Demographer debunks labour shortage myth.

Sudbury -- There is no labour shortage.

So says Dr. David K. Foot, educator, author and keynote speaker at the Oct. 6 Emerging Leaders Conference on succession planning.

The conference, held in Sudbury and attended by over 200 people, was the centre of the all-new day program of the 19th annual Northern Ontario Business Awards. The event was sponsored by Service Canada, Northern Ontario Business, the City of Greater Sudbury, the Sudbury & Manitoulin Workforce Partnerships Board, Northern Life (the sister publication of Northern Ontario Business) and FedNor.

Foot, who holds a doctorate in economics from Harvard University, spoke to the audience about his best-selling Boom, Bust & Echo series and put into perspective population statistics from around the North and around the world over the last century, and how demographics can dictate the direction of the economy.

Numbers count and drive the big picture, despite the ongoing media blitz on labour shortages, he says.

The post-World War II era, in which the population "boom" took place, constitutes the baby boom phenomenon. The introduction of the birth control pill some years later indicates the "bust" period when the birth rate dropped, and the children of the boomers are described as the "echo."

Based on those demographics, and the reality that every year people get a year older (a running joke he used throughout his presentation), he argues the real labour shortage will not occur for another 15 years, because the majority of the boomers are still working.

In fact, Foot says we will go through a labour market surplus to get to the labour market shortage.

"Demographics are about people and people are about employees," he says, relating his studies to the reality of the Canadian labour market and succession planning, which was the theme of the conference.

On the business side, it is helpful to look at the cyclical nature of births, because they tend to dictate the trends in the marketplace and, subsequently, the rise and fall of different types of industries. Simply put, one cannot sell product into an ever-decreasing market population.

"To understand where we are heading into the future, we have to understand the past," he says.

For example, the current demands on our health care system are due to the aging parents (75 to 95 years old) of the boomers, he says.

He also explained the jump in interest rates and inflation that characterized the 1980s. In the '70s, he said, the baby boomers were entering their nesting phase, buying big-ticket items such as cars, homes and education.

So in the years that ensued, people couldn't afford to go out. This drove the mass development of home entertainment products: everything from video games to rental movies to food delivery.

Today, Foot emphasizes there are a lot of young people out there and, as much as Northern cities yearn for more people, now is not the time to raise immigration levels.

"We have to find jobs for our young people, not bring in immigrants to compete with them," he said.

The remark was greeted with dead silence.

He criticized the federal government's decision to increase immigration levels in the early '90s, when unemployment was high while the country slid into a recession. He said it created a pool of overqualified people whose skills were not utilized. Many of them are now returning home angry, their dreams of working in their field of choice in Canada scuttled.

Foot noted governments are notorious for fumbling on immigration policy, but said that by focusing on attracting immigrants in or close to their 30s, more success may result.

"These are the people who have started families," he said. "They want to buy a house, they care about community and education for their kids."

Upon closer examination of the demographics provincially, he said education will become more competitive in the future. For example, eastern Canada had no echo from the baby boomers. Consequently, Foot warned that the post-secondary educational institutions in the eastern provinces have been, and will continue to, aggressively recruit students.

He continued to look at the demographic trends within individual communities in Northern Ontario, which, again drove home the need for community planning with aging populations and an ever-decreasing tax base.

In a world that embraces the global economy and international movement, he discussed global population and the role those numbers will play in the marketplace and with social behaviours.

Reactions to the growing numbers of young people in countries such as Pakistan, Iraq and India, compared to Canada's decreasing numbers was a surprise to some audience members.

Antionette Blunt, a human resources and labour relations consultant for northeastern Ontario, says by putting the numbers in context, it indicates we will have a more culturally diverse world of work for which we must prepare.

"The statistics and demographics between Northern Ontario and countries in the world-all of that has to be part of our business life today because our world is changing," she says.

Self-employed Rachel Proulx, who trains and consults on business strategies, says it was interesting comparing Northern Ontario with the rest of the world. She found the keynote positive and added that Foot spoke on a topic people want to talk about.

"They want to talk about market strategy and this is right on the money."

In the workshop that followed his address, Foot pointed out the changes of the movements of people within the workforce of today.

He described career paths as more lateral, compared to the linear career path boomers lived out in a single company.

"There is a more lateral mixing of occupations," he says. "The linear career path is dead in the water."

He added women who tend to be more lateral thinkers are succeeding very well in this new era. Statistics indicating that more females complete high school than males (who are experiencing a rising dropout rate) confirms this theory.

The conference ended with a panel discussion with successful Sudbury business people who told their stories about how their businesses developed. The discussion was facilitated by Michael Atkins, president of the Laurentian Media Group and Northern Ontario Business. The panelists were Karen Lacasse (Lacasse Fine Wood Products); Meredith Morris (Sudbury Hyundai); Ron Arnold (Dalron Construction); Darlene Naponse (Pine Needle Blankets Productions); Marc Boudreau (BESTECH); and Maurissa Grano (Creative Odyssey).

Knowing the markets and anticipating the trends played a role in the successes of the panel members' businesses, they said.

"It is an easier ride if you look at the demographics," Foot added.

Equally important is hiring the right people.

"Common sense isn't as common as we think it is, and if you've got the right people and you have common sense, you will do well."

By ADELLE LARMOUR

Northern Ontario Business