Dean's surprising surge.

Byline: The Register-Guard

While the nation's citizens - or at least those citizens paying attention - are being entertained, or appalled, by the vaudeville of California's gubernatorial recall election, another, far more serious, political contest will kick off tonight. That's when the nine Democratic presidential candidates will hold their first nationally televised debate.

The debate comes just as momentum is building behind the campaign of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. In the most recent poll, Dean held a 36 percent to 17 percent lead over U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. in New Hampshire, site of next year's first presidential primary. Dean is also leading in Iowa, scene of the first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, among Democrats who have tuned in to the presidential race.

Granted, it's early in the campaign season and the series of televised debates beginning tonight could easily rearrange the numbers. But it's noteworthy that the Democrats' most outspoken opponent of the war in Iraq - Dean - is now leading the pack.

How Dean's anti-war stance would play out should he win the nomination and be squared off against President Bush is anybody's guess. A majority of Americans continue to support the war, although that could change as American casualties mount and the costs of post-war reconstruction continue to soar.

Contributing to Dean's current popularity is his blunt, outspoken style, which reinforces his outsider status. He has raised more money - by far - than any other Democratic contender, mostly through the Internet. And while most of the Democratic contenders are becoming more critical of Bush's handling of the war and its aftermath, it was Dean all along who forthrightly challenged the president's decision to invade Iraq.

The other contenders - Sens. Kerry, John Edwards of North Carolina, Bob Graham of Florida and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Reps. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, former Sen. Carol Mosely Braun of Illinois and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York - seem to be stuck in a pack at this point, with none but Kerry, Gephardt and the well-known (from his 2000 vice presidential run) Lieberman showing measurable strength.

Dean may not hold center stage for long. Retired four-star Gen. Wesley Clark, a critic of Bush's foreign policy, has said he will make his plans known within two weeks. - possibly when he delivers a speech at the University of Iowa titled "The American Leadership Role in a Changing World." If Clark does indeed enter the race, all bets would be off.

But for now, Howard Dean at least has his foot in the door, which in itself confounds the conventional wisdom about the race for the Democratic nomination. Other surprises - perhaps resulting from tonight's debate - undoubtedly lie ahead. The nomination is likely be be decided before St. Patrick's Day next year, but Dean's surge shows that there is plenty of time between then and now for the unexpected to occur.