use of permanent and costly purification techniques. For these reasons, most problems of environmental degradation require long-term planning and consistent policy-making over many years. By contrast, economic and social problems may sometimes be remedied relatively quickly through targeted policy measures. Additionally, technologies and social behaviour patterns can change rapidly and, while these areas are not readily susceptible to government direction, they represent powerful agents of change and potential cause for optimism.

Taking stock, moving forward

Looking back over developments of the past 25 years, one clear lesson to be learned from projections made in the 1970s (most famously, in the 1972 report of the Club of Rome, Limits to Growth) is that dogmatic predictions regarding the Earth's future are unreliable and can be politically counter-productive. With hindsight, world developments since then can be characterized as more complicated, more surprising and, generally, more positive than anticipated. Many problems identified in earlier "doom scenarios" persist, but they have not overwhelmed the planet. Some threats - nuclear war, fossil fuel exhaustion - have receded; others - population pressure, industrial pollution - have shown themselves susceptible to determined policy intervention. Less happily, new and unexpected threats have emerged - life-threatening damage to the stratospheric ozone layer, the resurgence of infectious diseases, the rise of AIDS, anticipated changes in the global climate. In sum, while millions of people enjoy lives of safety and comfort unimaginable a few generations ago, hundreds of millions more live in conditions as bad as any endured in the past.

The current outlook is uncertain, but prudent policy-making must involve some anticipation of events and the future is not entirely a black box. We have improved our understanding of the interactions between economic, social and environmental systems and have a greater appreciation of uncertainty and risk management. Forecasting is therefore a less deterministic science than 25 years ago. Scenarios no longer predict; they paint pictures of possible futures and explore the different outcomes that might result if basic assumptions are changed, for example, regarding policy interventions.

Currently, some trends appear positive: the growth in world population is slowing, food production is still rising, the majority of people are living longer and healthier lives, environmental quality in some regions is improving. But it is impossible to ignore other trends which have the potential to undermine these gains or even bring about catastrophic collapse of local economies. They include the growing scarcity of fresh water, loss of productive agricultural land and the downward spiral of impoverishment affecting a significant minority of the world's population. These threats are real and near-term; they already affect millions of people.

The present thus emerges as a time of tension between positive and negative forces, with the balance liable to tip in different directions in different regions of the world. Global catastrophe does not appear to be imminent. But projections cited in this report clearly indicate that pursuit of business-as-usual development patterns is most unlikely to result in sustainable development in the near future. That is, on current trends, we appear unlikely to achieve a desirable balance of economic growth, equitable human development, and healthy, productive ecosystems.

Economic growth remains the primary policy objective in most countries, on the assumption that other desirable objectives - social and environmental improvement - will follow in its wake. Historically, this has been the case in the industrialized countries - given sufficient time and making a major exception for their irreversible losses of natural habitat and biodiversity. These historical economic, social and environmental transitions will not be replayed exactly in developing countries. Today, the pace and scale of change are greater; geopolitical, macroeconomic, geographical and cultural circumstances are different. Some developing countries appear to have weathered a half-century of extraordinarily rapid change and emerged with strong economies and thriving populations. The environmental cost has often been high, but may be repairable over time. A number of poorer developing countries have yet to undergo the transformations which are essential to function in the modern global economy. More critically, some face the prospect of losing much of their natural capital before alternative sources of employment and wealth generation are sufficiently developed.

Assessment of past trends and future prospects in some of these critical issues will help to identify some of the key challenges and options for action, which will confront policy makers over the next decade and more. History shows that many negative trends can be reversed given agreement on clear objectives.

Any review of global change is subject to the problem of conflicting interpretations, even when based on identical data sets. Many trends may be seen as positive or negative according to the perspective of the reviewer and the indicators selected. For example, energy intensity has fallen but consumption has risen, the percentage of people living in poverty has fallen but absolute numbers have grown, per capita emissions of some pollutants have fallen relative to gross domestic product while their total emissions have risen. "Optimistic" or "pessimistic" characterizations of the past and projections of the future are therefore dependent, at least in part, on social and individual perceptions.

Many goals relating to human development and environmental protection that were established during the 1960s and 1970s have been reaffirmed in the international conferences of the 1990s - indicating that they have yet to be achieved. Notable examples include the eradication of poverty, hunger, illiteracy and discrimination, and the protection of certain threatened natural resources, habitats and species. The prospects for achieving more sustainable patterns of development in the coming decades appear mixed.

