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Defensive moves: uncertain times call for a diversified portfolio that reduces risk.


Dawn Alston Paige has a clear-cut philosophy for managing assets in uncertain times: go on the defensive. The co-founder of Durham, North Carolina-based Piedmont Investment Advisors which manages $1 billion in assets, has developed a diverse portfolio of five stocks that yet poses little risk to investors. She favors large and small companies with solid earnings potential across a broad range of industries--stocks--she believes that should fare well in an unpredictable market.

Paige's fist pick Office Depot (NYSE NYSE

See: New York Stock Exchange
: ODP ODP - Open Distributed Processing ), a leading seller of office products. The chain's new CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board.  is Steve Odland, the former CEO of AutoZone, the largest retailer of auto parts and accessories. "We think he is responsible for turning that company around," says Paige, who expects the same performance at Office Depot. "He's employing a 'good,' 'better,' 'best' pricing strategy that's going to bring ODP's operating margins up to operating norms and then increase their operating margin points over the next two to three years." With nearly $15 billion in sales, the company is trading at $39.54; Paige expects the remodeled stock to reach a target price of $50.

She also likes Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ NASDAQ
 in full National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations

U.S. market for over-the-counter securities. Established in 1971 by the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), NASDAQ is an automated quotation system that reports on
: AMGN), the biotech giant with $12.4 billion in sales. Amgen's medicines target cancer, blood disorders blood disorders,
n.pl hematologic dyscrasias that affect the component cells and plasma elements of the blood. They are generally divided into two broad groups: those in which an increase in bulk occurs (e.g.
, and inflammatory diseases. Anti-anemia drugs account for nearly 30% of the company's revenues. "This biotech has solid growth across their pipeline of products," she says. "And their anemia drag Aranesp appears to be gaining market share." Palge expects a healthy rise over the next 12 to 18 months, from its current price of $71.22 to $85 a share.

One of her riskier picks is St. Peters, Missouri-based MEMC MEMC Mission Essential Minor Construction
MEMC Mount Elizabeth Medical Centre (Singapore)
MEMC Mitchell Electric Membership Corporation (Georgia)
MEMC Monsanto Electronic Materials Company, Inc.
 Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR WFR Wilderness First Responder
WFR Wafer
WFR Wizard's First Rule (Terry Goodkind book)
WFR Work Force Reduction
WFR Waiting For Reply
WFR Worcestershire and Foresters Regiment
WFR With Fried Rice
). The $1.1 billion company--which has a current share price of $37.95--supplies silicon wafers to many of the world's leading semiconductor makers and offers considerable growth prospects and pricing power Pricing Power

An economic term referring to the effect that a change in a firm's product price has on the quantity demanded of that product. Pricing power ties in with the "Price Elasticity of Demand.
. "A segment of the business is the refining and sale of poly-silicon. There is a shortage of this particular component used in the cells of solar panels. As alternative energy products gain share, this company and its products should continue to benefit." Paige says solar panels, already in great demand in Europe, will come into greater demand in this country. She targets a price of $50.

Another pick is Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM FNM Faith No More (band)
FNM Fábrica Nacional de Motores (Brazilian truck/motor company))

FNM Free National Movement (Bahamas)
FNM Foot and Mouth ), a financial company that serves the home mortgage industry in the U.S. Despite recent regulatory investigations, Fannie Mae has a current share price of $54.94. The company is now working to restate its earnings for 2002-2003. At the very least, Fannie Mae is expected to reinstate its dividend distribution to shareholders--a move that should bring in a new class of investors. With a "buy" rating and $70 price target, Paige says Fannie Mae "is a good contrarian play."

She also favors Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO VLO Valero Energy (stock symbol)
VLO Very Low Observable
VLO Landing Gear Operation Speed (aviation)
VLO Ventro-lateral orbital (area of the brain) 
), the country's largest independent oil refiner. This $80 billion company converts low-cost residual oil and heavy crude oil Heavy crude oil or Extra Heavy oil is any type of crude oil which does not flow easily. It is a relative term, compared to light crude oil, but relates to specific technical issues of its own on production, transportation, and refining.  into cleaner-burning, higher-margin energy products. With 18 refineries producing 3.3 million barrels per day Barrels per day (abbreviated BPD, bbl/d, bpd, bd or b/d) is a measurement used to describe the amount of crude oil (measured in barrels) produced or consumed by an entity in one day. , Valero's stock currently trades at $48.15. Paige predicts the price will hit $80 over the next 12 months. "Most new oil finds are sour crude, which Valero processes in a more efficient manner. That gives them a unique competitive edge."
                             12- to 18-     P/E on          Est. 5-Yr
Company                      Month          Projected       Annual EPS
Exchange: Symbol   Price *   Price Target   2006 Earnings   Growth Rate

Office Depot       $39.54    $50            40.2            1.0%
(NYSE: ODP)

Amgen Inc.         $71.22    $85            29.6            2.29
(Nasdaq: AMGN)

MEMC Electronic    $37.95    $50            18.1            1.70
Materials (NYSE:
WFR)

Fannie Mae         $54.94    $70            N/A             N/A
(NYSE: FNM)

Valero Energy      $48.15    $80            7.0             7.8
Corp.
(NYSE: VLO)

Company            Why Stock Will Outperform
Exchange: Symbol

Office Depot       The new CEO has a successful history
(NYSE: ODP)        of revitalizing companies.

Amgen Inc.         The company's growth and market share
(Nasdaq: AMGN)     are increasing impressively.

MEMC Electronic    This tech supplier is expanding into the
Materials (NYSE:   alternative energy industry, concentrating
WFR)               on solar energy.

Fannie Mae         Investors will appreciate the financial
(NYSE: FNM)        services  firm's reinstated dividend.

Valero Energy      Valero is the leader in oil refining and they
Corp.              do it inexpensively-lower oil and gas
(NYSE: VLO)        prices are en route.

* AS OF SEPT. 25, 2006 SOURCE DAWN ALSTON PAGE, YAHOO!  FINANCE,
ETRADE.
COPYRIGHT 2006 Earl G. Graves Publishing Co., Inc.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
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Title Annotation:STOCK PICKS
Author:Reynolds, Rhonda
Publication:Black Enterprise
Date:Dec 1, 2006
Words:725
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