Danger outlook: Lots of fuel for the fires.

Byline: Scott Maben The Register-Guard

A lively wildfire season is likely on both sides of the Cascades this year.

Spring rainfall is expected to be nearly normal, but severe drought conditions still will extend across most of the Northwest, according to a preliminary fire danger outlook prepared by the federal Northwest Interagency Coordination Center in Portland.

Despite those predictions, fire officials do not plan any significant increase in firefighting forces. Federal and state agencies will mobilize roughly the same number of firefighters, planes and engines as last year.

"Are we making plans for a very severe fire season? You bet we are," said John Boro with the state Department of Forestry's fire program.

But, Boro added, "I don't necessarily say the sky is falling yet. Our obligation is to plan for that above-normal fire season. ... I've also been around long enough to know that Mother Nature has a way of evening things out."

The 2004 season was a calm one, largely because lightning strikes were followed by rain and cool weather, giving firefighters time to put out fires before they erupted into unstoppable blazes.

"We could have the driest year on Earth as long as we don't get any fire starts," said Rex Holloway, spokesman for the U.S. Forest Service's regional office in Portland.

No one knows if this summer's thunderstorms will be mostly wet or dry.

But an analysis of climate data since 1970 indicates a moderate to high probability of one to three episodes of lightning with no rain, with the first coming around July 18, the Portland center's predictive services office said.

Fire officials worry that forests will be extremely dry and prone to catastrophic fires because so little rain and snow fell during the winter.

Nationally, the fire danger looks to be greatest in Oregon, Washington, northern Idaho and western Montana because of extremely low snowpacks in the region, said Janelle Smith, spokeswoman for the Boise-based National Interagency Fire Center, which dispatches firefighters and equipment nationwide.

The potential for fires is lower than usual in the Southwest and California because of a wetter-than-normal winter in that region, Smith said.

That may spare the Northwest from competing with other states for firefighting resources, she said.

An ominous sign of how dry it has been came before the recent rains when a series of small grass fires and controlled burns in Oregon began to creep away into surrounding brush, Boro said. It's far too early to see such behavior, he said.

Also, crews that burn logging slash and set "prescribed fires" to clear brush have witnessed "total consumption on logs and large limbs" this spring, he said.

"It takes more than a week or two of periodic rain to make any effect on those large fuels," Boro said, adding that no amount of rain this spring can be expected to reverse how dry the logs are.

"Not that I'm not enjoying looking out my window seeing it rain some."

Dead standing timber and logs typically take months to dry out and require the same amount of time to reclaim moisture, explained Mike Fitzpatrick, predictive services coordinator in Portland.

"When we get rain, it certainly will help," Fitzpatrick said. "But when we get extended drying like we've had, they tend to get dry through and through. It takes a considerable amount of time for them to moisten up."

The probability is low that enough rain will fall now through June to return forests to normal conditions, he said.

Federal agencies will be able to draw on more than $1 billion in fire suppression funds this year - roughly the same amount as in 2004.

The federal government this summer plans to contract for use of seven P-3 air tankers, which dump loads of fire retardant.

The planes will be sent wherever needed in the U.S.

The fleet remains down from 2002, when the government canceled contracts to lease 33 air tankers after the National Transportation Safety Board raised safety questions.

Three other air tankers that are to be tested this year for structural integrity during fires will be available to fly retardant missions if needed. Federal agencies also may activate eight C-130s, which also can drop retardant on blazes.

The state forestry department also will have its normal firefighting contingent in place. That includes 700 seasonal firefighters who will be posted in strategic locations around Oregon and 700 permanent employees who can help if needed.

Between 280 and 300 private firefighting crews, each with 20 members, will be available for hire in the region.

Both the state and federal agencies use these private contractors.

The state Department of Corrections also will provide more than 300 inmates to help battle blazes.

Up to 7,400 Oregon National Guard soldiers and airmen will be available to pitch in if regular firefighting forces are depleted this summer, Guard spokesman Capt. Mike Braibish said.

The Guard's five Chinook helicopters, used to move crews and equipment and drop water on flames, are deployed to Afghanistan. But up to 12 of the smaller Blackhawk helicopters that also can be fitted with water buckets could be drafted into service if needed, Braibish said.