DUMB LUCK: SUPERSTITIONS MAKE IMPACT IN MARKETS.

Byline: Deborah Adamson Daily News Staff Writer

When former Granada Hills High School quarterback John Elway led the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl victory last month, Green Bay Packers fans weren't the only ones crying.

That's because for the previous 13 years, teams from the National Football Conference had won the Super Bowl. And in that time, America experienced the strongest bull market in its history.

So a win last month by an American Football Conference team, the Broncos, was a sign that the run is over. Or so say investors who believe there is a correlation between the NFL and Wall Street.

With the unpredictability of the stock markets, and the fact that billions of dollars are riding on their every movement, superstitions like the NFC-AFC indicator have flourished. The superstitions are based on sporting events, political events and astrology, to name just a few.

And they're proliferating, even if there's no logical correlation to nonbelievers between the markets and the events that allegedly predict them.

``People notice things that are occurring at the same time and imagine some sort of causation going on,'' said William Jennings, chairman of the finance, real estate and insurance department at California State University, Northridge. ``It's not a prediction. It's circumstance.''

Still, for many investors, they're something that helps make order out of the chaos.

Some of the more popular Wall Street superstitions are based on presidential elections. One of the most frequently quoted: The first year after a presidential election will be bullish.

That worked in 1993 (when the Dow Jones industrial average increased 16.85 percent) and 1997 (25.20 percent), but not in former President Reagan's first

year (the Dow lost 10.10 percent in 1981) or former President Carter's first (a 17.03 percent loss in 1977).

The second half of the presidential predictor is that while the first year of a presidential term is bullish, the second year is a bear. That doesn't bode well for 1998, but then again it didn't stop 1994 (4.99 percent) or 1986 (23.44) from being bull markets.

Those who don't trust presidents are turning to the stars for answers.

Henry Weingarten bills himself as a financial astrologer. He runs a private investment portfolio called the Astrologers Fund and believes that lunar eclipses on Feb. 26 and March 12 will lead to ``strong corrections'' in the world markets.

He thinks there will be a minimum of a 1,000-point drop in the Dow by spring.

Rebecca Nolan, editor of the Financial Astrology newsletter, agrees.

She forecasts a major correction in late March or early April.

While most people might scoff at her trade, Nolan's newsletter has attracted a following of more than 12,000 in three years, she said, of which almost half are Americans.

But Jennings remains unconvinced: ``I suspect that (throwing) darts (at the stock tables) may be as good as the astrologers.''

Another alleged predictor that gets a lot of attention is the month of January itself. Many Wall Street pundits say the stock market goes as January goes.

That's been true for the past nine years, although January 1995's modest gain of 0.23 percent was no indicator of the 36.7 percent increase to come that year. The last time a January didn't mirror its year was 1988.

Oh, and for the record: The Dow lost 0.70 percent last month.

So for those keeping score at home, that's three ``indicators'' that say 1998 will be a bear market. And we'll have January, President Clinton and John Elway to blame for it.

Setting the tone

Some investors believe that as Janauary goes, so goes the year. That's been true for the Dow Jones industrial average in nine of the last 10 years and if it's true in 1998, expect a bear market for the rest of the year.

JANUARY 12 MONTH

PERCENT PERCENT

YEAR RETURN RETURN

1988 -2.34 8.15

1989 9.22 28.38

1990 -7.81 -6.31

1991 4.82 21.38

1992 1.61 4.06

1993 0.07 16.85

1994 5.98 4.99

1995 0.23 36.70

1996 4.28 27.38

1997 5.80 25.20

1998 -0.70 ???

-SOURCE: Bloomberg News

CAPTION(S):

3 Photos, Chart

Photo: (1) CAN astrologers like Jeane Dixon predict the market's future?

(2--Color) WILL the Superbowl winner determine who wins on Wall Street? (SUPER BOWL XXXII logo)

(3--Color) DOES a presidential election guarantee Bullish attitudes? (Bill Clinton)

Chart: Setting the tone (See Text)