Demand Decline to Continue.The 2001 AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System. AFS - Andrew File System Metalcasting Forecast & Trends predicted a general downturn Downturn The transition point between a rising, expanding economy to a falling, contracting one. downturn A decline in security prices or economic activity following a period of rising or stable prices or activity. in 2001 followed by an expansion in '02 and '03. Continued surveillance of the marketplace in the first quarter confirms the original forecast of an inventory correction, and indicates an overall contraction contraction, in physics contraction, in physics: see expansion. contraction, in grammar contraction, in writing: see abbreviation. contraction - reduction of casting sales, including a severe downturn in many market sectors. Motor vehicle production in the U.S. in the first quarter continued to decline with a decrease in passenger car and light truck production of 18.2%, as compared to the first quarter of '00. Based on an expected increase in demand in the second half of the year, the forecast now calls for total light vehicle production to be 11.3 million for the entire year. This would be the lowest production in the U.S. since '93, but only slightly below '96. Light vehicle production is forecast to decline 1.15 million units from last year's levels. First-quarter housing starts were up 2.5% over the previous two quarters. For '01, the housing sector is forecast to decline 2%. The continued lowering of rates, however, could spur housing starts in the third quarter and push this sector past last year's totals. Fourth-quarter railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. freight car orders were down significantly from last year, and a 48,000-car year is now expected. Imports (especially from China) continue to increase, causing declines in some market sectors, despite increases in demand. An effort to quantify Quantify - A performance analysis tool from Pure Software. imports more accurately in specific markets is now under way. Gray Iron The original forecast for shipments of gray iron castings has been reduced slightly, reflecting the greater-than-expected decline in the first quarter. The expected loss in shipments is now estimated at 8.9% for the year, with forecasted shipments dropping to 5.1 million tons (Transparent Optical Networking Services) A marketing term for providing dark fiber to a customer. The customer is responsible for generating the transmission signal and interpreting it at the other end. See dark fiber. . Only the oil field, farm and mining machinery markets are showing growth from '00. Motor Vehicles--First-quarter production of passenger cars was 15.6% below the same period a year ago. Light truck production fell 21.4% in the same period, while medium to heavy truck and trailer In communications, a code or set of codes that make up the last part of a transmitted message. See trailer label. shipments declined 25%. Based on the expected upturn in the latter quarters, the forecast for the year represents a decline of 10% in light vehicle production in the U.S. and a 19% drop in the production of medium-to-heavy trucks and trailers. The conversion of gray iron blocks continues at a slow pace and is not expected to accelerate until '02. Last year, 23.5% of the engines used in North American-made cars contained aluminum blocks, while 73% contained aluminum heads. Municipal Castings--Housing starts increased slightly in the first quarter, but are forecast to drop 2% unless lower interest rates spur sales in the second half of the year. A 2.6% loss to 485,000 tons is expected this year. Machine Tool and Metalworking Machinery--Though machine tool consumption in the U.S. was up 0.8% last year, gray iron shipments decreased 3% because of imports. Shipments are expected to drop another 2% in '01. Internal Combustion combustion, rapid chemical reaction of two or more substances with a characteristic liberation of heat and light; it is commonly called burning. The burning of a fuel (e.g., wood, coal, oil, or natural gas) in air is a familiar example of combustion. Engines--An 11% decrease in gray iron casting shipments is forecast for '01 because of the decline in medium-to-heavy truck production and the rise in imported blocks and heads. Valves and Fittings--The expected drop in housing starts, coupled with increases in imports, could cause another decrease in shipments of gray iron castings. A 5% decline is forecast for 2001. Ductile Iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis[1]. