Daniel Erikson's 'Cuba wars' couldn't be more timely.

Less than two months after Cuba marked the 50th anniversary of the Castro regime, the Americas Society--in conjunction with the Council of the Americas--launched Daniel Erikson's new book, "The Cuba Wars: Fidel Castro, the United States and the Next Revolution."

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The Feb. 18 event in New York was standing-room only as Erikson, senior associate for U.S. policy at Inter-American Dialogue, discussed his 352-page book.

Published by Bloomsbury Press (ISBN 978-1-59691-434-6, hardcover $28.00), "Cuba Wars" details the multilevel conflict between the U.S. government and Castro as Washington racks up a long track record of failed diplomatic, legislative, propaganda and financial efforts to spark regime change in Cuba.

Erikson, a native of Maine, first went to Cuba as a Harvard grad student in 2000. He recalled being impressed by what he called "a vibrant, complicated, multiracial society that was instantly recognizable as Latin American but very different from the other countries I had traveled in."

Since then, he's returned to Cuba 13 times, not counting a separate visit to the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay. He noted the superficial changes Raul has carried out so far (such as letting Cubans own cellphones and computers,) but stressed that today, "Cuba is still very far from embracing a China or Vietnam model of economic transition."

He predicts Raul will likely implement "modest economic reforms, but very little in the way of a political opening."

Erikson also mentioned Raul's more successful efforts in the international relations realm so far, meeting with the leaders of China, Brazil and Russia. Even the European Union is beginning to reaching out to Cuba.

For the time being, Havana's icy relationship with Washington continues to be the glaring exception to Raul's diplomatic progress.

As Erikson noted in his book, President Bush--under pressure from Cuban-Americans--launched only one major initiative on U.S.-Cuba policy: the creation of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba. In 2004, that commission released a 423-page report full of suggestions on how to hasten the downfall of the Castro regime.

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OBSERVATIONS FROM HAVANA

Aside from tightening travel restrictions for those legally allowed to visit Cuba and various nation-building measures under a post-Castro scenario, one of the report's recommendations became the subject of ridicule in Cuba.

Erikson said he came across a billboard in Spanish that said "Thank you, Mr. President, but we're already vaccinated."

The ad made a mockery of the commission's suggestion that all Cuban children under the age of 5 be vaccinated during a hypothetical Cuban transition to democracy.

Erikson says the regime has also exploited for propaganda purposes another of the so-called Powell Commission's proposals: that a future democratic government permit former property owners to reclaim their expropriated houses and buildings. Cartoons on Cuban TV claimed this would effectively evict residents from their current homes.

Erikson also criticized the Bush administration's failed efforts to "multilateralize" its isolation policy against Cuba, since most U.S. allies are already engaged with Cuba and have investments there--even Israel, one of the very few countries that consistently sides with the United States at the UN General Assembly's annual condemnation of the embargo.

[The book has extensive footnotes and cites among other sources Larry Luxner's exclusive interview with Ricardo Alarcon, president of Cuba's National Assembly. That interview appeared in the May 2004 issue of CubaNews.]

A key part of "Cuba Wars" is Erikson's treatment of South Florida's Cuban exile community and the success Jorge Mas Canosa and other hardliners had over the years in making both Democrats and Republicans tremble at the idea of lifting the embargo.

CUBA A 'QUASI-RELIGIOUS' ISSUE AMONG EXILES

At the same time, the community has also endured a few PR nightmares, most notably the Elian Gonzalez episode. Then there was the fight over the Latin Grammy awards, which had to be held in Los Angeles instead of Miami in 2000 and 2001 because of threats from local exiles incensed by the inclusion of Buena Vista Social Club and other musicians from Cuba itself.

One of Erikson's interviewees, unsuccessful Congressional candidate Joe Garcia, summed up why things will not substantially change among Miami's exiles anytime soon.

"Cuba is almost a quasi-religious issue," said the Cuban American National Foundation's former executive director. "The problem with that religious element is that it can't be tested because it has no give-and-take. The embargo is more a religious creed than an effective U.S. policy. The good thing about a creed is that you don't have to prove it. The problem is, how do you change it?"

In arguing for a new Cuba policy initiative, Erickson extended Garcia's criticism, stressing that Washington has planned for the wrong scenario with Cuba.

"What we've seen is a gradual communist succession on the island," he said, "and that means the United States needs to stop indulging in fantasies of radical change in Cuba, and begin to take a very hard look at the realities that currently exist on the ground.

"As a member of a younger generation of U.S. foreign policy analysts, I believe that the Cuba issue requires both a new set of eyes and a fresh series of approaches." .

Details: Dan Erikson, Inter-American Dialogue, 1211 Conn. Ave NW #510, Washington, DC 20036. Tel: [phone]. Fax: [phone]. Email: derikson@thedialogue. org. URL: www.thedialogue.org.