Trends and projections in a number of key issues are cause for serious concern. The persistence of current trends in a number of critical issues, according to the Conventional Development Scenario and other leading "business-as-usual" projections, will lead to continuing poverty and declining quality of life in some developing regions, especially in urban areas, increasing competition over use rights to natural resources and worsening environmental degradation.

Persistent and growing poverty is undermining socio-economic development in many regions of the world. In some countries, social disaffection fuelled by gross inequity is hindering the ability of Governments to govern and the private sector to conduct business. Social impoverishment is also felt more widely: the financial and quality of life costs to people who, though not poor themselves, live in divided societies, are only now beginning to be measured. Per capita incomes in developing countries are not closing the gap with developed countries in absolute terms; income disparities within countries are also growing.

Population growth and urbanization are often most rapid in low-income developing countries which lack the resources to provide infrastructure and basic social services necessary to promote employment, health and economic growth. Population growth, in combination with rural poverty and insecure land tenure systems, is a factor in deforestation and soil degradation. Urban population growth, from rural-urban migration and natural increase, will place an unprecedented logistical and financial burden on municipal authorities, especially in the least developed countries.

Fossil fuel consumption in industrialized countries is slowly stabilizing, but many polluting emissions continue to rise, especially carbon dioxide emissions responsible for global warming. Rapid economic growth in many developing countries is leading to severe environmental pollution at local and regional levels and poorly quantified damage to human health. Energy consumption is projected to approximately double by 2050.

Rapid and continuous degradation of the natural resource base, on which economic activity and life itself depend, may constitute the most serious of all threats to human well-being in the future. Contamination of fresh water supplies and destruction of productive soil, fisheries and forests reduce the wealth base of countries and thus their prospects for future development. Substitution of lost resources (for example, through food imports or water purification facilities) imposes additional financial burdens on Governments. And declining resource availability, especially in combination with rising population numbers, leads to increased competition, social dislocation and potential conflict. Resource degradation is of greatest consequence in lower-income developing countries which may not have the financial, technological or institutional capacity to reorient their economies to a "natural resource-poor" structure in the timespan available.

Other trends have the potential to bring about more sustainable patterns of development. Against this picture must be set many positive developments, especially the socio-economic progress made in many developing countries over the past 30 years. Many developing regions are undergoing the demographic, economic and social transitions much more rapidly than was the case in the industrialized countries. It may be expected, therefore, that many of the technological, social and environmental improvements that are evident in the mature economies of developed countries will follow, again more rapidly, in developing countries.

Fertility rates are declining more rapidly than anticipated in most world regions. World population projections have been revised downward throughout the 1990s and many developing countries can now plan for a stabilizing population within the next generation or two. High rates of population increase persist in a number of countries, however, and are cause for concern where natural resources (agricultural land, forests, fisheries) are still an important source of national wealth.

Education and health have improved significantly in developing countries, in some cases dramatically. Healthy, educated populations are of prime importance in economic growth and social development, and these improvements, if continued, will be instrumental in creating demand for, and contributing to, more sustainable decision-making in all areas of life. In addition, a number of broader global trends are apparent which, though neutral in themselves, provide a context favourable to the achievement of sustainable development if Governments and societies choose to take advantage of them.

Economic forecasts are positive for most world regions. Many indicators of human welfare in developing countries may be expected to rise in line with income growth as they have done historically. Economic growth will also make available additional resources for environmental clean-up and protection needed to maintain natural capital at adequate levels. Nevertheless, the pace and scale of pollution and resource degradation in some developing countries is such that they are likely to incur very high costs in terms of health care, environmental remediation and substitution of damaged resources. This implies the need for increased investment in pollution prevention measures which, though initially costly, are far cheaper than clean-up.

Technological innovation continues to accelerate, often in response to the implementation of effective policy incentives. Significant improvements in living standards and the efficiency and safety of economic activity could be achieved through more effective deployment of existing technologies. Further decarbonization of the energy supply, increased productivity of agricultural land, and greater efficiency of water and materials use may all be expected with some confidence. The more these processes are accelerated through policy incentives, the greater the social and environmental benefits are likely to be. The potential for more radical economic and social transformation, through entirely new technologies, is unknowable but cannot be dismissed for the longer term.

The spread of democratic institutions and rising levels of education are encouraging greater public participation in decision-making. Community groups and non-governmental organizations in developed and developing countries are demonstrating their ability to manage local problems of resource scarcity or develop successful responses to social and environmental challenges. Such activities augment "social capital" and generate the human ingenuity which, together with technology, is an essential input to problem-solving. Limited government resources are reinforcing this trend, as central Governments in developed and developing countries experiment with partnership arrangements and increased devolvement of government responsibilities to non-governmental actors.

