DVD TECH DUEL FEARED TOO MANY CHOICES CAN HURT SALES.

Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

SANTA MONICA - With record numbers of consumers now staunch DVD converts, entertainment industry leaders said Tuesday that next- generation technology can keep the DVD boom going strong for the next 10 years.

The key lies in getting consumers, many of whom bought their first DVD players in the last two years or so, to embrace high-definition DVD, which is high-resolution video and audio technology representing a clear quality improvement over the standard DVD.

``After hanging onto a VHS player for 15 years, it wasn't a difficult decision for consumers to opt for a new DVD player. It may prove a lot more difficult for consumers to justify replacing a DVD player they have had for only a few years,'' Buena Vista Home Entertainment President Bob Chapek said at the North America DVD Forum held at Shutters on the Beach hotel.

But there is more than one technology vying to take the industry by storm and most major studios have not yet committed either contender: Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.

Blu-Ray has more than a dozen backers including Sony Corp., Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Sharp, Panasonic, Hitachi, and TDK. HD-DVD was developed by Toshiba in partnership with NEC Corp. with Toshiba aiming to sell laptop computers loaded with the technology by next year.

Chapek warned that if the industry introduces dueling high-definition technologies, it may turn off consumers who won't want to make a mistake by purchasing a potentially weaker format that doesn't make it in the long run like Betamax, which lost a duel with VHS in the 1980s that rendered Betamax machines essentially useless.

Still, Chapek said the improved format will give the studios ``a chance to keep the wild ride of DVD physical media going for another 10-year installment,'' making their catalogs new again and adding vitality to newer theatrical hits.

Marsha King, Warner Home Video's executive vice president/general manager told attendees that the international market for DVD is rapidly expanding with the number of DVD households expected to grow 17.4 percent to 449 million by 2008.

China in particular is poised for tremendous growth with an expected 27.3 percent jump through 2008. But such countries as China, Russia, and India are hotbeds for piracy so pervasive that it will be very difficult to ever establish legitimate retail distribution in those parts of the world.

Domestically, King said DVD software sales are being driven up by households that have more than one player in them. Last year, homes with one player bought an average of 11 discs, homes with two players bought around 17 titles while three-player homes purchased an average of 22 discs.

Greg Hernandez, [phone]

greg.hernandez(at)dailynews.com