Data points: the direct mail cannibalization question.

Do direct mail campaigns steal customers away from the retail channel? That's a popular complaint among resellers, but SoftMail Direct president Bob Vogel says post-campaign sales statistics suggest just the opposite--retail sales tend to rise after a large-scale direct mail drop. The chart above tracks weekly sell-through for a "typical business-to-business product" whose publisher sent out two major direct mail offers a month apart. The result: Retail sales jumped significantly two to three weeks after each offer.

Vogel points out that it's always hard to isolate direct mail as a single influence on channel sales, because price, seasonality, and other promotional efforts usually complicate the picture. "But the most conservative interpretation of these numbers," says Vogel, "is that the direct mail effort didn't cannibalize channel sales."

When software companies mail to lists of registered users who originally bought products at retail, Vogel adds, "a good rule of thumb is that whatever the direct mail response rate is, another 50% to 100% of that number will buy through retail."

Bob Vogel, president, SoftMail Direct, 120 DeFreest Dr., Troy, N.Y. 12180; 518/283-8444. E-mail: [e-mail].