Policy intervention has had a clear and positive effect on a number of trends. The high standards of public health and education in developed countries can be attributed largely to early State provision of water and sanitation services, healthcare systems and universal schooling. The more recent rapid falls in infant, child and maternal mortality rates in most developing countries and the eradication of a number of killer diseases are the result of targeted campaigns organized by national Governments and international agencies. Adult literacy rates in the developing world have also responded to government investment in education.

The slowdown in the rate of the world's population growth has many and complex causes, but government population programmes, involving education, child health care and access to family planning services, have demonstrably contributed to falling fertility rates. The numbers of malnourished people in the world remain high, but would undoubtedly be far higher had it not been for national and international policy commitment to develop and introduce more productive crop varieties and improved agricultural manage. ment techniques. The "Green Revolution" of the 1950s and 1960s was the product of intensive, Government-backed research and development. Industrial pollution of air and water has been dramatically reduced in many developed countries. While part of the decline is accounted for by market-driven technological change, the process has been accelerated by government regulations which have progressively tightened emission standards, technical specifications and ambient quality targets.

But other trends have resisted policy intervention or have barely been tackled. Macroeconomic policies to promote growth and development, and targeted attempts to help the poor, have not succeeded in eradicating poverty, only in slowing its rate of growth. The distribution of the world's wealth has become steadily more inequitable, in part because overtly redistributional policies are so politically sensitive.

The numbers of people without access to basic energy, water and sanitation services continue to rise. Despite major investments, State provision has failed to keep pace with population growth and urbanization. The rate of natural resource degradation is accelerating in many regions of the world. In large measure, this can be attributed to the malign influence of policy: ineffective or preferential land and water use policies, distortionary pricing signals and inappropriate investment decisions.

Common characteristics of these failures include lack of financial resources and institutional capacity in many developing countries, and political unwillingness - in all countries - to reform traditional property rights and fiscal policies. A further factor in the widespread failure to protect land and water resources is the dispersed and incremental nature of damage, which diminishes the perceived impact on the total resource base.

Priority strategies

Policy has a significant role to play in promoting economic development, social equity, stable, educated and healthy populations, well-managed natural resources and a clean environment. These factors are key indicators of what might be termed "successful" transitions and of sustainable development.

Three strategies represent promising policy approaches:

* Increased investment in people, through spending on social services, especially basic education and health care, is essential. In addition to the benefits for gross national product growth, an educated, healthy population strengthens the capacity of society to manage problems and withstand external shocks. The multiple challenges of creating or maintaining economic growth while minimizing damage to the natural environment are too great to be managed by Governments alone. Empowerment of people, through greater political and economic independence and access to information, enables local communities, organizations and business to contribute to effective solutions.

* The encouragement of clean and efficient technologies, through regulatory requirements and economic incentives, serves two key objectives. Efficiency and productivity gains usually represent the quickest and cheapest way to "expand" both non-renewable and renewable resources. Efficient and clean technologies are cost effective and reduce the need for government expenditures. For example, energy saving can reduce the need for oil imports, and pollution control reduces environmental clean-up and health care costs - now reaching billions of dollars in the developed world.

* Pricing reform, which begins to internalize the social and environmental costs of key economic activities, is critical if more sustainable use of natural resources is to be achieved. Current market distortions too often encourage (or force) short-term, wasteful and destructive consumption patterns. The imposition of new taxes and the phase-out of subsidies are fraught with political difficulty; changing incentive structures inevitably creates losers, sometimes among powerful interest groups. The challenge is therefore to experiment with fiscally neutral reforms which bring about change on an incremental basis.

Positive developments are evident in each of these areas, but the pace of change is slow. Investment in human resources is increasing, but tends to lack priority relative to the traditional productive sectors of the economy. Technological efficiency is constantly improving, but innovation and wider deployment must be speeded up in order to have a serious impact on global levels of productivity and pollution-efficiency gains so far this century have been more than offset by the volume of economic growth. Reversing degradation of natural resources will take decades, and delaying necessary reforms will greatly increase the monetary and human costs involved.

The goal of sustainable development should serve, in practice, as a wake-up call: to use and share existing capabilities.

The Global Environment Outlook: Regional Perspective

North America 

* By 1992, United States farmers had reduced soil erosion from cropland by about 1 billion tonnes a year compared to 1982 levels.

* Canada and the United States are the world's two largest exporters of forest products.

* In 1996 in the United States, 728 species were endangered or threatened; in Canada, 254 species were endangered or threatened, and a further 21 species were already nationally or globally extinct.

* North American households use twice as much water as European households, but pay half as much for it.

