DRAM ASP Forecast Experiences Sharp Increase in Subscriptions.

Business Editors and High Tech Writers

CUPERTINO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 14, 2000

With DRAM ASPs firming up in the recent weeks, the DRAM ASP forecast published by Advanced Forecasting, Inc. (AFI), is getting increased attention from its current subscribers. "The accuracy of our model has not only resulted in a dramatic increase in new subscriptions from both sides of the bargaining table, but our current subscribers are now requesting that the model will be adapted to their specific products," said Dr. Moshe Handelsman, president of AFI, a Cupertino, CA-based Semiconductor Forecasting firm.

The DRAM ASP forecast published by AFI provides its users a forecast of changes in direction in DRAM ASPs three months before they occur. "To have early identification of changes in ASPs is extremely valuable to both memory vendors and procurement divisions. We can show the model predicting these changes very accurately going back five years. No other model we know of can show the same accuracy," said Handelsman.

With millions of dollars at stake in procurement negotiations, Dr. Handelsman said that utilization of the forecast within current subscribers has increased twofold since the peak of DRAM ASP in November 1999. "I think this is in part due to the fact that this is the only forecast of its kind."

Handelsman went on to note that in addition to its unparalleled track record of accuracy in calling the turns of DRAM ASPs in advance, the model distinguishes itself from other models because of the methodology used to produce the forecast. "We provide a purely objective and quantitative forecast. We do not use inventories, product line data, fab capacity utilization or similar factors as input to our equations. And certainly we do not employ human opinion. Instead we use the same methodology that has allowed us to predict 90% of the turning points in the IC industry-at-large since 1986. It gives a view of what we term 'true demand' ".

The DRAM ASP forecast is published monthly and comes with a three month full refund guarantee period, another point of distinction says Handelsman. "How many market research companies offer a full refund guarantee period for forecasts? I know of no other but this guarantee. It shows the confidence we have in our model."

AFI provides quantitative forecasts of all ICs and discrete devices, semiconductor equipment (Front-End and ATE), disk drives, PCBs, Fab Capacity Utilization, Wafer Shipments and DRAM ASPs. AFI is the only forecast organization that guarantees its forecasting services with a full refund period.

More information about AFI's methodology, publications, and services is available online at http://www.adv-forecast.com.

Note: A sample of the DRAM ASP Forecast can be obtained by contacting Advanced Forecasting, Inc.