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. Total shipments of ductile iron castings are forecast to decrease 6% to 4 million tons this year. Oil field and farm machinery are the only markets expecting growth from last year's levels. Pressure Pipe--Based on the predicted decrease in housing starts and possible loss of some exports, pipe production is expected to decline slightly to 1.81 million tons in '01. Motor Vehicle--The drop of light truck production in the first quarter, combined with the losses of passenger car applications to light metals (Chem.) the metallic elements of the alkali and alkaline earth groups, as sodium, lithium, calcium, magnesium, etc.; also, sometimes, the metals of the earths, as aluminium. See also: Metal , could signify sig·ni·fy v. sig·ni·fied, sig·ni·fy·ing, sig·ni·fies v.tr. 1. To denote; mean. 2. To make known, as with a sign or word: signify one's intent. a drop in the weight of ductile iron per vehicle from its current high of 190 to 180 lb in '01. A loss of 10% in ductile iron consumption in light vehicles is forecast for 2001. Farm Machinery & Equipment--The expected increase in tractor tractor, in agriculture, vehicle used to pull such equipment as plows, cultivators, and mowers; to power stationary devices such as saws and winches; and to push snowplows and earth-moving implements. production this year could spur a minor increase in ductile iron casting shipments in this market sector to 106,000 tons. Construction Machinery-Though construction spending Construction Spending An economic indicator that measures the amount of spending towards new construction. Released monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, it looks at residential and non-residential construction in the private sector, and state and federal at was up slightly from the same period last year, a slight decrease is expected this year based on a decrease in the public sector. Ductile iron casting consumption is forecast to drop 2% to 186,000 tons. Special Industry Machinery--The consumption of ductile iron in special industry machinery is forecast to decline 3.2% to 90,000 tons in '01 based on a downturn in manufacturing and drop in investment in the U.S. Steel Total steel casting Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. shipments are expected to decline 6.8% to 1.266 million tons, despite strength in some market sectors. Railroad-Orders of freight cars dropped 40% to 8500 in the last quarter of '00, the lowest in recent years. The forecast for a 10% decline in deliveries in '01 to follow last year's 23.6% decrease could be slightly conservative. Therefore, the forecast has been revised from the original 55,000 cars to 48,000 cars, dropping steel casting shipments to 550,000 tons. Construction, Mining, Oil Field--A relatively strong first quarter in construction and the increases in the manufacture of oil field and mining machinery are forecast to increase steel casting consumption in these market sectors to 363,000 tons in '01. Corrosion-Resistant Adj. 1. corrosion-resistant - impervious to corrosion; "he was a great believer in the corrosion-resistant qualities of cast iron" imperviable, impervious - not admitting of passage or capable of being affected; "a material impervious to water"; "someone impervious Steel--The expected decline in valve shipments in '01 is expected to affect the consumption of corrosion-resistant steels and cause a decline of 1.3% in '01. Aluminum Aluminum castings produced by the die, permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. and sand casting Casting is the process of production of objects by pouring molten material into a cavity called a mold which is the negative, or mirror image of the object, and allowing it to cool and solidify. processes are expected to decline with the overall economy in 2001 to 1.95 million tons, a 7% drop from the '00 peak. The major decline is forecast in the motor vehicle market sector, with declines of 6.2% and 7.4%, for sand/permanent mold and die castings die casting Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. , respectively. The sole area showing growth is die castings for the 30,000-ton marine application sector, at 6.6%. Brass & Bronze Shipments of brass and bronze valve castings are expected to fall 6.8% in '01. Specifically, an 8% dropoff in industrial valve and plumbing plumbing, piping systems inside buildings for water supply and sewage. The Romans had a highly developed plumbing system; water was brought to Rome by aqueducts and distributed to homes in lead pipes—hence the name plumbing from the Latin word plumbum fittings is forecast from last year's totals.
Thousands of Tons
2000 Original Adjusted
Actual Forecast '01 Forecast '01
Total Gray Iron * 5697 5362 5198
Total Ductile Iron 4314 4099 4061
Total Steel 1358 1320 1266
Die Cast Aluminum 1235 1180 1158
Sand/PM Aluminum 852 820 791
Copper-Base 317 300 297
Other ** 838 755 734
Totals 14,611 13,836 13,505
(*)includes compacted graphite iron
(**)includes zinc, lead, magnesium, other nonferrous and investment
castings
The industry's capacity utilization
is expected to decline to 77%
in 2001 (based on two-shift calculation).
Metal Capacity (000) tons % Utilization
Iron 12300 76
Steel 1800 72
Aluminum 2420 81
Copper Base 380 78
Magnesium 100 81
Zinc 400 74
Other Nonferrous 55 84
Investment Casting 200 74
Total 17,655 77
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