* 2.4 million rural Americans are badly in need of a source of safe drinking water; 1 million are without piped water at all; and supplies to a further 5.6 million do not meet safe drinking water standards.

* Declining fish stocks have resulted in the collapse of East Coast fisheries, with a devastating impact on people living in the area, especially in the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

* Throughout North America, urban centres are having increasing problems finding sites for new landfills, as a result, campaigns to save resources, encourage recycling and separate wastes have led to stricter rules in some communities.

Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States 

* Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides are largely responsible for the 30-50 per cent of the forests that are damaged or dying in Central and Eastern Europe.

* Europe has added 10 million hectares of protected areas since 1982, but 52 per cent of its fish, 45 per cent of its reptiles, and 42 per cent of its mammals are under threat.

* Groundwater is overexploited near 60 per cent of Europe's industrial and urban centres.

* Some 86 per cent of the coastal ecosystems in Europe west of the Urals are at high or moderate risk from development.

* Europe contributes 36 per cent of world chlorofluorocarbon emissions, 30 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions and 25 per cent of sulphur dioxide emissions; air quality is the top environment priority or countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

* The average European produces 150 to 600 kilograms of municipal waste a year - but this has led to the adoption of alternative methods of waste disposal, cleaner production technologies and more recycling.

West Asia

* West Asia lost 11 per cent of its remaining natural forest during the 1980s.

* The depletion of aquifers on the Western side of the Gulf is leading to the loss of a unique ecosystem of natural freshwater springs.

* Many countries in West Asia suffer from water scarcity, with Bahrain having less than 18 per cent of the minimum threshold; yet, levels of water consumption are now very high, ranging from 300 to 1,500 litres a day per capita.

* Some 1.2 million barrels of oil are spilled into the Persian Gulf annually.

* The region's coastal zone, an invaluable economic resource for development and tourism, is one of the most fragile and endangered ecosystems in the world.

Asia and the Pacific

* Asian timber reserves may last for no more than a further 40 years.

* Rapid growth in energy demand has led to a significant increase in air pollution, and acidification is an emerging problem.

* Patterns of unsustainable use and conflicting policies are causing a continued loss of biodiversity throughout the region.

* Some 70 per cent of the waste discharged into the Pacific receives no treatment.

* The disposal of liquid and solid wastes is increasingly problematic in a region with such high population density.

* The largest portion of the world's land affected by soil degradation is in Asia and the Pacific.

Latin America 

* Five of the 10 most species-rich countries in the world are in Latin America, but biodiversity in the region is highly threatened - with an estimated potential loss of at least 100,000 species from forested areas alone over the next 40 years.

* The rapid growth of tropical deforestation is being slowly reduced as a result of international initiatives and national programmes to abolish the subsidies, tax incentives and special credits that encouraged deforestation.

* Some 47 per cent of the region's grazing lands have lost their soil fertility as a result of erosion, overgrazing, salinization and alkalinization.

* Large quantities of agricultural and other contaminants are discharged to streams that flow into the Caribbean, resulting in pollution from phosphorus, nitrates and pesticides.

* Many Caribbean beaches now have average tar level 10 times higher than those estimated to adversely affect the use of beaches by tourists.

* Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay experience the effects of increased ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion more acutely than any other inhabited region.

Polar Regions: The Arctic and the Antarctic

* Melting of the Greenland ice sheet has made a positive contribution of the sea-level rise of 10-25 cm. observed over the past 100 years.

* Arctic marine resources are extremely productive (partly as a result of 24-hour summer sunlight), but have been threatened by overfishing and sea mammal hunting.

* Forest clearance in the Arctic has altered landscapes and local climate, and reduced biological diversity.

* In 1995, the Arctic contained 285 protected areas covering 2.1 million km.

* In the Southern Ocean of the Antarctic, fishing focuses on krill and fin-fish species, but is generally well below allowable limits.

* If the Antarctic ice sheet melted, it would produce a sea-level rise of at least 60 metres.

* The Antarctic ozone hole is expected to continue for many more decades.

Africa

* Half a billion hectares of African land are moderately to severely degraded.

* African forests are the most depleted of all the tropical regions, with only 30 per cent of historical stands remaining.

* African savannahs are the richest grasslands in the world, supporting many indigenous plants and animals, including the world's greatest concentration of large mammals.

* Africa has 19 of the 25 countries that have the highest percentage of populations without access to drinking water.

* For many countries, particularly in West Africa, fish is the main source of protein.

* Africa is the least urbanized continent, with a 65-per cent rural population.

* Environmental deterioration in Africa is intricately linked with poor economic performance and poverty.