Decision Analyst's Economic Index Shows First Quarter Stagnation; March's U.S. Index Value Remains Low; Confidence In Stocks Offset By Consumer Uncertainties.Business Editors ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 7, 2003 Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic Index remained depressed in March, completing a first quarter marked by little evidence of impending im·pend intr.v. im·pend·ed, im·pend·ing, im·pends 1. To be about to occur: Her retirement is impending. 2. recovery. The Index (calculated from a nationwide, online survey conducted during the last 10 days of each month) inched up by just one point from the February value, coming in at the low level of 106. Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for the Past 13 Months
2002 March 115
April 111
May 112
June 111
July 108
August 111
September 109
October 109
November 111
December 108
2003 January 105
February 105
March 106
"The slight increase in the Index indicated by the March data cannot hide the overall stagnation Stagnation A period of little or no growth in the economy. Economic growth of less than 2-3% is considered stagnation. Sometimes used to describe low trading volume or inactive trading in securities. Notes: A good example of stagnation was the U.S. economy in the 1970s. afflicting af·flict tr.v. af·flict·ed, af·flict·ing, af·flicts To inflict grievous physical or mental suffering on. [Middle English afflighten, from afflight, the economy," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board. of Decision Analyst, an international marketing research and marketing consulting firm Noun 1. consulting firm - a firm of experts providing professional advice to an organization for a fee consulting company business firm, firm, house - the members of a business organization that owns or operates one or more establishments; "he worked for a . "A glance at the Index values since the beginning of the year shows the economy is really just standing still on the verge On the Verge (or The Geography of Yearning) is a play written by Eric Overmyer. It makes extensive use of esoteric language and pop culture references from the late nineteenth century to 1955. of recession. Given the uncertainties of a nation at war, that's perhaps little surprise." Those uncertainties show strong signs of impacting the ordinary American on the street, with consumer purchasing intent diving to its lowest level (97 points) since December 2001 and confidence in employment status hitting its lowest level since the Index was first launched by Decision Analyst in 1999. "The average American is clearly worried by the international situation and the unknowns posed by the war, and this uncertainty is reflected in reduced intentions to make major purchases," Thomas says Thomas Say (June 27, 1787 – October 10, 1834) was an American naturalist, entomologist, malacologist and carcinologist. He was a taxonomist and is often considered to be the founder of descriptive entomology in the United States and one of the founding fathers of the . "What's surprising about the data is that confidence in the stock market, which is traditionally unsettled by war, rose strongly last month (up 30% (to111 from 86) over February). That may be nothing more than a reflection of the belief that, after the prolonged fall in stock values suffered over the last 18 months, the market has nowhere to go but up." Methodology: The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model Econometric models are used by economists to find standard relationships among aspects of the macroeconomy and use those relationships to predict the effects of certain events (like government policies) on inflation, unemployment, growth, etc. . The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, and Australia. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction An economic contraction is a reduction in goods and services for sale in the market place. Typically it relates to a downturn in production caused by external factors such as weather or a decline in exports, or by such internal factors as taxes, regulatory constraints or other . These guidelines vary by country, however. About Decision Analyst Decision Analyst Inc. is a leading international marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For more information, visit www.decisionanalyst.com. |
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