Determination of economics student performance.

Abstract

This study investigates the determination of student performance in the Principles of Economics course. It employs an ordinary least squares regression procedure to ascertain the importance of math ability, classification, major, attendance and grade point average (i.e. GPA) to success in the principles of economics course. Findings suggest that GPA and class attendance are major determinants of course outcomes.

Introduction

The Principles of Economics course is very demanding, requiring students to master and apply abstract concepts to real life situations. In addition, many of these concepts are presented in a mathematical context and require a good command of college algebra and analytical geometry. A number of students find the Principles of Economics class to be quite difficult and are often perplexed as to why they seem to struggle more in this course than in others. This paper is an attempt to determine which factors contribute to student performance in the Principles of Economics course. This study considers the roles played by math ability, grade point average (GPA), attendance, student classification and major in determining performance in the Principles of Economics course. The results herein pertain to the Principles of Economics course taught at a small-size private liberal arts four-year college. It is hoped that the findings from this analysis can be used to provide valuable guidance to students hoping to successfully complete the Principles of Economics class and to teachers of this course wishing to become more effective.

Rationale

One would expect that performance in the Principles of Economics course is influenced by a number of factors including math ability, GPA, attendance, student classification and major. In regards to math ability the relationship would appear to be positive since this course requires and builds upon prior arithmetic skills. Tests in this course were comprised of both multiple-choice questions and problem sets. The problem sets require considerable math comprehension. GPA would seem to capture a number of factors including a student's motivation, effort, and endowed knowledge and skills. A positive relationship between GPA and class performance is expected. Research by Anderson, Benjamin and Fuss, 1994 and by Durden and Ellis, 1995 suggest that math ability and GPA are the most important determinants of course success. A large number of studies have also indicated a direct connection between class attendance and academic performance of students in economics courses (for example, Schmidt, 1983; Park and Kerr, 1990; Romer, 1993; Devadoss and Foltz, 1995; Durden and Ellis, 1995; Dolton et al, 2003; and Kirby and McElroy, 2003). Since lectures add value to the textual material class absences impose a cost. In the case of this particular course, lectures and class exercises deviate somewhat from those in the required text and, as a result, one would expect absences to inflict an even greater penalty. Therefore, a positive relationship between attendance and course performance is expected. [1] Student classification (i.e. freshman, sophomore, junior, or senior) probably influences course performance in the sense that junior and senior students are likely to be more mature and, by assumption, have acquired more study skills. [2] As a consequence, junior and seniors in this course are expected to generally perform better than sophomores. A student's major is the last factor to be considered in this study. Business and Economics majors are expected to perform better than other majors in the Principles of Economics course since they have a declared or implied interest in the subject matter.

Data

The data for this study were collected from a Principles of Economics class taught during the spring semester of 2004. The data were acquired in the following ways. Math ability was assessed at the beginning of the course by a short test while data on student classification and major were garnered from a beginning-of-course questionnaire. [3] GPAs were obtained from the college's registrar's office at the beginning of the semester. In regards to attendance, roll was taken at the beginning of each class period. [4] The student's course averages were calculated from the percentage score of four tests. It is important to keep in mind that for the purposes of this paper class and majors are divided into two broad groups. In the case of class, one is either classified as sophomore or as a non-sophomore (i.e. junior or senior). In the case of major, the two broad groups are business related majors, including economics, and non-business related majors. Records for 62 students were compiled for this study. The typical student had an average course letter grade of C (i.e. 75 percent course average), attended class 82 percent of the time, and had a 3.0/4.0 GPA.

Empirical Results

An ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression with student course grade average--calculated as the average of four tests--being the measure of student performance and the dependent variable. The independent variables were math ability, GPA, class, major, and percentage course attendance. The estimated coefficients on GPA and percentage course attendance were each statistically significant at the one percent level and each had a positive sign, as expected. In other words, the higher the student's GPA the better that student will tend to do in this course and the more often the student comes to class the better that student will tend to do in the course as well. Coefficients for the other independent variables were not significant, suggesting that one's major, classification, and math ability were irrelevant factors in determining performance in the Principles of Economics class. [5] These results taken together suggest that GPA and attendance are the primary factors contributing to student performance in the Principles of Economics course. However, GPA and attendance differ substantially in regards to the level of student control. The GPA is taken as a given when the student enters the course. It cannot be changed. Class attendance, on the other hand, is largely influenced by the actions of the individual. Students have substantial control over the number of absences that they accumulate during the course of the semester, and absences will have a negative influence on course outcomes. In order to investigate the impact that absences have on grades, a set of dummy variables were established for number of absences. The number of absences was arranged into five groups; 0 to 2 absences, 3 to 5 absences, 6 to 8 absences, 9 to 11 absences and greater than 11 absences. These absence groupings replaced the percentage course attendance variable in the original regression. The results of the OLS procedure indicated that the estimated coefficients for GPA and each of the absence dummy variables were significant at the one percent level. Their signs were also as one would expect with GPA having a positive influence on course average and with absences having a negative impact. Moreover, the coefficients on the class absences became increasingly negative as the absences grew, indicating that as the number of absences mount so do their adverse impact on course average. Again, coefficients for the other independent variables were not significant.

