Deusche Banks' Leiderman: Mexico adjusts properly to external shocks.

To forecast economic trends in Latin America, Leonardo Leiderman draws on the global resources of Deutsche Bank, a regional network of high-level policymakers and business leaders, and his own expertise in central banking, derived from inflation targeting in Israel. As a result, the bank's clients benefit from up-to-the-minute research in making investment decisions in the region.

Leiderman, who is head of emerging markets economics and chief economist for Latin America at Deutsche Bank's New York office, will be a featured speaker at Latin Trade's Forecast: Mexico conference Sept. 6 in Mexico City.

Our view of the Mexican economy is very positive." Leiderman says. "We have seen a continuation of long-term capital inflows into Mexico during a period of global gloom. The main item on the agenda now is tax reform. The challenge for Mexico is to approve this reform before the end of the year. Moreover, the economic slowdown in the U.S. and the market turbulence related to Argentina are exerting tremendous pressure on the Mexican economy this year. So far, Mexico gets very high marks on its dealing with these adverse shocks."

Leiderman and his team focus on key political, monetary and economic developments in Latin American nations to identify opportunities and risks. In recent months, Deutsche Bank's Latin America economics group has also been providing a deep analysis of the Andean countries -- Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia - which are attracting attention due to investor concerns about the Southern Cone.

"Investing in emerging markets is a research-intensive activity," he says. The focus is in choosing the right country. The specific financial instrument to be chosen is of secondary importance to the global investor."

For Leiderman, every analysis of a region or country begins with an analysis of the fundamentals: What are the policies that are in place in this country? What are the institutions in this country? How is the budget? What will happen to interest rates and exchange rates? How solvent is the economy?

"Latin America is an important part of our research and our business at Deutsche Bank," he says. "It's a region that has shown tremendous business opportunities, given the major structural changes and reforms over the last decade, but it is also a region that has suffered from numerous crises. If you have the correct reading and the proper analysis of those developments, there can be room for very nice profits in those areas. Our job is to provide that reading and analysis to our clients."

Born in Crdoba, Argentina, Leiderman moved to Israel after high school to accept a fellowship at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, then completed his Ph.D. at the University of Chicago. He is the author of Inflation and Disinflation: The Israeli Experiment, published by the University of Chicago Press, as well as six other books and numerous articles.

With his strong economics background, Leiderman has advised the Central Banks of the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Chile. In his position as head of research at the Central Bank of Israel between 1996 and 2000, Leiderman worked closely with the authorities to enact a major stabilization strategy to reduce inflation in Israel and to introduce budget discipline. As a result, the country's inflation rate has come down to a single-digit level. This method of central bank "inflation targeting" is an approach Leiderman has advised several Latin American countries to transfer to their economies.

Deutsche Bank offers its more than 9 million clients unparalleled financial services throughout the world. It ranks among the global leaders in asset management, capital markets, corporate finance, custody, cash management and private and retail banking. Deutsche Bank has offices in Latin America in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela.