Debut of new boeing jet design may be too late for practicality. (Media & Technology).

In the next few months Boeing Co. says it will reveal the aircraft design on which it's staking its future. Whatever aircraft Boeing chooses, it's likely to raise eyebrows.

If the world's biggest maker of airplanes decides to build its proposed high-speed "Sonic Cruiser," which can fly 20 percent faster than conventional passenger aircraft, the airline industry will be surprised because there haven't been any firm orders for Sonic Cruisers.

Financially ailing airlines worldwide have been telling Boeing that the world has changed since the Sonic Cruiser's design was unveiled in March 2001, just a year after the Nasdaq index reached its all-time high.

Then airline executives at least were willing to entertain the idea of a faster airplane. They hoped the new aircraft, flying close to the speed of sound, might enable them one day to charge premium prices for super-speedy flights, such as coast-to-coast in 45 minutes less time than it takes today. No doubt the target market included dot-com millionaires and their investment bankers.

After Sept. 11, expanded security precautions and other inconveniences made travel a longer, more tedious process, irrespective of air speed. A soft economy, moreover, put travelers in a mood to save money with fewer trips and bargain tickets.

Through October, miles flown by paying passengers on U.S. air carriers were down 4.7 percent from 2001, according to the Air Transport Association. The number of seats available, a measure of capacity, was down 7.1 percent from 2001 as airlines mothballed or sold aircraft.

A changed world

"The incremental value to airlines and passengers for saving time was based on a different kind of travel experience than we have today," said Craig Martin, a Boeing spokesman.

The world has changed for Boeing as well. Next year, for the first time, Airbus SAS--the European aerospace company--is expected to pass Boeing in deliveries. Airbus already has roughly 100 orders for its next generation top-of-the-line airliner, the 550-seat A380.

In October, Airbus SAS won a major battle when EasyJet PLC, Europe's No. 1 no-frills airline, chose its A319 over Boeing's 737 for a 120-plane order worth as much as $6 billion. Boeing last month said it would cut 5,000 more jobs--in addition to 30,000 it cut after Sept. 11--because of the slowdown in commercial jet sales. Boeing expects airline deliveries to fall to as few as 275 next year from 380 this year and 527 in 2001.

Airbus' commitment to build the A380, the biggest airliner ever, reflects that company's view of how travel will evolve over the next few decades. With airlines committed to operating as they do today--with most of their flights from major airports and no new airports under construction--Airbus believes the best way to increase passenger traffic is with a bigger plane.

If Airbus is right, it could overtake Boeing as the world's dominant aerospace company, at least for commercial airliners. Boeing, by contrast, believes the current system is beginning to unravel. Carriers like Southwest and EasyJet are proving that more travel to smaller airports is feasible. So, in Boeing's view, bigger carriers could use smaller jets traveling longer distances to increase traffic.

Thus, Boeing may opt to use the technologies it had planned for the Sonic Cruiser instead to introduce a 250-seat, two-aisle jet with 20 percent lower operating costs than those of today. Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group, an aerospace consultancy in Fairfax, Va., estimated Boeing would have to invest $10 billion to develop the Sonic Cruiser, $4 billion for the slower, cost-saving alternative.

A small group of Boeing engineers is proposing yet a third alternative. This group favors an innovative, radical-looking blended-wing body--a flying wing unlike anything ever used in commercial aircraft. One big wing needs less power to lift, so it would be cheaper to operate.

For the record, Boeing acknowledges its engineers are studying the design for military applications, such as flying tankers, but not for passengers. "Boeing's problem isn't that they lack strategic direction," Aboulafia said. "It's that they show no sign of funding new commercial designs." He predicts Boeing will defer new aircraft designs for at least five years.

By riding out the latest decline in air traffic and airlines' financial results, Boeing believes it can save money until it's sure what customers will buy, Aboulafia said.