DRAFT LOOKS LIKE POTLUCK; AFTER DUNCAN, IT'S UP FOR GRABS.

Byline: Gary Washburn Daily News Staff Writer

The only certainty is Tim Duncan.

Besides that, two words describe the 1997 NBA draft: complete unpredictability.

This year's draft hardly contains the strength it did a year ago. It's so weak after the top three picks that the Lakers dealt their first-round pick for George McCloud, who won't likely play for the team next season.

The Clippers, with the 14th pick, have no idea who will be remaining with that selection. In fact, after Duncan, a lock No. 1 pick by the San Antonio Spurs, the draft is a crapshoot.

``Since we don't have a first-round pick, we haven't examined the first round,'' Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said. ``But we didn't feel it was a particularly strong draft. The difficulty is the 20th to 40th picks.''

It's evident around the NBA that this year's crop of rookies will likely not make as much impact as in previous years. The reason: Likely premium picks this year left school and entered the draft last year.

Underclassmen such as Minnesota's Stephon Marbury, Vancouver's Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Samaki Walker of the Mavericks and the Clippers' Lorenzen Wright came out earlier than expected, making this draft weaker.

Meanwhile, a slew of underclassmen, sensing the draft's vulnerability, bolted school. However, three stayed - North Carolina's Antawn Jamison, and Paul Pierce and Raef LaFrenz of Kansas. Several NBA teams were hoping those three would leave school. Instead, it left Texas Tech's Tony Battie, Colorado's Chauncey Billups and high schooler Tracy McGrady as premium picks.

``The college game has suffered,'' Clippers player personnel director Jeff Weltman said. ``Players are coming out early and are not as developed. Maybe 10 years ago, a player would have come out who could immediately have helped. Now you have to look at the pick helping a year or two down the line. I wouldn't say it's a weak draft, but it's more spread out.''

It's so spread out that many teams likely won't draft for need but rather the best player available. The Clippers need a center but are seriously looking at guards Jacque Vaughn and Brevin Knight.

The three-year NBA mandated rookie contract is causing underclassmen to leave a year or two earlier than expected. The goal is to get the three years over with and then sign for whatever money desired. After this season, the first of the three-year rookies will become free agents, including the Clippers' Brent Barry and Minnesota budding star Kevin Garnett, who is believed to want more than $100 million to re-sign.

Ironically, the Charlotte Hornets, who will host Wednesday's draft, don't have a pick and general manager Bob Bass is content with not getting involved.

``If we were ever going to miss a draft, this is the one I'd rather miss,'' Bass said. ``I don't see a whole lot of people I like. The thing we did in Chicago (pre-draft camp) was look at players to bring into camp on make-good contracts. The way this draft is, some of the players who don't get drafted at all, you might like them more than some of the players that other teams drafted.

``You've got to sign these guys for three years, and there's teams that just don't want to tie themselves down for three years on a guy you don't know (how he) is going to turn out.''

So teams are either waiting for free agents to become eligible July 1 or even for next year's draft to grab that impact player. The NBA Draft is never an exact science and this year mistakes will be excusable.

Duncan ranks with Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson as sure No. 1 picks. Other teams in the past have entertained trade offers for the first pick. The Spurs would do the same, but the problem is no one's close to sure-fire as Duncan.

``I think after a certain point, you have to go for the best player available,'' Clippers general manager Elgin Baylor said. ``That's what we have to do. I don't think it's a great draft or real deep draft. There are somIe players that are very good but not going to turn things around. All you can do is try to get somebody to help your team.''

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Photo: (color) Wake Forest center Tim Duncan is projected to be taken No. 1 in the NBA draft by San Antonio.

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