Decision Analyst's Economic Index Held Back By Lack of Consumer Confidence; High-Dollar Purchases Being Shunned By Cautious Consumers.

Business Editors

ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 1, 2003

Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic Index remains unable to break out on the upside, according to new July figures. The Index (calculated from a nationwide, online survey conducted during the last 10 days of each month) edged down slightly in July, falling to 108 points. The Index has remained bogged down between 108 and 109 for four months now.

Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for the Past 13 Months
2002          July                   108
              August                 111
              September              109
              October                109
              November               111
              December               108
2003          January                105
              February               105
              March                  106
              April                  109
              May                    108
              June                   109
              July                   108

"The economy is struggling to make the move towards higher growth that we are still expecting for later in the year," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and marketing consulting firm. "The economy continues to grow at a slow pace, and, although the second quarter showed improvement over the first, the rapid growth needed for job creation is not yet here."

Among the categories that produce the overall Economic Index, most showed little change. However, a worrying trend is the falling purchase intent of consumers. The consumer purchase plans (covering a range of high-ticket items such as cars and trucks, vacations and houses) fell to a scaled value of 100, down from 105 in June. The fall is the third consecutive decline in a row, an 11 percent decline since April.

"Falling consumer purchase intent is troubling," Thomas says. "It's indicative of the number of uncertainties dominating the headlines right now. The international situation remains volatile, with the ongoing problems in Iraq, the Middle East, and now Liberia. In addition, there's little sign of the job market improving, and gas prices are edging up as well. We still think growth will accelerate in the second half of the year, but the rate of that acceleration is becoming debatable."

Methodology: The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst, Inc. (www.decisionanalyst.com) is a leading marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. The firm delivers competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, high technology, medical and pharmaceutical, utilities, and e-commerce industries. Decision Analyst operates American Consumer Opinion(R) Online, one of the world's largest Internet consumer opinion panels, with more than 3.5 million participants.