The coefficients on the absence dummy variables indicate that course averages will be 11.3 percentage points lower for a student with 3 to 5 absences than it will for students with 0 to 2 absences, it will be 16 percentage points lower for a student with 6 to 8 absences than it will for students with 0 to 2 absences, it will be 24.6 percentage points lower for a student with 9 to 11 absences than it will for students with 0 to 2 absences, and it will be 25.1 percentage points lower for a student with greater than 11 absences than it will for students with 0 to 2 absences. So the major grade penalties are imposed when absences are greater than two and again when absences exceed eight. Using the coefficients from the regression model we can infer that a student with a 3.0 GPA with 0 to 2 class absences during the semester obtains a predicted course average of 84 percent and earns a grade of "B" out of the course. However, if that same student has 3 to 5 absences the predicted average becomes 73 percent and the course grade drops a full letter to "C". The corresponding predicted course averages for the 3.0/4.0 GPA student with 6 to 8, 9 to 11, and greater than 11 absences are 68, 60 and 59 percent, respectively. The implications for students with lesser GPAs are even more severe. For instance, a 2.5/4.0 GPA student with just three absences will achieve a predicted score of 67.5 percent, a failing grade for business and economics majors.

In reality, course averages for this class were calculated in a slightly different manner than that represented by the above exercise. Students were allowed to replace their lowest test score by the score of their final exam if the final exam score was greater than their lowest test grade. [6] By doing this, the final exam could be worth as much as fifty-percent of a student's grade. When course averages are recalculated using the above procedure the results do not change very much. GPA and the dummy absence variables are again significant at the one percent level. GPA has a positive influence on course average while absences have a negative influence. The coefficients for math, class, and major are not significant.

Discussion

It seems almost intuitive that GPA and course attendance would prove to be major factors in the determination of student outcomes in the Principles of Economics course. On the other hand, it is a bit surprising that the coefficients for the independent variables math, class, and major were not significant. However, upon further inspection, some possible explanations for this outcome seem plausible. In the case of math, a grade of "C" or better in Pre-Calculus is required before a student is allowed to take the Principles of Economics course. This prerequisite probably ensures that each student has the necessary math skills required for the Principles of Economics course. As a result, the variation in scores that was found in the administered math test used to determine math ability in this study probably overstates the real differences in regards to the math skills needed in this course. In regards to the independent variable class, forty-three of the sixty-two students who filled out the beginning-of-course questionnaire reported their classification as sophomore. The remaining nineteen students were juniors and seniors. While it is reasonable to expect that juniors and seniors would generally perform better than sophomores, this may not be the case if a significant share of the junior and senior group is comprised of poor economics students. Indeed, nearly half of this group had unsuccessfully taken the Principles of Economics course prior to this class. The course average for non-sophomores was 70 percent, 6 percentage points below that for sophomores. However, when the repeating students are held back from the analysis the average for non-sophomores jump to 80 percent. This observation appears to support the initial hypothesis. Finally, the variable major probably was not significant due to the fact that one's major is typically declared during the student's sophomore year and since Principles of Economics is generally a sophomore year course most students have not been substantially exposed to the subject prior to taking the class. As a result, economics majors and non-majors alike are pretty much on equal footing when they take the course. As a consequence, no systematic difference between economics majors and non-majors probably exists.

Conclusion

The purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants of student outcomes in the Principle of Economics course. The chief finding of the research is that GPA and class attendance are major influencing factors. This is quite instructive for students and teachers alike. For the student, GPA is an endowment that he brings to class and he may have little capacity to immediately effect a significant improvement in this factor. On the other hand, the student has substantial control over attendance and can positively impact his performance just by coming to class. For the instructor, knowing the importance of attendance to success in the Principles of Economics course might spur him to initiate a mandatory class attendance policy. This would undoubtedly increase the students' chances of successfully completing the course. Although this study was conducted on one class of students the conclusions seem to support the findings of earlier studies in regards to GPA and attendance. Nevertheless, the research represents a preliminary step towards a systematic investigation of the determinants of outcomes in the Principle of Economics course. Additional study is needed to determine if the results discovered here can be generalized.

Reference

Andersen, G., Benjamin, H. and Fuss, M., "The Determinants of Success in University Introductory Economics Courses," Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 25, (Spring 1994)

Devadoss, S. and Foltz, J., "Evaluation of Factors Influencing Student Class Attendance and Performance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 78, No. 3, 1996.

Dolton, P., Marcenaro, O., Navarro, L., "The Effective Use of Student Time: A Stochastic Frontier Production Function Case Study," Economics of Education Review, Vol. 22, No. 6, 2003.

Durden, G. C. and Ellis, L. V., "The Effects of Attendance on Student Learning in Principles of Economics," AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 85, No. 2, 1995.

Kirby, A. and McElroy B., "The Effect of Attendance on Grade for First Year Economics Students in University College Cork," The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 34, No. 3, 2003.

Romer, D., "Do Students Go To Class? Should They?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 3, (Summer, 1993)

Park, K. H. and Kerr, P. M., "Determinants of Academic Performance: A Multinomial Logit Approach," Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 21, (Spring 1990)

Schmidt, R., "Who Maximises What? A Study in Student Time Allocation," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 73, 1983.

Endnotes

[1] Students knew from the first day of the course that they would not be penalized by the instructor for class absences.

[2] The Principles of Economics course is generally taken in the student's sophomore year; however, juniors and seniors and an occasional freshman do sign up for the class. This particular class had no freshmen enrolled.

[3] This test was comprised of four problems, one each dealing with long division, taking a percentage, algebra (i.e. solving two equations and with two unknowns) and calculus (i.e. taking the first derivative). The test was weighted towards the algebra and calculus problems.

[4] Tardy students got on the day's roll by reporting to the instructor at the end of the class period.

[5] One concern is multicollinearity among the independent variables, which if present could lead to flawed standard errors and by extension to flawed t-statistics. However, when tested for multicollinearity no problems were detected.

[6] Even though the final exam is weighed equally to the other three exams, it is a harder, more thorough test because it is a comprehensive two-hour exam, while the others are one-hour stand-alone tests.

Morehouse College, GA

Ross, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Division of Economics and Business Administration