Decision Analyst's Economic Index Continues To Signal Sluggish Growth; U.S. Index Value For May Shows Few Signs Of Imminent Recovery.

Business Editors

ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 6, 2003

Decision Analyst, Inc.'s U.S. Economic Index shows confidence remains stuck well short of recovery levels in May. The Index (calculated from a nationwide, online survey conducted during the last 10 days of each month) was little changed from the April value, falling back slightly to 108 points.

Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for the Past 13 Months

2002          May                112
              June               111
              July               108
              August             111
              September          109
              October            109
              November           111
              December           108
2003          January            105
              February           105
              March              106
              April              109
              May                108

"The failure of the Index in May to build on the April increase shows just how fragile the economy is right now," said Jerry W. Thomas, President and CEO of Decision Analyst, an international marketing research and marketing consulting firm. "The positive impact provided by the successful conclusion of the Iraq war appears to have evaporated and attention has returned to the weaknesses in the economic fundamentals."

Among the categories that produce the overall Economic Index, the biggest change was for confidence in the stock market where optimism, after two consecutive months of increasing confidence in the markets' growth potential, fell back to 116 (on its own weighted scale) from April's 126 (although it remains well above the February 2003 low of 86 points). The one positive indicator was a rise in employment status, which recovered to 154 after two months stuck below 150 (147 in March and 148 last month).

"Uncertainty seems to be the overriding mood at the current time," Thomas says. "The international picture remains volatile, especially in the Middle East, and domestic terror alerts have done little to calm the public. In addition, most of the economic fundamentals remain as depressed now as they have been all year. There's little sign of the job market improving, and month-to-month business activity is sagging. Nevertheless, we still expect the economy to keep inching forward, with some acceleration in growth later this year."

Methodology: The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly Internet survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month, and the Index is immediately calculated from nine different economic measurements, using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of current U.S. economic activity, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers. Decision Analyst also conducts concurrent economic surveys in Canada, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Mexico and Australia. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 100 to 110 suggests a stagnant economy, and below 100 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst, Inc. is a leading international marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For more information, visit www.decisionanalyst.com.